By Will Miles
Arik Gilbert Transfers… Again
The news came on Sunday that Arik Gilbert had decided to re-enter the transfer portal.
On its face, this isn’t a huge loss for Florida. The Gators have depth at tight end, tight ends coach Tim Brewster is one of the best recruiters on staff and Kyle Pitts aside, very few tight ends are difference makers at the college level anyway.
But I still felt this one. It’s not because of Gilbert specifically. It’s because the hope for Dan Mullen ever since it became clear that he wasn’t going to compete with Kirby Smart or Nick Saban at the same level for high school recruits was that he would make that up in the transfer portal. Gilbert and Demarkcus Bowman were symbolic of that hope, where you had a much higher chance of success from a transfer because you already knew what he could do.
But if you’re going to hit at a 50% rate on 5-star talent, you can do that with high school recruiting and still be okay. And while Mullen has had significant success in the transfer portal (Van Jefferson, Trevon Grimes, Jonathan Greenard, Adam Shuler), the jury is still out on the 5-star guys he has brought in thus far (Brenton Cox, Justin Shorter, Lorenzo Lingard and even Bowman).
There isn’t much margin for error when you start talking about competing with Alabama and Georgia even if you’re recruiting at their level. Gilbert extended that margin for the Gators and his leaving now narrows it significantly.
Reasons and Privacy
There was lots of buzz regarding Gilbert’s announcement to transfer and whether it had to do with grades or personal issues as opposed to not wanting to be a Gator.
I’m not really here to speculate about that stuff. What I do want to do is suggest that while we live in a society where everybody believes they have a right to information the minute that it is available, there should be some things that we don’t necessarily need to know.
I have no idea why Gilbert has made the decisions that he has made the past couple of months. I have no idea why he decided to leave LSU. What I do know is that I care more about Arik Gilbert as a person than I do about what he can contribute to the Gators program. If that means he contributes somewhere else, then good luck to him.
But I have no right to understand the thinking that is behind his transfer any more than you would have the right to understand my thinking if I decided to change jobs. The truth is that he gets to make decisions that he thinks are in his best short and long-term interests. Instead of being upset at Gilbert, a little bit of empathy would go a long way.
After all, how many of us went back on our commitments at 19 years old? The only difference is we didn’t have a rabid fan base like LSU’s or Florida’s asking why when we did it.
Playmakers for 2021
There’s no doubt though that the loss of Gilbert will impact Florida in 2021 and beyond.
He was a matchup nightmare who was going to force defenses into similar no-win decisions that Florida’s opponents had to make last year. That isn’t to say Gilbert will be as good as Kyle Pitts (no one will), but it is to say that defenses would have to account for him.
Now who do you account for? Trevon Grimes, Kadarius Toney, Jacob Copeland and Kyle Pitts combined for 50 of the Gators 75 explosive plays in 2020. They also accounted for 24 of the 55 explosives in 2019.
The reason those four were able to successfully replace the seniors who left after 2019 is that they already had shown explosive play ability coming into this season. Aside from Copeland’s 8 explosive plays, the next highest returning player on the list is Malik Davis (6).
That may be why you’ve heard some call for Davis to be put in the slot in 2021, which may end up happening. But there’s a big difference between being a slot receiver against a safety and running a wheel route against a linebacker.
Instead, Florida is going to have to find explosive plays elsewhere. Whether that comes from Xzavier Henderson (1), Justin Shorter (2) or some combination of Keon Zipperer (2) and Kemore Gamble (3) remains to be seen.
What is clear is that Florida doesn’t have near the track record for explosive plays that they had coming back in 2020, even with all of the graduations from the 2019 receiving corps.
Defense?
I haven’t really heard all that much about the defense this spring. I’m not sure whether that is a good thing or not.
Certainly, defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is going to benefit from having a full spring and fall camp with these guys. And the graduation and departure of some of the defensive backs is probably considered addition by subtraction considering some of the struggles deep in 2020.
But you have to suspect that had the guys behind them been significantly better, they would have seen the field last year. That means that development of the scheme – particularly in the spring – is going to be paramount.
So I know fans are seeing videos of offensive players making defensive players look bad in tackling drills. First, you want to see that because you’d rather them make mistakes in practice early in spring camp than be making those same mistakes when the lights come on in September.
But I think we should be much more concerned with the players coming out of spring understanding the scheme and being prepared to react without thinking too much. We saw that progression for Mohamoud Diabate last season, where after the break from COVID after the A&M game, he looked like a different player at linebacker.
Tackles are going to be missed, particularly in an environment where contact is limited. Guys are going to get beat deep sometimes. I think you live with those and probably even expect them.
But having guys running uncovered down the field for wide open touchdowns just can’t happen, not if you want to be a championship defense.
Instagram spring
Maybe I’m old (I am), or maybe it’s because spring practice started so early this year, but I can’t remember being this apathetic about spring events in a really long time.
Part of it is because much of the media has been kept out of practices, left only to parse together information from Instagram videos released by the team. But I think part of it is that we all know that 2020 was the Gators shot and now 2021 is going to be a year to try and develop players and build for 2022 and 2023.
Perhaps then it’s appropriate that this spring practice is being shared on Instagram. After all, that’s where you go to show people your photos that are doctored to make you look your best, often not the way you look in reality. Florida is going to have some struggles this year, much of which is probably tied to offensive line play and QB reads.
They’re not going to share anything this spring that gives us much of a feel as to how those two things are coming together. We’ll see some pretty deep throws and potentially some OL drills, but we aren’t going to see communication when the defense runs a stunt or a QB who has to hit his hot read against a zone blitz.
I’m sure those things are going on in practice, but we’re just not going to see them. Because you don’t put anything ugly you don’t want anybody else to see on Instagram.
Baseball rights the ship
Last week I was bullish on the baseball team shaking off its opening 1-2 start against Miami and they have made me look smarter than I typically look.
Since that start, the team is 5-0, with two wins over North Florida and three more against Samford. The pitching is still struggling, as the Gators gave up nearly 5 runs per game in that stretch. Of course, they scored 10.6.
Still, you aren’t a national championship-level team giving up 5 runs per game. The good news is that the pitching staff – which issued 25 walks and 5 HBP in three games against Miami – has surrendered only 13 walks and 2 HBP in the five games since.
That’s still too many free bases given up, especially considering the Gators only walked 47 batters in 17 games last season (157 IP). But, for a team with sky-high expectations coming into the year to right the ship following what had to be a disappointing opening series against the Hurricanes shows this is going to be a resilient bunch.
But resilient and championship are very different things, and the teeth of the schedule – and the ability of the pitching staff to show improved control – is going to tell that tale.
Softball still undefeated
Softball continues rolling, as the lady Gators defeated UNF, McNeese State and Louisville twice to improve to 12-0.
The Gators gave up one run total in the four games, and did so with a different pitcher every time. Natalie Lugo pitched four scoreless innings against UNF with a scoreless inning put up by Rylee Trlicek. Elizabeth Hightower gave up 1 run in 7 innings in the first game against Louisville and closed out the second with a scoreless inning in the second. Katie Chronister pitched 6 scoreless innings in that game against the Cardinals and then Lugo and Hightower combined for the 1-0 shutout of McNeese State.
The reason I list all of those pitchers is because Trlicek, Lugo, Chronister and Hightower give the Gators a lot of options moving forward. This team is really, really good for a lot of reasons. But one of the things that I think has hindered them from time-to-time has been an overreliance on Kelly Barnhill.
Barnhill was undoubtedly a star, but it meant less opportunities for Lugo, Chronister and Hightower. The signs early this season is that Florida may not have Barnhill’s firepower at the top, but seems to have a much more balanced staff.
Basketball beats Kentucky at Rupp
After Florida put up a stinkbomb at home against Kentucky earlier this season, you could have told me any outcome in the rematch at Rupp Arena and I would have believed you.
The fact that the Gators came out victorious is one thing. But to come back after Kentucky jumped out to a 26-16 lead in the first half is quite another.
The Gators did manage to cut that lead to one at the half. And Florida was also likely pretty lucky considering that they shot 47% from three while the Wildcats stunk it up at 20%. But Florida shot 45% from three in the loss to Kentucky in Gainesville. The difference in that one is that Kentucky shot 46% from three in that one.
I said in last week’s O&B Musings that the difference between the Elite 8 team that Mike White had in 2016-2017 is on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 66.5 points per game compared to over 70 for this year at the time.
Well, the Gators have just won three straight, and have done so giving up 63, 57 and 67 points, after losing two straight when surrendering 72 and 75.
The equation is pretty clear. This team can score (averaging 75.9 points per game). If they can limit the opposition at the other end, a March run is still possible.
Joakim Noah Retires
News came out this week that Joakim Noah is retiring. The fact that he’s going to do it with the Bulls, and that Billy Donovan is now the coach of the Bulls, really takes Noah full circle.
Noah was obviously a key cog in the Gators only two National Championship basketball teams. While all of the guys on that team had distinct personalities, Noah was the one whose personality rose above the rest. He also is the guy who turned down a chance at being the number one overall pick in 2006 to come back and win a second title with the Gators.
That move likely cost him millions of dollars, as the first pick in the ’06 draft (Andrea Bargnani) signed a 4-year deal for $21 million while Noah (the 9th pick in the ’07 draft) signed for 4 years and $10 million. Of course, Bargnani would flame out while Noah would make back that money on the back-end, with career earnings of $136 million between the Bulls, Knicks, Grizzlies and Clippers.
Never a big scorer who hung his hat on the defensive end, injuries robbed Noah of what made him special pretty much as soon as he left Chicago. But he was voted first team All-NBA in the 2013-2014 season, indicating he was one of the top-5 players in the league, something not many NBA players can say, certainly not while only averaging 12.6 points per game.
The reality is that had Noah been on the Golden State Warriors with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, I think we’d think of him a lot like Draymond Green. While Green has faded pretty significantly the last couple of years, there is going to be talk of the Hall of Fame for him because of his contributions to that team.
Instead, Noah’s best years came with an injured Derek Rose and a too-young Jimmy Butler by his side so there won’t be any talk of the Hall of Fame based solely on his NBA play, but he should get serious consideration once you consider his contribution at the college level.
Regardless of the accolades, Noah is always going to have a special place in Gators fans’ hearts. He embodied the love that those guys seemed to have for one another, and certainly he helped set a standard that no other Gator team has yet been able to match.
That’s quite a legacy.
The run of the “Oh Fours”
Speaking of legacies, the end of Noah’s career has made me think back to the “oh fours”: Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer and Taurean Green, along with sharpshooter Lee Humphrey.
I have to admit that I was surprised by Florida’s run to the championship in 2006. I suspected that UCLA’s pedigree would probably win out. I was even more surprised at Florida taking on Ohio State like they did. Greg Oden scored 25 points, but that was mostly in one-on-one matchups on Horford and Noah, who allowed the Gators to prevent other Buckeyes from hurting them too much.
But looking back now with everyone’s NBA career either at the end or winding down, I think it’s pretty clear that those Gators teams were actually the more talented squads.
Florida demolished a UCLA team in ’06 that sported five guys who were drafted by the NBA who logged heavy minutes in that game. The Ohio State team they beat in ’07 only sported three guys who were drafted, but those were all first rounders and Greg Oden (1st overall) and Mike Conley (4th overall) were significant talents.
But Brewer (7th), Noah (9th) and Horford (3rd) were all selected early by the NBA as well and all have gone on to significant NBA careers. It’s also easy to forget that Green (52nd), Chris Richard (41st) and Marreese Speights (16th) were all drafted as well.
Oden’s NBA career was obviously underwhelming, Conley is still going strong and has had a solid career, while Daequan Cook has been a role player. Darren Collison, Arron Afflalo, Luke Mbah a Moute, Ryan Hollins and Jordan Farmar all had varying degrees of NBA success. But none of these players made an All-Star team.
The win-shares for the Ohio State and UCLA players combined in the pros is 223.2. The combined win-shares of the “oh fours” is 176.7 along with two All-NBA selections.
I think with Brewer coaching with the Pelicans, Noah’s career ending and Horford finishing his career in Oklahoma City that there might be a desire to frame these players as “college guys”. Certainly, their time together at Florida will define how many think of them, and in a very fond way.
But these guys were damn fine basketball players, and proved it in the pros and at Florida. The championships at Florida are quite a legacy, but they’ve built a standalone legacy since leaving Gainesville as well.