(Note from Ray — This was sent in last week and got lost in the mail, my apologies for the delay in sending it along)
By Will Miles
How in the hell did we lose to Kentucky?
According to ESPN, when Florida was up 60-45 on Kentucky with just less than 10 minutes left, the Gators’ had a win probability of 97.9 percent.
As has often been the case this year though, the Gators managed to underperform expectations and were unable to finish off the game, losing 71-70. More than that though, when Kentucky started on its run, it became pretty clear that the Wildcats were able to repeatedly get good shots while the Gators struggled to generate their own.
I’ve heard people point towards the youth of this team, but Andrew Nembhard is a sophomore, as are Keyontae Johnson and Noah Locke. With two full seasons under their belt – and with a wounded opponent on the ropes at home – you’d expect them to be able to go for the jugular.
Instead, the Gators ended the game with a missed (badly) layup and two turnovers. Had you told me going into the day that Florida would lose on a last second putback to Kentucky, I would have said fans would have been pleased.
Somehow, this team figured out a way to prove me wrong.
Fire Mike White and the Twitter/Facebook Divide
Of course, following a game like this, the kneejerk reaction is to blame the coach.
I actually think that’s a pretty fair thing to do in this one. White only had one timeout left with more than four minutes left. Considering the Gators had been ahead the entire game, it’s unclear to me why he didn’t have more to put his team in favorable matchups and help draw up plays in key situations.
But one thing I noticed after the game was that there is a significant divide between Twitter and Facebook regarding the vitriol towards White. Twitter wanted him fired after the loss to Florida State back in November. But I saw a Facebook poll with over 500 responses that was 70/30 in favor of giving him another year right after the loss to Kentucky.
Now, Twitter always tends to be more acerbic. If you want to get a pulse on the people who watch every minute of every game religiously, it’s a great place to go. But it is also dominated by younger people. As was pointed out to me in only the way Twitter can when I tweeted about the poll, Facebook is for old people.
But that’s why Mike White is going to get another year at least. Facebook is for older people, and older people have money. Those are the people who – by and large – end up paying the buyout when the university wants to get rid of a Will Muschamp or a Jim McElwain.
Judging by what I saw, they’re not ready to write the check to jettison Mike White just yet.
#1 Florida baseball team now 16-0
In happier news, the Florida baseball team improved to 16-0 to start the season.
The Gators are ranked first in the country and are a huge threat to win the Gators second National Championship since 2017. That team relied fairly heavily on experience, as starters Alex Faedo, Dalton Guthrie, Mike Rivera, J.J. Schwartz, and Ryan Larsen were all Juniors or older.
This year’s team is a bit different.
The starting pitcher on Sunday – Hunter Barco – is a Freshman. So are catcher Nathan Hickey and shortstop Josh Rivera. Adding to the youth movement were sophomores Jud Fabian, Jacob Young, Kendrick Calilao, Corey Acton and relievers Christian Scott and Ben Specht.
What Coach Kevin O’Sullivan has done with this program is truly remarkable. And the great news for Gators fans is that this team – because of all of its youth – is just scratching the surface of this team’s ability.
Can we please get the Dodgers jersey?
One thing you can count on is that Florida – or any college program – will find a way to make a buck if its available. There’s a reason that college football now allows its teams to sell alcohol in the stadium.
So I can’t for the life of me understand how I can’t order Gator baseball’s throwback jersey.
I’m not the only one. Everyone I have talked to or interacted with has expressed a desire to own the Dodgers-style jersey that the Gators are wearing on Sundays. And somehow, it’s the one piece of merchandise not available at any apparel website.
If you haven’t seen them yet, you need to Google them because they are clean. And here’s hoping that I get the opportunity to rep the number one ranked baseball team up here in Philadelphia soon.
Brewster and Recruiting
Well, it didn’t take long but the hiring of Tim Brewster as tight ends coach appears to be paying off.
He has already secured the commitment of Gage Wilcox (248th ranked nationally) and Nick Elksnis (380th ranked nationally) at the tight end position.
But more than anything, Brewster has brought an energy to the program on the recruiting trail that has been missing, even in recent years under Mullen.
Just follow him on Twitter and you’ll see what the recruits see. He extolls the virtues of the school at every turn. He Tweets about commitments that are about to come to fire up the fan base. He goes on the Stadium and Gale podcast and can’t contain his enthusiasm for the program.
I’ve been critical of Mullen’s recruiting since he’s arrived in Gainesville. It’s certainly better than McElwain’s was and more balanced than Muschamp’s. But one thing that’s been missing with the past two Gator teams is the ability to consistently take over a game based on physical ability alone.
The job isn’t done yet, and time will tell on where the 2021 class ends up. But right now, the hire of Brewster looks like a grand slam, not just a home run.
2021 Recruiting – Let’s pump the brakes somewhat
Speaking of the 2021 class, the Gators are currently ranked second nationally. Brewster has made a big difference, as has last year’s addition of defensive line coach David Turner. So too has the 21-5 record the last two years.
But let’s not put Florida at Ohio State or Georgia’s level in recruiting just yet.
While it is true that the Gators are ranked second, it’s also true that Florida has 14 commits compared to Ohio State’s 10, Clemson’s nine or Notre Dame’s seven. This time of year, it’s probably more instructive to look at average recruit ranking rather than point total because there’s such a disparity in number of recruits.
Using that as the basis, Florida would be behind quite a few teams. Again though, it’s important to note that while Georgia may have an average player ranking of 94.56 (to the Gators ranking of 90.62), the Bulldogs only have three commits overall.
The point isn’t to disparage Florida’s class or pump it up. It’s to point out that it is way too early to make judgments on the class one way or another. If the Gators had Ohio State’s class (10 commits, 2 5-stars, 7 4-stars), we’d already be able to pass judgment.
But right now, this class looks really similar to the 2020 class with 8 4-star and 6 3-star commits. The visitor list of recruits that Florida is getting to campus is really impressive. But two or three of those elite, 5-star recruits are going to need to choose Gainesville for me to say Mullen is truly recruiting with the big boys.
Areas of Need for 2021
The one place that I’d like to see some success for Florida on the recruiting trail this season is at running back.
After missing out on Trey Sanders in 2019 and Demarkcus Bowman in 2020, the Gators hope to get something immediate out of transfer Lorenzo Lingard. Florida has only signed one blue-chip running back in the last two cycles (Nay’Quan Wright) and so this should be an area of emphasis.
The other places where Florida has also only signed one blue-chip recruit in the last two cycles is tight end and safety. Tight end appears to be taken care of with Wilcox. And Kamar Wilcoxson at safety is a start.
But one of the reasons Florida has struggled to get off the field the last two seasons against elite competition is a lack of talent and depth at the safety position. Mullen and Co. thought they had a difference maker lined up in Avantae Williams, but he decided to commit to Miami in February.
So while the offensive line struggled last year, Mullen has brought in enough players at that position that improvement should be able to come from within. QB is pretty stocked now with Carlos Del Rio in 2021 following up Anthony Richardson and Emory Jones.
But the difference between 11-2 and 13-0 can be just a couple of plays here and there. And I’d focus on who they bring in at running back and safety in 2021 as the sign of whether they’re going to be able to cover those holes long-term moving forward.
Kyle Trask says the “P word”
Kyle Trask didn’t shy away from expectations on Monday when he uttered the “P word”: Playoff. And after making New Year’s Six bowls the past two seasons, that should be the expectation.
With Georgia breaking in a transfer QB in Jamie Newman and replacing nearly its entire offense, LSU having to replace 16 players who likely will be drafted including Joe Burrow, and Tua Tagovailoa likely ending up in purgatory with the Miami Dolphins, there is an opportunity for other teams to step up.
Combine that with Florida’s really easy schedule (the only two games the Gators won’t be heavy favorites in is at home against LSU and vs. Georgia) and expectations should be high.
But Florida isn’t without holes. They have to replace significant senior leadership. Those are players who went through the adversity of 2017 and came out stronger on the other side.
One of the things that was most impressive about the Gators teams in 2018 and 2019 was their resilience. A weaker team would have folded against South Carolina in 2018. A weaker team would have fallen apart after the narrow loss to LSU or the disappointing performance against Georgia in 2019.
But this team kept picking itself up, and a lot of that is due to the leadership of players like Lamical Perine, Freddie Swain, Josh Hammond, Tyrie Cleveland and David Reese.
Trask’s play needs to improve in 2020. But he’s going to need to pick up the leadership mantle from those guys as well.
Unheralded upperclassmen who may contribute
Dan Mullen isn’t well known for playing freshmen.
We’ve seen this with the way he’s handled Emory Jones, but also with the way he’s handled players like Jacob Copeland, Keon Zipperer and Richard Gouraige.
So I’d be surprised – especially with the expectations that are being discussed – if Mullen throws true freshmen Xzavier Henderson or Joshua Braun on the field early. That means there are going to be opportunities for guys who have been in the program for a while but haven’t played a ton to show what they can do.
Chief on that list is wide receiver Rick Wells. Wells – the 467th ranked player nationally in the 2016 class – has weathered a suspension from the credit card scandal of 2017 but has only caught three passes in his career thus far. His real contribution has been on special teams.
But that’s a place where he can make a major contribution in 2020 even if he doesn’t crack the starting lineup. The senior wide receivers who have left all played major roles in kick and punt coverage, as well as Freddie Swain returning punts. I suspect Wells might get more play at receiver than people expect, but even if he doesn’t, his impact could be felt on special teams.
The other guy I’d be looking for is on the other side of the ball: defensive back Trey Dean.
Dean was recruited as a safety but was forced into duty at corner in 2018 due to injuries. He then was shifted inside to the star position for 2019 and really struggled, eventually succumbing to Todd Grantham moving Marco Wilson inside with Kaiir Elam taking over at boundary corner.
But Dean wasn’t a highly ranked safety coming out of high school for no reason.
Often safeties are put there because they don’t have the raw speed to play corner. Once you get beat a couple of times, you start second guessing yourself and then play even slower. It looked like that’s what happened to Dean.
Mullen was asked this week about Dean moving to safety and was fairly coy, only indicating that the staff’s goal is to put players in positions to succeed. But with Marco Wilson coming back, Kaiir Elam’s emergence and seven blue-chip corners recruited the past two cycles (compared to one safety), it really makes sense to make this move.
Key players who can’t get injured
If the Gators are going to make it to the playoff, they are going to have to be lucky as well as good.
This still isn’t a terribly deep team. It’s not that the players who likely will be second on the depth chart aren’t good. It’s that – for the most part – they haven’t proven much on the field at the collegiate level.
Even at QB where I think Emory Jones is probably the best backup in the country, there is doubt whether he can run the offense, especially if it’s been tailored to Trask’s strengths.
At running back, there are major questions about Malik Davis, Nay’Quan Wright and Iverson Clement should Dameon Pierce get injured or Lorenzo Lingard not become eligible.
At wide receiver, the starting three of Jacob Copeland, Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes is pretty solid, especially when you consider 4-wide sets with Kyle Pitts, but one injury and you’re giving major minutes to untested players, whether that be Rick Wells, a redshirt freshman or a true freshman.
But the area where Florida just cannot adsorb an injury is on the defensive line, particularly at defensive end.
We saw last year what happened when Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard were not in the game. Zachary Carter started to emerge towards the end of the season, but everyone else who played major minutes coming back is on the interior of the line. I’m not even sure who’s behind Carter should he go down.
Florida has brought in some defensive ends recently, but at signing Khris Bogle was 212 pounds, Mohamoud Diabate was 215 and Lloyd Summerall was 220. Carter was 250. The 2018 class had Andrew Chatfield (221) and Malik Langham (269, since transferred).
Five-star transfer Brenton Cox was 245 at signing and I’m excited to see what he can bring. But I’m excited to see what he can bring when both he and Carter are on the field. If Carter continues to play like he did to end 2019, offenses aren’t going to exclusively double-team Cox.
That’s why Carter may end up being the most important Gator for 2020.