By Will Miles
Happy New Year
Hopefully 2021 brought great things to you and your family. Obviously, it’s been a challenge from a pandemic perspective, but also for the Gators as well.
But that’s one of the great things about college football. After the 4-7 disaster that was the 2017 season, not a lot of fans saw the Gators going 10-3 and blasting Michigan in 2018, but Dan Mullen was able to accomplish that. Conversely, not a lot of people saw Mullen going from winning 76 percent of his games to losing 6 of 11 this season.
The reality is that with college-aged players and the turnover that is continuous in college football, there’s always hope that the next season is going to be better than the last. The only place that maybe isn’t true is Alabama, where it’s hard to build on what the Tide have been doing.
But for every blue-blood program other than Alabama and Georgia, 2021 was a disappointment as far as accomplishing the goals that you set out on the white board to start the year. Hopefully we can say the same thing about the Bulldogs after the game next Monday.
But after that game, the whiteboard gets wiped clean. So just like Michigan last year had a horrible year and made the playoff, there’s hope for the Gators as well.
Where did 2021 go wrong?
Whenever you’re trying to decipher what went into a poor season and potentially fix it, I think it’s wise to look at where things went wrong and properly diagnose the problem.
There has been a lot of criticism of Emory Jones, and rightfully so given some of his struggles. There was also a lot of criticism of Dan Mullen and his rotation of the running backs given their effectiveness, and rightfully so.
But I still go back to the first bad decision made by Mullen: retaining Todd Grantham.
We all knew that removing Kyle Trask (and Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts) would mean the offense would take a step back, likely to around 2018 levels. It was a bit more dramatic than that, as Florida only scored 30.7 points per game versus 35 points per game in 2018.
But that 4.3 points made a major difference once you factored in that while the 2018 defense only allowed 20 points per game, it actually allowed 25.6 points per game in SEC play only. That means that this year’s defense (26.5 ppg) was only slightly worse against similar competition.
2020’s defensive performance is seen as historically bad (and it was horrible to watch), but those Gators only gave up 28.6 points per game in SEC play, and that was over an 11-game schedule. The only year where the defense was really any good in SEC play was 2019 (17 ppg).
That 2019 team only scored 33 points per game, so it’s not like that was significantly off from Florida’s 2021 offense, yet the Gators won 11 games.
So I get that the football was difficult to watch. I get that the offense was inconsistent. But if you’re looking for the place where Florida has the most to gain going into 2022, look no further than the defensive side of the ball.
Better days ahead
That might seem like a depressing thing to say, given that Florida hasn’t recruited all that well compared to its peers and has been bad on the defensive side of the ball for three of the last four seasons.
But there are two things working in Florida’s favor when it comes to a quick turnaround on that side of the ball: turnovers and youth.
The Gators averaged one turnover per game in 2021. That decreased every year under Grantham, from 1.9 in 2018 to 1.8 in 2019 to 1.3 in 2020 and then to 1.0 in 2021. This season, the best team in terms of takeaways against FBS opponents was Washington State at 2.3. An average team is around 1.4 or 1.5 turnovers per game.
Just with some luck on fumbles and a few fluttering passes that find their way into defenders arms, Florida should be better than they were in 2021. And turnovers help cover up some holes.
But there should be less holes in 2022 as well. Lost in the criticisms of the defense was the significant turnover that occurred from the 2020 to the 2021 squad.
Donovan Stiner, Brad Stewart, Marco Wilson and Shawn Davis were four fifths of the DB rotation. While Kaiir Elam stayed consistent from 2020 to 2021, the other defensive backs completely changed, with Tre’Vez Johnson, Rashad Torrence, Avery Helm and Jason Marshall all getting a ton of playing time.
Those four players all came from either the 2020 or 2021 recruiting class, meaning they were incredibly young this year. Yet the passing defense for the Gators improved a ton in 2021, with the Gators ranking 18th in yards per attempt allowed (6.5) vs. 85th the year before (7.8). The rushing defense was bad both years (78th in yards per rush allowed in 2020 vs. 85th in 2021).
The team definitely needs to improve on the ground. But if they can accomplish that while maintaining the gains they made through the air in 2021, the 2022 defense has a chance to be salty.
Bowl Opt-Outs
Florida really didn’t have a lot of players opt-out from the bowls this year, but the Gators experience this last year for the Cotton Bowl, so I thought it worthwhile to weigh in.
I don’t begrudge players making choices that are in their best interests. But I also don’t begrudge fans for wondering why the players don’t feel more of a commitment to finish the job they started in August. As I wrote over at Read & Reaction this week, what that means is that the tension being felt between people who believe every player should opt out if they have a chance and the Kirk Herbstreit’s of the world who think some players don’t love the game isn’t based on what players are allowed to do.
Rather, it’s based on the tension between what a player has a right to do and what a player has a duty to do.
Those who feel like players need to play in bowls believe that was a duty they agreed to when they signed up to play that year. Those who feel like players should opt out suggest that only a sucker would fulfill a duty when nobody around them does.
There isn’t a right answer, which is why there is so much Twitter argument about this subject. I can’t look a player in the eye and tell them not to opt out, particularly at a place like Oklahoma or Notre Dame where their coaches opted out.
Yet, I know that were I a player without an NFL future, I would appreciate a player who opted in and gave me an opportunity to win one last game in college.
I think the solution is that the NCAA, conferences and programs also have rights and duties. Those rights including (at least for now) not having to compensate players with more than a scholarship and the other benefits that come with being a football player.
The discussion then needs to be more around do their duties extend beyond that?
Summerall, Zanders back in?
Both Lloyd Summerall and Dante Zanders announced that they had removed their name from the transfer portal. This is important as Zanders at defensive end and Summerall at BUCK are two positions where Florida was going to be very thin.
The BUCK in particular is really lacking bodies, as there is just Brenton Cox and Antwaun Powell in addition to Summerall. There’s a little more depth at end, where Princely Umanmielen, Justus Boone and Tyreak Sapp are all in the fold.
The guys who filled these rolls besides Cox are mostly gone, as Zachary Carter, Jeremiah Moon, and Khris Bogle took up the lion’s share of the snaps on the outside. I’m not sure whether Summerall or Zanders are going to contribute mightily to the Gators in 2022, but having them there in case of injury is still really important.
Emory Jones never left?
In a bit of surprising news, it appears that Emory Jones – despite announcement before the Gasparilla Bowl – has yet to put his name into the transfer portal.
I think we all just assumed with that announcement and the addition of Jack Miller through the transfer portal that Jones already had plans to move on. That may still be the case, but it is interesting to think about what Florida might be able to do with a player of Jones’ caliber were he used in different ways and why that might benefit Jones himself.
The reality is that Jones showed enough in 2021 that the limitations that he has as a QB are going to prevent him from playing at the next level. Sure, he could transfer to some lower-tier school and play better, but if Dan Mullen can’t get the best out of you, I’m not sure that’s happening somewhere else.
So if you wanted to switch position and you wanted to show scouts what you could do, is there a better place to do it than the SEC? And is there a better program to do it at than Florida, where you’re losing most of your playmakers in Malik Davis, Dameon Pierce and Jacob Copeland?
I have no inside information on this. Perhaps Jones just is giving Napier time to sell his vision and will eventually choose to move on. But there’s no doubt he’s a gifted runner in space. And there’s also no doubt that his running ability is more interesting to pro scouts than his passing ability after the 2021 season.
Transfer of Kamryn Waites
Louisiana offensive lineman Kamryn Waites decided to transfer to the Gators.
This was announced with a relatively large amount of fanfare for a zero star recruit. It turns out that Waites hadn’t played football since 8th grade prior to coming to Louisiana.
Obviously, Billy Napier has seen this kid in practice for a year. He clearly saw something in his size and athletic ability from his high school basketball tape. But using a scholarship on an offensive lineman who’s failed to show anything yet in college and hasn’t played football in years is an interesting flex.
Scholarships are valuable commodities. Maybe Napier thinks he has plenty to go around, and he might be right given the numbers he’s probably going to sign for the 2022 recruiting class. But this is a weird one for me.
Maybe I’m wrong and Waites turns into a fantastic player quickly. Obviously, I haven’t seen tape of the guy and can’t judge him based on his on-field prowess. But that’s an interesting profile for a player to grant them a scholarship to the University of Florida.
Louisiana Exodus?
Of course, we have no idea who might be coming with Waites. O’Cyrus Torrence has also entered the portal, and would be a huge get for Napier. That’s not just because he knows Napier’s schemes, but Torrence was also an All American last year according to Pro Football Focus.
Cornerback Mekhi Garner and running back Montrell Johnson have also entered the transfer portal. These are a little bit harder to explain should Napier snap them up as running back, and especially corner, are not real areas of need for the Gators at this point.
Torrence makes a ton of sense. The Gators need help on the offensive line, not just from starters but also from solid depth. Torrence not only would be a starter right away, but likely would push some of the starters either back in the depth chart or to other positions on the line. With Jean Delance and Stewart Reese departing, there’s definitely a need.
But when you look at the CB and RB positions, the Gators seem pretty set. Ethan Pouncey, Avery Helm, Jason Marshall and Jordan Young are all recent recruits. Jadarrius Perkins should be back for another year after coming in last year and Jaydon Hill should be back after his knee injury.
At running back, Lorenzo Lingard and Demarkcus Bowman couldn’t get on the field last year (much to just about every fan’s chagrin). Nay’Quan Wright will be back, and combined with Lingard and Bowman give the Gators some depth there. Additionally, Billy Napier is in hot pursuit of Trevor Etienne, a running back prospect from Jennings, LA.
So if Napier does bring in Torrence, that makes sense. But if he brings in Garner and Johnson as well, I think that says something about what he thinks about those players in front of them, and also that more attrition might be on the way.
Anger at Napier?
With all of the Louisiana players entering the portal – and with the first one transferring to Florida – Louisiana fans have started to express some disappointment in Billy Napier.
I get it. They pegged Napier as someone who was different and was going to leave them in better shape than he left them. Even with transfers leaving the program, I still think that is true.
But this is the game of big-time college football. Notre Dame and Oklahoma don’t believe that Brian Kelly or Lincoln Riley owe them anything at this point. Of course, those guys were highly criticized when they left.
But the reality is that at this point, coaches are mercenaries. We can laud Napier for treating people well and making sure that his subordinates get deserved praise and attention, but at the end of the day, he’s going to be judged on wins and losses. And in the world of college football, that means having to sometimes get your hands dirty.
Ironically, that’s the thing that centered around most of the criticism of Dan Mullen. It wasn’t that he was a bad coach, the narrative went. Instead, it was that he chose not to make the tough choices when it became clear that change needed to be made.
So maybe Ragin’ Cajun fans are mad at Napier. The fact that he doesn’t care, or is at least willing to make enemies, is the exact thing some fans were asking of Mullen.
We’ll see if that pays off.
Lonely at the top
Every year, there are somewhere between 30-40 5-star recruits in a given class. Historically, those players have been distributed unevenly across different programs.
For example, if we look at the 2012 class (just 10 years ago), Florida State had six 5-star commits along with three for Alabama, two for Texas and three for Florida. That means that the top four classes accounted for 14 of 37 5-star recruits (38%).
But if it feels like there is more separation at the top of the rankings this year, that’s because it is true. Of the 35 5-star recruits in this cycle, 16 are committed to the top four classes (46%). But it isn’t just this year, as the percentage is even higher for the 2021 (57%) and 2020 (50%) classes.
So what this indicates to me is that this has been going on for a while. The reason I point this out is I suspect that some people are going to point to NIL as the reason for things getting more separated at the top. But NIL isn’t the cause of this. In fact, judging by Florida State getting left at the altar by the number one overall player – Travis Hunter – for a HBCU, NIL may be starting to even things out.
Of course, that will just be temporary. The reality is that the dual-threat QB system that gave Rich Rodriguez an advantage at West Virginia eventually found its way to the big boys. The same thing has happened with RPOs. NIL will be the same way.
The little guys will innovate, but college football will continue to be lopsided towards the blue-bloods.