By Will Miles
RIP Kobe Bryant
I have to admit that I actively rooted against Kobe Bryant.
I’m constitutionally against anything having to do with the Lakers. I didn’t particularly like the way that he took someone like Shaq for granted, even allowing that Shaq had his own flaws. His trade request to Chicago prior to the Lakers trading for Pau Gasol was the decision before LeBron’s Decision and rubbed me the wrong way. And of course, you had the events of Eagle, Colorado.
But even someone like me has to marvel at all Kobe Bryant accomplished in his career. He’ll be inducted into the Naismith Hall of Fame, likely in the next class. He got to travel all over the world and won NBA Championships and Olympic gold medals. He had tons of adoring fans, and even those who rooted against him had to admit that part of the reason they did was the burning intensity and singular focus that he had to be great.
But none of those things were what I thought of when news of his death in a helicopter crash came to my attention on Sunday. Instead, I thought about a 41-year old who woke up thinking he had plenty of time left to accomplish his dreams. And I thought about his daughter, who never got the chance to live hers. I started reading about his Catholic faith and hoped that he had taken the time to share that with his daughter.
But more than anything, I just hoped he said “I love you” to his family before he left to get on the helicopter.
Hernandez documentary
The death of Bryant came right after I finished the Netflix documentary examining the downfall of former Gator Aaron Hernandez, titled “Killer Inside: The Mind of Aaron Hernandez.”
The documentary tried to look at what potentially could have caused Hernandez to become a murderer. Was it his abusive father? Was it chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) caused by repeated hits to the head? Was it a lack of control due to substance abuse? Did it have to do with his sexuality, and potentially hiding it?
The thing that struck me is that I didn’t really care about the why. The evidence that Hernandez was there when Odin Lloyd was murdered was overwhelming. Hernandez admitted he was there, though he claimed he didn’t pull the trigger. His defense for the murders of Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado was essentially that, “the other guy in the car did it.” And the other guy had a bullet wound in his head allegedly given to him by Hernandez.
Instead, I cared about just one thing. Ursula Ward – Odin Lloyd’s mother – spoke of forgiveness towards Hernandez. The idea that she would forgive him for killing her son was the most moving and also excruciating part of the documentary.
But I wish they had spent more time there. Because that why would have been more compelling – at least to me – than anything having to do with CTE.
Justin Shorter to Florida
The announcement came on Sunday that wide receiver Justin Shorter will be transferring from Penn State to Florida.
Shorter is a 5-star recruit, which means he is good. But not all 5-stars are created equal. Typically, 5-star recruits are the top 30-35 players in any recruiting class. A while back, I looked at how often players with different rankings end up getting drafted into the NFL, using the 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes. What I found was that players ranked 1-15 got drafted 78 percent of the time while players ranked 16-30 got drafted 56 percent of the time.
Gervon Dexter – who was just upgraded to a 5-star – is ranked 17th overall. Brenton Cox – the 5-star transfer from Georgia – was ranked 23rd overall in the 2018 class. Lorenzo Lingard – the 5-star transfer from Miami – was ranked 25th overall in the 2018 class as well.
Shorter was ranked 8th overall in the 2018 class.
All of these guys are really, really skilled football players. But it is Shorter who should be a virtual lock to make the NFL. Let’s hope he can get a waiver and prove it during the 2020 season.
Feleipe Franks to Arkansas
Feleipe Franks announced recently that he’s transferring to Arkansas to continue his career in the SEC and I’m really happy for the guy.
He’s going to get to play in Kendall Briles’ system, which I think is a perfect fit. Briles’ offense works off of a vertical route downfield with other receivers running adjustments off of what the defense does. That means that a QB with a big arm can really utilize that one skill within the offense and Feleipe Franks absolutely has that skill.
But more than anything, I’m happy he’s going to get to prove that he is a good QB in the SEC rather than going to a place like Kansas and having to endure criticisms of lower competition even were he to light up Big 12 defenses. The truth is that if he plays well at Arkansas, it’s going to say something significant about his development as a QB.
Maybe he isn’t able to prove it and ends up in the minor leagues pitching for a Red Sox affiliate. But he’s going to get every chance to prove that he’s an NFL-caliber QB because of the choice he made.
And I think that’s pretty neat.
Florida outperforms recruiting on the field
Florida finished the 2019 season ranked 6th in the AP Poll and 7th in the Coaches Poll. That’s on the heels of finishing 7th in the AP Poll and 6th in the Coaches Poll last season. So it would be easy to say that Mullen’s team didn’t really move the needle in 2019 even with the improvement from 10 to 11 wins.
But I think that misses a really important point. The 2018 team had the 12th most talent in the country, according to 247Sports roster rankings. But the 2019 team has the 15th most talent in the country using the same rankings.
So Florida had a better record with a less talented team. Mullen has outperformed his recruiting rankings now for two seasons in a row. And Florida is about to get an influx of 5-star talent through the transfer portal that should up the high-end talent in Gainesville significantly either this year or next.
This doesn’t mean talent isn’t important. After all, Ohio State (2), LSU (5), Clemson (9) and Oklahoma (8) all were ranked higher than Florida in the talent rankings in 2019.
What it means is when Mullen is able to get Florida’s talent level to be on-par with some of these teams – potentially as early as 2020 – Florida is going to be a real threat in the SEC, not just the SEC East.
Kadarius Toney Returns
Kadarius Toney is returning to Florida for his senior season.
It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Toney. He’s a dynamic playmaker who makes the defense account for him when he’s on the field.
But that’s been a big problem in his time at Florida. He just hasn’t been able to stay on the field.
In 2019 that was because of a shoulder injury that kept him out for a while, but even when he’s been healthy, his usage has been hit-or-miss.
We saw that this year where he caught four passes for 65 yards against FSU, including one play where he made almost the entire Seminoles defense miss. Yet in the game against Virginia, he had one catch for -1 yard. In fact, he only had six catches outside of that FSU game.
And it wasn’t just 2019. Toney has played in 19 games the past two seasons and has only caught more than two passes in four of those games. Basically, he’s been more of a decoy than a playmaker.
Florida isn’t going to need a decoy in 2020. They’re going to need a playmaker.
Brock Vandagrif to Georgia
2021 five-star QB Brock Vandagrif recently committed to Georgia and this is bad news for Florida.
I don’t say this just because of his rating. I say this because I think often the recruiting rankings overvalue arm strength and size over accuracy. Vandagrif certainly checks the ideal size box, coming in at 6’2” and 200 lbs. 247Sports has him rated as a 9/10 for size and 8/10 for arm strength.
But he’s also accurate. Last year (his Junior year of high school), Vandagrif completed 71.6 percent of his passes. He has completed 67.1 percent of his passes overall in high school. He also has run for more than 1200 yards the past two seasons.
So Georgia is about to get a QB with prototypical size, a big arm, and an accuracy profile that suggests he knows how to read defenses.
With Georgia losing Jake Fromm, LSU losing Joe Burrow and Alabama losing Tua Tagovailoa, the big boys of the SEC are going to take a step back in 2020. But Florida had better take advantage.
Because unless Kirby Smart finds a way to mess up another 5-star QB, Georgia is going to have an elite QB come 2021.
Value of special teams (the punters Townsend)
Perhaps I don’t need to tell Florida fans that special teams are valuable. After all, this is a fanbase that turned kicker Eddie Pineiro into a bit of a cult hero.
But I do think it’s worth mentioning that among all of the losses that Florida will absorb from the 2019 team, the one who may end up being the most valuable is punter Tommy Townsend.
It’s hard to determine the value of a punter just by looking at his yards per kick or number of times pinning the opponent inside the 20. That’s because there is tremendous value in forcing the opposition to make a fair catch or keeping the ball out of the hands of a dangerous returner.
But I do think there is one place where you can determine the value of a punter. In 2018, Florida’s defense ranked 37th in yards per play allowed but 24th in points per game allowed. In 2019, the Gator defense ranked 21st in yards per play allowed but 12th in points per game allowed.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the defense outperformed its yards allowed two years in a row on the scoreboard. Instead, I think it has a lot to do with Tommy Townsend putting the defense in a position where it could succeed.
Florida basketball loses to Baylor
Absent a complete turnaround, this Florida Gators basketball team isn’t going to make it to the Final Four.
Perhaps there was some hope after Florida put together a complete game to dominate 17th ranked Auburn 69-47. But that hope was pretty much extinguished after an 84-82 loss to LSU and a 72-61 loss to Baylor.
LSU and Baylor are good basketball teams. But Florida is so inconsistent that to believe they’ll win four straight in March at this point is a pretty unlikely bet.
The Gators will still make the tournament. They’re going to win a bunch of games coming up as the schedule is going to lighten up some.
But if your definition of a successful season – and your requirement of Mike White’s continued employment – is a Final Four berth, then this won’t be a successful season.
Now I don’t think that’s Scott Stricklin’s requirement. I suspect that he’s going to measure whether the players like playing for White and whether he sees tangible progress. And I also suspect that he’d only make a change if there was a clear upgrade available.
I’m not sure that upgrade is going to be out there. And I’m not sure that a “Final Four or bust” expectation is a fair expectation for any Florida coach not named Donovan.
But that’s what happens when you follow a legend. Those are the expectations. And there is a segment of the fan base that isn’t going to let Mike White forget it.
But the “Fire Mike White” hive is really loud. And if that starts to affect recruiting, White’s time will be up.
Baseball season is nearly upon us
I’m really excited for Gators baseball to start on Valentine’s Day against Marshall.
Last year’s team finished 5th in the SEC East and a 34-26 record, eventually exiting in the Lubbock regional to Dallas Baptist.
But that was a significant down year for the Gators, who were coming off of a National Title in 2017 and a trip to the College World Series in 2018.
This year, the team goes into the season ranked 4th in the country. After posting a team ERA over 5.00 last season, Florida returns two starters showing up on all MLB Draft boards (Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich) and is adding starter Hunter Barco, a 6’4” lefty who was drafted by the Mets but chose to come to Florida.
But beyond the returning starters and the newcomers, my excitement comes from Florida being back to being the hunter.
While Florida’s success under Kevin O’Sullivan has made the College World Series feel like a guarantee, it hasn’t always been that way at Florida. Just like I’m really appreciative of what Billy Donovan did for Gators basketball, I have the same appreciate for O’Sullivan. Building a program at a school where football takes such precedence isn’t easy.
And after the 2019 season, O’Sullivan and his team have something to prove. Often, those years are the ones that end up the most satisfying for me.