By Will Miles
Perkins decommits
Prior to 2022, Florida had only signed 11 5-star recruits since the 2011 cycle (one per year). The Gators have only signed four since 2015. The last time the Gators had two in a cycle was 2015, and then 2012 and 2013 before that.
Billy Napier has a chance to add two in his transition class if he can wrestle 5-star linebacker Harold Perkins away from Texas and LSU. That’s because Perkins (the fourth overall recruit) just decommitted form Texas A&M. Combined with the openings at linebacker in Gainesville (more on that later), it seems like a natural fit for Perkins to slide right in to immediate playing time.
Perkins would be the highest ranked linebacker that Florida has ever brought in (Jelani Jenkins was ranked 7th overall in 2009). He’d also be the highest ranked player to commit to the Gators since Martez Ivey in 2015.
But more than that, I mentioned the 11 5-star recruits. Every single one of them was a significant contributor to the Gators program: Jason Marshall (2021), Gervon Dexter (2020), Ivey (2015), CeCe Jefferson (2015), Teez Tabor (2014), Vernon Hargreaves (2013), Kelvin Taylor (2013), D.J. Humphries (2012), Jon Bullard (2012), Dante Fowler (2012), and Jeff Driskel (2011).
I think you can argue that Taylor was good, but not a star. You can argue that Jefferson underperformed. Maybe you could argue that about Ivey too (though I disagree given he made an All-SEC team). But every single guy on that list was a starter for the Gators.
Barring injury, that’s the floor for a guy like Perkins: three years as a starter.
Max Brown commits
I wrote a more detailed analysis of Gators QB commit Max Brown earlier this week, but I’ll give you the cliff notes version here.
Brown is an interesting prospect. His stats are awesome (71% completions, > 12 yards per attempt). His arm strength looks good on film. His size (6’3”, 200 lbs) seems ideal for a QB prospect. So why is he a lower 3-star recruit?
It has to do with the level of competition that he has faced in Oklahoma’s 3A division. There are a lot of bigger schools in Oklahoma. Oklahoma also isn’t known for high school recruiting the way that Texas or Florida are. The result is that stats at that level need to be backed up by the film.
And this is where I get a little bit worried about Brown. In watching his highlight tapes, what I saw was a QB with enough athleticism and raw ability to overcome deficiencies in timing and reading defenses. Those are things that severely limit your ceiling in the SEC.
That doesn’t mean Brown can’t be great. It does mean that we should see him as a developmental prospect who’s going to take time to bring along. That should be expected, given that Anthony Richardson and Jack Miller are going to battle to be the starter with Brown currently just a depth piece.
But it does suggest that Napier is looking for high upside guys in this transition class, particularly at QB.
Andrew Savaiinaea commits
Following the commitment of Brown, the next two commits are going to get some extra scrutiny. After all, I just listed all of the 5-star recruits who’ve panned out in Florida history and Napier is now bringing in a bunch of 3-star guys.
But I think we need to look at the roster more holistically for a proper analysis, particularly when it comes to 3-star recruit Andrew Savaiinaea. Savaiinaea is a rush defensive end. Florida only has seven defensive ends on the roster, and given the way Todd Grantham split that spot into “true” defensive ends and BUCKs, that number is probably even less.
Additionally, Florida didn’t have any one at that spot committed for the 2022 cycle. You can see that Napier is using this class to balance his roster. He’s gone out and filled multiple spots where Florida was lacking a commitment. He did that with Brown at QB. He did that with Etienne at RB. He did that at tackle with David Conner. And now he’s doing that at defensive end with Savaiinaea.
I wrote a while back about something I called the 5-3 Theory. The idea is that since you have limited resources, you’re better off going after top-tier recruits and then filling in a class with 3-stars than you are focusing on bringing in all blue chip recruits. I wrote that in response to what might help Dan Mullen’s sub-elite recruiting, but I actually think it holds up pretty well when talking about transition class recruiting too.
Hayden Hansen commits
The commitment of Hayden Hansen though is a bit more of a head scratcher.
He’s not filling a spot (tight end) that Florida hasn’t already filled in the 2022 cycle (Tony Livingston). He doesn’t have a ton of Power-5 offers (Colorado and Washington State). He knows Napier from Louisiana – he was offered by UL – so clearly there’s a relationship there, but the expectation was that this spot would go to someone like high 3-star Arlis Boardingham.
Still, the one thing that jumps out on Hansen’s 247Sports page is this: “Also plays basketball.”
That is a common theme for Napier recruits apparently. It is listed in the profile of 3-star OT commit David Conner. It is a major part of the profile of Livingston. And if you haven’t seen video of transfer OT Kamryn Waites, you’re missing out.
I wonder whether Napier thinks he has found an inefficiency here. It makes some sense when you think about it. You find guys who didn’t specialize in football but are athletically gifted and have the size you’re looking for. Other programs are looking for more polished players, which gives you an opportunity to swoop in.
It’s the perfect strategy for Louisiana. It’s probably a good strategy for a transition class. It won’t be an acceptable strategy once Napier gets things going, but if it means some high upside for a few 3-star commits, then I’m willing to see how these guys develop.
Up to 26th overall
After a lot of sound and fury, Florida is now up to 26th overall in the 247Sports rankings. That’s even higher when you factor in transfers, but I tend to think those should be added to previous classes and not this one when you evaluate, considering the eligibility of those players is tied to their recruiting cycle, not this one.
Still, with 15 commits, the Gators now have an average player ranking of 88.43. It’s a testament to the rest of the conference that even though Florida is ranked 26th overall, they are 13th in the conference.
That’s going to change soon though, as the Gators are currently right behind Mississippi State, South Carolina and Ole Miss in the rankings and have less total commits than each of them.
The other thing is that circumstances matter. Yes, Florida State has a higher ranking (14th) and a better average player rating (89.86) than Florida currently does. But this is Mike Norvell’s second class. The fact that he currently only has two top-100 players is abysmal considering what recruiting has been like at FSU in the past.
All of this to say that while it’s okay to get disappointed at Napier if he can’t close the deal on a few recruits coming down the stretch, Florida is pretty much where we should expect them to be. The good news is the high-end prospects (Kamari Wilson, Shemar James) have the potential to do exactly what Napier needs them to do.
That’s more than I can say for Norvell right now.
Where does it end up?
So I just told you not to worry about the overall ranking, but you and I both know that we want to see Florida higher than 26th.
If I had to guess, I’d say that the class is going to come in around 18th or 19th. The reason I say that is historically, 240 points has been right around there, and that’s where Napier would end up with two more high 3-star signings as well as 4-star Jacoby Mathews.
If Napier can land both Mathews and Perkins, the score creeps up closer to 250, which historically would put the Gators right around 15th or 16th. This is a bit of a weird year though. Kentucky is currently ranked 11th with a point total of 235 and 19 commits. I fully expect the Gators to end up in front of the Wildcats.
But this is where the pure volume of signees comes into play. Clemson’s 2018 class had five 5-star recruits, but only ranked 7th overall. That wasn’t because of top-end talent, but because the Tigers only signed 17 players compared to 26 for Georgia, Ohio State and Texas.
So what I think we should pay attention to is average player rating, top-30 players and top-100 players. Average player rating tells you how the talent Florida procured matches others on a per-player basis. Top-30 players tells you how many have a chance to be true stars. Top-100 players tells you how many have a chance to be NFL caliber.
The numbers suggest beyond that, it’s all about development.
Hopper in the portal
Linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper entered the transfer portal for a second time this week.
Dismissing the weirdness of the situation, where he went in and out of the portal on the same day, only to go in again, is the reality of any coaching transition. There are always going to be players who don’t mesh with a new staff.
It used to be that the player was then stuck playing for a staff that he wasn’t comfortable with. But with the transfer portal and the one-time transfer rule, that’s no longer the case. It isn’t good or bad really, but it is just the way college football is set up these days.
That means that Hopper has the freedom to select who he wants to play for, just like Billy Napier got to select the program he wanted to run. It certainly causes some roster challenges, but it also opens up some opportunities.
With Hopper likely gone, there is going to be playing time for Shemar James and Harold Perkins. Ventrell Miller will be an integral part of bringing them along. Guys like Diwun Black, Chief Borders and Scooby Williams – used sparingly by the previous staff – will get an opportunity to shine.
Hopper had the potential to be a great linebacker, but that’s all it has really been at this point: potential. He was on the field a lot of the time when Florida was getting gashed by LSU on counter after counter. He was on the field when the defense couldn’t stop Samford. Yes, he showed flashes.
But flashes aren’t going to be enough if Florida wants to be a consistent winner.
More coming
Hopper’s departure frees up a scholarship, but doesn’t change the fact that more Gators are going to be leaving relatively soon.
The arrival of Max Brown means Florida has six scholarship QBs. That doesn’t make any sense to carry that many guys at that position. If Napier is able to sign Mathews, that would give him 13 safeties. Again, that doesn’t make a ton of sense either.
Even if it did make sense, Napier can’t keep everyone. He’s limited to 85 scholarships, and after reading up more about the topic this week, it looks like Super Seniors like Miller and Trey Dean are going to count against the scholarship count in 2022.
That means the Gators are already at 87 scholarships and two players are going to have to leave. More likely, Napier is going to sign 2-3 more recruits to the 2022 class and so will need to offset those scholarships as well.
Whether those losses are after signing day or after the spring, they are coming. It’s good for the program, as it gets more of Napier’s guys into the fold early. But it is disappointing as some of these guys that we’ve spent three or four years with have to move on.
Good for college football?
Whether or not the transfer portal is good for college football or not is a different question than what is possible. Normally, I’m fully on-board with people having as many freedoms as possible.
However, I know from personal experience that having constraints on me that forced me to finish things I started have been beneficial to me long-term. Even when I wanted to quit, because life (and money) needs made me finish, I’m better off for it.
So I’m cognizant that freedom is what is desired for these players, but I’m not sure that it’s what’s best for them. Still, I’m not sure I should be the arbiter of what’s best for them anyway. I wouldn’t want them telling me what to do at my job.
I think the real issue here is a general lack of trust between the players and the schools. Because the schools have taken advantage of the players for so long, they are right to do what is right just for them. And because the players only have four or five years to accomplish what they need, they don’t have any long-term view of the problem.
This is where the NCAA – or the conferences – could come in. What if the governing bodies used positive incentives to better the game long-term? There were already rumors that NIL deals at Texas A&M were structured to prevent transfers. It seems like financial incentives for graduation or staying for a certain amount of time could do the trick.
The one-and-done rule started in college basketball in 2006 and I think you could argue fundamentally changed what that sport is for the worse. I hope the same doesn’t happen to college football.
Point differentials and Mike White
I actually think the Gators basketball team is about to make a run.
After losing three straight to Alabama (ranked 15th), Auburn (ranked 9th) and LSU (ranked 12th), the Gators rolled off three straight wins against South Carolina, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. After a bad loss on the road to Ole Miss, the Gators sit 12-7 and look to be a middling program.
I don’t think the basketball program is great, but the underlying point differential suggests this team is better than its record indicates. The Gators are currently outscoring its opponents by 8.2 points per game. That’s way better than last year’s 15-10 squad (3.9 ppg differential).
You see the same thing if you look at offensive rating (120th in 2021 vs. 144th in 2022 out of 358) compared to defensive rating (137th in 2021 vs. 50th in 2022). This team is slightly worse than last year’s team on offense. It is significantly better than last year’s team on defense.
So while I share in the frustration that a 12-7 record brings, I also fully expect this team to end up with a 7-3 or 8-2 run coming up in the near future. At that point, we’ll be back to a lower seed in the tournament and the same argument we have about Mike White ever year.