By Will Miles
Ho-hum 24 points wins
After last week’s 21-point win over Vanderbilt received yawns or even criticism from Gators fans, the same thing generally happened after Florida’s 24-point win over Kentucky.
It really is amazing that Florida is winning SEC games by three touchdowns and there are people who think the team is underperforming. But it actually is true.
That fact came up in Dan Mullen’s presser this week and he indicated that the offense didn’t accomplish any of its goals coming into the game. That’s hard to imagine for a team that put up 34 points, but that is the standard that the 2020 team has put forward.
Here’s the reality. Mullen sees that this team has an opportunity to win a championship, but that it’s going to have to do it with offense. The offense is going to have to be perfect against Kentucky because of the issues on the defensive side of the ball. That means that 34 points isn’t good enough against a team like Kentucky. Running the ball for 26 yards through three quarters isn’t going to cut it.
It is amazing that winning two SEC games by a combined 45 points brings criticism, but that’s what happens when you’re a championship contender. We haven’t been able to call Florida a true contender for a title in more than a decade.
We can say it now.
Ho-hum Kyle Trask
Kyle Trask ended the Kentucky game having gone 21-27 (78%) for 256 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. It might have been his worst performance of the season.
Such is the amazing 2020 season that Trask is having.
It’s hard to put up unbelievable stats when you only possess the ball for six minutes in a half. But Trask actually managed to throw for 144 yards in the first half despite the Florida offense sputtering.
He obviously hit Kyle Pitts perfectly in stride for the long 56-yard TD reception. But beyond that, Kentucky forced Trask to check-down more than he has this season thus far. That lack of aggressiveness showed and he was a little bit off.
When the Florida defense was struggling to get off the field in the second quarter and could have really used a first down or two to let them rest, Trask threw slightly high to Malik Davis on a slant. Davis should have caught the ball, but Trask doesn’t usually miss those. Instead of giving the defense a rest, Florida went three-and-out and put the defense back out on the field.
Again, this is nitpicking. Trask’s QB rating of 194.1 is elite. We would have killed for 3 TDs and 256 yards passing as recently as last year’s opener against Miami.
But Trask has set a new standard. We expect 70% completion percentage, over 300 yards and 4 or 5 TDs. That’s quite an expectation, but it’s an expectation that exists because Trask has earned it.
Mullen lights into Grantham
Dan Mullen was caught on camera lighting into Todd Grantham as Florida’s defense was struggling in the second quarter. Gators fans have been waiting for this to happen, and I’m sure was cathartic for some, as they don’t know what to change but want an acknowledgment from Mullen that changes need to be made.
The defense did a better job of getting off the field after that, but I’m not sure that was due to Mullen yelling at Grantham.
In the first quarter, the Gators defense gave up an average of 3.1 yards per play. That just isn’t sustainable over the long haul and so even though Kentucky was able to move the ball, you pretty much knew that Florida’s defense would eventually force them into some tough situations.
That happened in the third quarter when Kentucky only averaged 1.6 yards per play and Florida forced two 3-and-outs, forced a turnover on downs and got two interceptions. The results in that third quarter were better, but it was really just a continuation of what had already been shown in the first quarter.
That’s a good thing to keep in mind when watching any defense. Pay attention to the underlying numbers (I like yards per play) rather than the actual results early on. Sometime teams are able to string together 3-yard gains and get a few first downs. But yards per play tells you what’s really going on.
Against Texas A&M, Florida gave up 9.7 yards per play in the first quarter. That portended disaster as the game went on. Same against Ole Miss, as the Gators surrendered 6.6 yards per play. Anything over 6.0 is a big red flag. Around 5.0 and you probably should be worried. But if it’s 4.0 or less, have confidence that the results will eventually catch up to the underlying statistics, just like they did against Kentucky.
Diabate Improvement
Mohamoud Diabate is really blossoming. This is part of the reason why you don’t want to bench someone who is struggling early in the year.
There was a lot of talk about returning Diabate to more of a pass rushing position early in the season, particularly after the loss to Texas A&M. But the staff was insistent about both his ability to play linebacker and the need to have him there, and we’re now seeing the results.
Multiple times his closing speed was on display either to catch Terry Wilson or to put pressure on Wilson and cause an errant throw. Having him on one side of the line with Brenton Cox on the other is starting to become a nightmare for opposing offenses.
Multiple times I saw something new with Diabate as well. The Gators had him stunt behind Zach Carter and the Kentucky offensive linemen weren’t fast enough to block Diabate before he was able to get around the corner. One time, he and Carter met at the quarterback after completely discombobulating Kentucky up-front.
His speed creates mismatch problems for the opposing offense. It’s been a long time since we’ve been able to say that about a Florida linebacker.
Special special teams
The Florida offense was stumbling in the first half. The defense was struggling to get off the field. The entire game just felt sort-of stagnant.
But then Florida’s special teams got involved.
First, punter Jacob Finn pinned Kentucky at the one-yard line with a coffin-corner kick. Then, Florida was prepared for what Kentucky was going to do with Max Duffy punting and had two men back to catch Duffy’s punt.
It turned into a huge bonus when Duffy kicked the ball in the wrong direction, as it was about the easiest punt return for a touchdown that Kadarius Toney will ever have. It was a great fake by Xzavier Henderson to make sure he held the Kentucky defenders.
But I’m less impressed by the play itself than the fact that Florida was prepared to run the play. They clearly prepared based on what they saw on film and when an opportunity presented itself, were primed to take advantage.
That’s what you’re supposed to do as a coaching staff. But how easy would it have been to have one man back to catch the punt and then have it roll an extra 20 yards because he couldn’t get to the directional kick.
Instead, Florida was up 14-10 going into the half with what had to be a completely demoralizing score for the Wildcats to accept.
Two years later
In 2018, Terry Wilson came into the Swamp and torched the Gators. He only threw for 151 yards, but he did so on 11 of 16 and had a QB rating of 176.8. In addition to that, he ran for 105 yards on 10 carries and was the difference in that game.
Boy, what a difference two years makes.
In that 2018 tilt, Wilson was clearly a better player than Feleipe Franks. Kentucky won because they had a better running game with Benny Snell, but also because they had the better QB on that day.
But two years later, that advantage has tilted back to the Gators in a huge way.
Wilson had a QB rating of 80.6 and only threw for 62 yards on 18 attempts with 2 INTs. That’s a stat line that more closely resembles Kendall Hinton’s line for the Broncos this weekend against the Saints than it does what Wilson did just two years ago.
Now certainly Wilson has regressed since that day. It was probably his best performance as a Wildcat and he couldn’t replicate it even before his knee injury. After that injury, he’s been a different player and Kentucky just hasn’t been able to get anything going on offense.
But when you keep the opposing QB to an average of 3.4 yards per attempt, you’re doing something right. Kudos, Gators defense.
Alignment Issues
I actually think the Gators offense would be getting more love for this performance if they could just get lined up correctly.
Multiple times players were out of position at the snap. And while people will point to the DBs as the main culprits, there were multiple times that defensive linemen and linebackers didn’t know where they were supposed to be.
Particular examples were on a couple of third-and-ones where the linebackers were 5-yards back from the line of scrimmage but Kentucky had seven or eight blockers. Essentially, you’re just giving the opposing offense a first down at that point.
It’s maddening to see though because the defense actually is pretty good when they are aligned properly. There are a lot of areas where we’ve seen progress this year, but if Florida is going to compete with Alabama, this is going to have to get cleaned up.
But the defense is a work in progress. Remember last season when the offensive line was absolutely terrible against Miami early in the year? By the time we got to the Virginia game in the bowl, it was playing a lot better.
It wasn’t fantastic, but clearly progress had been made. The problem was that the baseline was so poor that improvement was difficult to see throughout the season.
I suspect the same thing is happening with the defense. They are making small strides every week and are getting better. Because there are still glaring issues, we look at it and say “here we go again” when perhaps what we should be saying is, “it only happened two times this week instead of four.”
That’s an unsatisfying answer for a team that has a championship-level offense. But just like the offensive line in 2019 had a poor baseline, so did this defense against Ole Miss. And just like the offensive line last year, this defense is improving.
Will it be enough? That’s only a question we’ll learn at the SEC Championship.
Sarah Fuller, Vanderbilt and Expectations
I was watching an old game from 1995 where Northwestern beat Notre Dame the other day. The Irish lost 17-15, in part because they had a kicker (Kevin Kopka) who missed an extra point wide right in the second quarter and had to go for two late.
The reason I bring this up is that during the telecast, the announcers stated that Kopka was recruited by Lou Holtz to Notre Dame despite being 1/9 on field goals as a senior in high school.
The first thing this made me do is really appreciate what Florida has with Evan McPherson at kicker. But the other thing it made me do is think back to when I was young and a 35 or 40-yard field goal was considered an accomplishment for a college kicker. Things have really improved.
And that’s what I was thinking when I saw Sarah Fuller kick-off for Vanderbilt to open the second half.
Fuller’s squib kick wasn’t perfect, and I don’t think the SEC was doing her any favors by naming her the SEC special teams co-player of the week. But we all start somewhere.
Anybody decrying her kick as “terrible” would say the exact same thing were someone who kicks like Kevin Kopka to come onto the scene today. Things get better over time. As the talent pool gets larger and more people get interested in a particular position, they practice their craft to try and perfect it.
Fuller is a soccer player who stepped in to kick. You may think it’s a publicity stunt, but she hasn’t spent years working on this craft. But somewhere there’s a little girl who saw her try and is going to go out back with her Dad and start working on her kicking.
And 20 years from now, somebody might be talking about that little girl in the way that we are talking about McPherson.
Bye Week
There was some chatter on Twitter today that the SEC might decide to cancel next week’s games for the Gators and Tide if Florida and Alabama both clinch their divisions this week.
From a competitive perspective, it makes sense. Why allow one of them to get picked off by either LSU or Arkansas in the final week if one or both is going to get into the playoff after the SEC Championship? And if you want to see Florida’s defense really improve, give them two weeks to prepare for Alabama with a full, real bye week to make adjustments rather than the COVID break that they had earlier in the season.
But I don’t like running scared. LSU and Arkansas should be wins, but part of what makes the SEC special is that every week is a battle and you have to earn it on the field. The College Football Playoff Committee might not value that, as they keep putting Ohio State in the top-4 despite the Buckeyes probably not being able to even play half the games of its SEC brethren. But that should be something the SEC values.
Play the games. If Arkansas or LSU gets the win, that’s a testament to your conference, not a black mark. Earn your way in, because that will prepare your teams to not just make the playoffs, but to win them.
Tennessee Week
In 2018, I went to the Florida game in Knoxville with the Gators coming in still licking its wounds from the aforementioned loss to Kentucky.
My brother and I got heckled by Vols fans heading into the stadium for wearing our Gators gear and were taunted with things I can’t really repeat. Once we got to our seats, the creamsickle-laden fans surrounding us let us know we were in enemy territory and Rocky Top blared over…and over….and over.
And then Florida jumped up 14-0.
By the time Freddie Swain got open for his 65-yard touchdown from Feleipe Franks to make it 26-3, nobody was singing Rocky Top anymore. Everyone around us was quiet but we most definitely weren’t.
Part of that is because Tennessee meant something to me when I was in school from ’99-‘03. The Vols actually won a few back then. Spurrier got ‘em in ’99 and ’00, but the Vols knocked us out of the race for the title in 2001 with the game reschedule due to 9/11. The teams split in ’02 and ’03.
But in 2005, Urban Meyer came to town. Rivals became important, and Meyer hated losing to rivals and so Florida essentially eliminated Tennessee as a rival by continuously beating the Vols like a drum.
This week feels like 2001 all over again. The Gators are in position for a championship, with a QB putting up Heisman-worthy numbers. And Florida has to go to Knoxville in the cold weather and has a chance to cement the SEC East. The key difference is the Vols were a good team in 2001 and that isn’t true now.
But my experiences with them in my formative years prevent me from taking them for granted.
I don’t think there is a Travis Stephens on Tennessee’s roster, but I hope Florida has learned from the last two games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky and comes out humming on all cylinders.
Because there’s nothing worse than losing to Tennessee and then having to hear that friggin’ song.