By Will Miles
Marco Wilson needed to return to Florida
Marco Wilson missed most of 2018 with a serious knee injury, so he knows the risk he’s taking by coming back to the Gators. But I think he made a wise decision to come back to Florida for one more season.
Wilson isn’t particularly big (listed at 6-feet tall, 190 lbs). He spent the year playing a position – the star – that was manned in 2018 by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (5’11”, 204 lbs). That position favors someone built like Gardner-Johnson and doesn’t allow Wilson to accentuate where his strengths lie.
Because of that, the tape on Wilson would have shown someone who missed tackles too often, and at least early in the season, looked a little bit tentative on his surgically repaired knee.
Beyond being out of position, the last time Wilson played corner full-time (2017), the Gators defensive backfield wasn’t very good. That Gators squad gave up 8.0 yards per play, ranking 105th in the country.
So what you have is a corner who wouldn’t have had elite tape from 2017, had a serious knee injury in 2018 and played out of position in 2019. The decision to come back and play true corner makes all the sense in the world.
Trevon Grimes didn’t need to return to Florida
On the flip side, I don’t think Trevon Grimes needed to come back at all.
When NFL guys are trying to figure out what they want in a receiver, they want a guy who runs good routes, has the size to exploit shorter corners, has breakaway speed and can block downfield.
Grimes ran an official 4.48 40-yard dash coming out of high school. He is listed at 6’5”, 214 lbs. He has shown a willingness to block downfield, both in the running game and on bubble screens. The only area where he really needs to improve is his route running.
The wide receiver position in this draft class is incredibly deep. Because he was sharing time with Van Jefferson, Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain and Tyrie Cleveland, he wasn’t necessarily able to show everything he can do. Of course, if I’m a scout, I’m wondering why Grimes wasn’t able to displace those guys if he’s truly special.
But if Grimes can catch 60 passes and show an ability to consistently make big plays, he’s going to be a high round pick. That likely wasn’t going to be the case if he left after this season.
This is really a bet for Grimes on himself.
I’m still thrilled both will be part of the 2020 Gators team
None of this is meant as a criticism for Wilson or Grimes. Both are excellent players who have contributed and will be major contributors in 2020.
In fact, I think 2020 may be the most important year of the Dan Mullen era, so having Grimes, Wilson and Shawn Davis on board is critical to making the progress that Gators fans want to see.
The return of Wilson and Davis means Florida is going to have a ton of experience in the defensive backfield. Yes, C.J. Henderson is leaving for the NFL, but the experience gained by Kaiir Elam, Chester Kimbrough and Jaydon Hill will pay off in 2020. Donovan Stiner and Brad Stewart return with a ton of experience as well. And don’t forget that the Gators are adding early enrollees Jahari Rogers (120th nationally) and Ethan Pouncey (128th nationally) to the defensive backfield.
We all saw what happened to Georgia last season when the Bulldogs lost all of its wide receivers. Jake Fromm had his worst year by far. That means having Grimes – and hopefully Kadarius Toney as well – gives Kyle Trask the best chance to succeed.
Receiver and defensive end are the places where Florida really needs to find replacements in 2020. Grimes helps with the former. Transfers are likely to help with the latter.
Dan Mullen relying heavily on transfers. Is that a good thing?
Dan Mullen has brought in some highly touted recruits this cycle.
Defensive end Brenton Cox and running back Lorenzo Lingard are both former 5-star recruits. Jordan Pouncey is only a 3-star, but he shows some skills on tape and obviously comes with his 4-star brother Ethan. This is on the heels of bringing in transfers Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes in 2018 and Jonathan Greenard in 2018.
The question is whether this is a good thing?
I do think it’s fair to question the strategy. I happen to think it is a good one, but it is certainly a high variance strategy.
What I mean by that is that when you bring in a typical 5-star recruit, the expectation is that you will get three productive years out of that player with a season or two where they are a true difference maker. But if Lingard or Cox turn into difference makers immediately – which should be the expectation given their pedigree – they are both likely to declare for the NFL Draft following the 2020 season.
But that’s also why it is worth it to take the chance. Mullen has already hit on Jefferson, Grimes and Greenard. These guys have an even higher pedigree so you would expect Mullen to hit on them as well. And this team has been solid the last two seasons but what it has been missing is a true difference maker.
Obviously you’d like to see that difference maker at the QB position (just look what it did for LSU), but if Lingard can hit home runs and Cox can terrorize opposing QBs, it will make Florida a ton better.
For various reasons, 2020 is really the year that Florida has to make its move. These guys make that a possibility.
Why have they not used the portal on an offensive lineman?
One area that I really expected Mullen to use the transfer portal was at offensive line.
It obviously was the one glaring weakness on the offense last year, and is probably the reason that Florida couldn’t beat either LSU or Georgia. I’m not sure anyone would have beaten the Tigers this year, but Florida had the best shot and Trask’s interception happened on a third-and-short. And against Georgia, Florida drives stalled because of an inability to get a yard or two when it was needed.
But maybe Mullen knows something the rest of us don’t.
Last season, Florida recruited heavily on the offensive line. Michael Tarquin, William Harrod, Riley Simonds, Kingsley Eguakun and Ethan White all signed, with White becoming a key cog by the end of the year. Those guys are going to start to push the starters in 2020, four of whom will be returning.
But there have also been rumblings that 2020 4-star recruit Sedrick Van Pran (111th ranked nationally) might flip from Georgia to Florida. Van Pran does have an official visit with the Gators set up for January 31.
I still think if there might be some value to bringing in a transfer lineman if he’s a high-level starter. But if that player isn’t out there, I do think there’s plenty of evidence that John Hevesy should be able to ensure the line shows significant improvement next season.
With Lorenzo Lingard in the fold, what happens to Malik Davis?
Lingard’s arrival in Gainesville may impact presumptive starter Dameon Pierce slightly. But if the offensive line is improved, there should be enough carries to satisfy those two.
But the arrival of Lingard does cast some doubt on the future of other running backs. In particular, the one who seems most significant to me is Malik Davis.
Davis has struggled to stay healthy and seemed to end up in Mullen’s dog house after fumbling (on what looked like a potential touchdown) a pitch against Miami. He did play in 11 games this season, but only averaged 2.5 yards per rush on 34 carries.
That’s a far cry from his 2017 season when he was probably the Gators most dynamic offensive player and averaged 6.7 yards per rush prior to a season ending injury.
Other running backs – like Iverson Clement or Nayquan Wright – haven’t really proven anything on the field as Gators yet. But Davis is different. He was really, really good in 2017. Maybe that isn’t the case anymore as the injuries have taken their toll.
But I suspect that the offensive line struggles impacted Davis as well. Here’s hoping that he gets an opportunity against in 2020 to prove that he’s still the player we saw in 2017.
Grantham leaving or staying?
With the hiring of Mike Leach at Mississippi State, it appears at this point that Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham will be staying in Gainesville.
This is the second time in as many seasons that Grantham has flirted with leaving and so 2020 is probably the last hurrah for him as a Gator.
I’m not sure that’s an altogether bad thing. The Gators have gotten exactly what they should have expected from Grantham, but I suspect they’re approaching their ceiling under his direction.
The reason I say this is that as defensive coordinator at Georgia, Louisville and Mississippi State from 2010-2017, Grantham’s defenses averaged a ranking of 29th in yards per play allowed. Florida has averaged a rank of 29th in the same stat from 2018-2019 under Grantham.
In the same time-frame at his previous stops, Grantham’s defenses ranked 36th in points per game allowed. Florida’s defenses have averaged a ranking of 18th in the same statistic under Grantham. This indicates that the Gators defense has been a little bit lucky.
Whether or not the Gators regress in 2020, Grantham is pretty much the exact defensive coordinator that he was at his previous stops. The expectation that Florida is going to from a top-20 or top-30 defense to a top-5 defense is probably misguided.
Grantham has certainly been a huge step-up from Randy Shannon. The question is whether he can be one more step-up from who he’s been previously.
Gators worth taking a chance on in the NFL Draft
One of the players that I really enjoyed watching in his time at Florida was Lamical Perine. There was something so poetic watching a player who was deemed “too slow” by Auburn deliver the dagger against the Tigers in the Swamp earlier this year.
But was I to pick the Gators who are going to excel in the NFL, Perine isn’t the first player I would look at. While Van Jefferson, Tyrie Cleveland and Freddie Swain got a ton of the attention this year, one player who was easy to overlook was Josh Hammond.
But Hammond had a 20-game streak where he didn’t post a single drop. He also is an excellent blocker on the outside, something else that brings value beyond just his ability to catch the ball.
But at a more fundamental level, Hammond didn’t really start to excel in high school until his senior season, increasing his catches from 16 to 25 to 68 from his Sophomore year to his Senior year. I suspect that means that he wasn’t a polished player coming to UF and so still has room to grow.
On the defensive side of the ball, the guy who may end up being the best Gator in this draft class is linebacker David Reese.
Reese showed a ton of leadership during the 2017 season, standing in front of cameras and answering questions as Jim McElwain shied away from taking responsibility. But beyond that, Reese posted 324 tackles in his four years at Florida and the Gators defense was noticeably worse when he was not on the field (see, Kentucky in 2018).
He’s not the fastest player in the world, but he reminds me a little bit of Zach Thomas at Texas Tech. Thomas ran a 4.85 40-yard dash prior to the draft and so dropped to the 5th round despite totaling 390 tackles in his career and garnering All-American awards.
Reese didn’t show that kind of production or get recognized with those kinds of awards. Thomas is a Hall-of-Fame NFL player and I’m not saying Reese will approximate that. But what I am saying is that some team is going to get a really good player if they decide to overlook speed and size concerns and instead focus on productivity.
Miami 17th and FSU 21st in recruiting rankings – this is Mullen’s shot for state supremacy
Mullen has a unique opportunity to own the State of Florida.
After beating both Miami and FSU in 2019, Florida can brag that it is the state champs. And while Florida has struggled to wrangle recruits – even those from Florida – from the likes of Alabama, Georgia and Clemson, they shouldn’t have the same issue drawing those recruits away from the in-state rivals.
That appears to be the case.
Overall, Miami’s recruiting class ranks 17th overall in the 247Sports Composite ranking. That includes three of the top-20 recruits in the state of Florida. Florida State’s recruiting class ranks 21st overall and includes one of the top-20 recruits in the state.
If Florida can get the commitment of safety Avantae Williams on signing day, the Gators will end up with five of the top-20 recruits in the state. Considering that Mullen only signed 7 of the top-20 in the 2018 and 2019 classes, this is a real step-up for the Gators.
The fact that Mullen is now starting to assert himself in recruiting in the state is a really good sign for the future of this team under this regime.
National Championship Musings
We could take a lot of lessons from LSU’s victory Monday night over Clemson. But the one that I want to focus on is how having a QB with an elite ceiling matters.
Trevor Lawrence torched Alabama last year and was clearly better last season than Tua Tagovailoa. That doesn’t mean that Lawrence had a better season, but it meant that his peak was high enough that if he hit it, nobody was going to beat Clemson. Indeed, even though his 2019 campaign was better than his 2018 season, Lawrence was unable to conjure up his peak performance against LSU and so Clemson went down.
One of the reasons Lawrence struggles was probably that he was having to keep up with Joe Burrow running on all cylinders. Burrow was unbelievable this season, and in the same way that Trevor Lawrence differentiated Clemson in 2018, Burrow was able to differentiate LSU in this one. Burrow played about as close to his ceiling all season long as any QB I’ve ever seen. But the fact that his ceiling is that high is the reason that LSU is the champion.
So that’s really the question that Dan Mullen needs to answer this offseason. If the goal for Florida is SEC and National Championships, then it likely is going to take a QB who has an elite ceiling. Kyle Trask is a really good player, but whether he has that next gear is really what will help UF differentiate in 2020.
That’s what I think is at the heart of the Emory Jones/Trask argument that has broken out amongst fans ever since the season ended. There’s a recognition that to beat Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow, you’re going to need one of your own.