by Will Miles
Missouri Blitz
Florida spent most of the week as a 13-point favorite against Missouri. After the announcement that the secondary had been decimated by COVID-related protocols, the line went….up to -13.5.
Vegas took into account something most of us should have as well (full disclosure, I picked Florida to win 41-27), which was that Missouri had a rookie QB on the road against a team whose pride was hurt against Texas A&M.
Say what you will about Florida’s performance against Ole Miss, but the Gators won comfortably. You can say the same thing against South Carolina, where Will Muschamp successfully ran out the clock and prevented any real stress from being placed on the Gators.
But when the stress was put on Florida by Texas A&M, both the offense and the defense folded. After being up 28-17, the Gators only scored 10 more points and gave up 24. Say what you will about the defense (and I have), but the Gators last four offensive possessions consisted of a punt, a fumble, a field goal and a touchdown.
The offense continued to stumble against Missouri early, settling for two field goals, surrendering a pick-6 and then two straight punts (on 7 plays). But this time, the defense was up to the task, holding on until the offense could finally get untracked.
I’m not sure how good Missouri is. But I do know that Florida didn’t practice much at all, this wasn’t a normal bye week, and the Gators managed to fix some issues that they had in the first three weeks and they did all that missing a large chunk of their personnel.
A win in the SEC is a big deal during normal times. During this 10-game season, it’s an even bigger deal. Coming off of the last three weeks, I’m not sure you could ask for more than 41-17.
Defense (finally!)
The big difference for Florida in this one was that the defense finally showed up.
After a little bit of a shaky first quarter (Missouri drove down the field and missed a field goal and then missed on a deep throw that was dropped), the Gators defense ramped things up.
Last season, you could count on Grantham’s guys to have one quarter where they completely shut down the opposition. It happened against Miami, Kentucky, Tennessee and others. The only teams it didn’t happen against were LSU and Georgia, which were the only two losses.
This season we’d yet to see that kind of performance. Then the Gators only gave up 30 yards in the second quarter, forcing two punts and a fumble that put its offense in good position and helped the Gators take the lead and then extend that lead to 20-6 going into the half.
Then the defense only gave up 4 (!) yards in the third quarter, as the Gators put together two touchdown drives sandwiched around a 3-and-out to extend the lead to 34-10.
This defense doesn’t have to be lights out. It only has to hold down an opponent for one drive a quarter – or for an entire quarter – for the Gators offense to take advantage and spring out front.
Lots of focus will be on the defensive backs, but I think most of the focus should be on the defensive line. Jeremiah Moon, Brenton Cox, Zachary Carter and Marlon Dunlap all played well. The addition of Kyree Campbell to Tedarrell Slaton in the middle helped Florida live in the backfield.
Campbell’s return no-doubt made a difference. But I suspect that the confidence that the defense was able to build in the game was probably a big part of the success too. It’s easy to get down on yourself when you aren’t able to get a stop and don’t feel like you’re pulling your weight.
Nobody could say that about the defense against Mizzou.
Toney Terrific
Coming into this season, one of the big questions was how the Gators would replace the production from its senior wide receivers?
Well, the answer was apparently Kadarius Toney.
Toney was fantastic against Missouri, producing 101 yards on 8 touches and 3 TD. But Toney’s been good all year.
Missouri was actually his game with the fewest catches on the year. He has a TD catch in every game this year so far. And he’s running free whenever the defense is dumb enough to give him a one-on-one match-up.
I know that his run on the screen pass for the TD where he broke a bunch of tackles made the Sportscenter top-10. But his route that got him open for the touchdown to put the Gators up 20-6 was his best play of the game. He absolutely torched the corner right at the line of scrimmage.
Usually when you see a receiver that wide open, it means the defense busted a coverage. In this case, it was just because the defensive back got beat that badly.
Ho, Hum Trask
Kyle Trask had an okay night against Mizzou.
That’s a funny thing to write after Trask just finished off another 4 TD performance (his fourth of the season) and when he’s sporting a QB Rating of 189.2.
But Trask’s QB Rating actually went down in this one. In part, that’s because he threw just his second INT of the season. In part, that’s because Florida’s offensive line struggled to protect him early in the game. And in part, that’s because Trask has set the bar so high that when the offense is settling for field goals and he’s only completing 58% of his passes, it seems like a bit of a struggle.
But that’s perhaps what’s so remarkable about this run that Trask is on. He’s been so consistently excellent that when he isn’t perfect, it’s noticeable. He had QB ratings of 201.8 vs. Ole Miss, 188.7 vs. South Carolina, 195.0 vs. Texas A&M and now 169.9 vs. Missouri.
His best QB rating last season was 168.6 against Tennessee.
I remember thinking at the half that Trask had really struggled, and then I looked at the stat line and he had 271 yards passing. With the offensive struggles that Florida has had in recent years, perhaps that’s the only thing not ho, hum about Kyle Trask.
He makes the exceptional way he’s playing seem ordinary.
Fight evaluation
There have been a lot of hot takes regarding the fight that occurred right before halftime in the game against Missouri.
I don’t buy for a minute that Dan Mullen was going out on the field to keep his players from getting suspended. I agree with the idea that he probably made the situation worse by going out on the field. And certainly any time you have players trading blows in a big pile, it’s not a good look.
I’m okay if you call for Mullen to get suspended so long as you’re consistent. That’s why Hutson Mason’s comments on Monday were perplexing.
Mason was the color analyst on SEC Network Alternate and said twice on the live broadcast that he thought Mullen was running out on the field to keep his players from doing something stupid.
He then went on Paul Finebaum’s show and said, “When Dan Mullen came on the field is when things started to unravel…If I’m a player and I see what Dan Mullen did, it almost justifies that I can do something like that.” He tweeted essentially the same thing, saying this was “my takeaway’s from seeing this unfold live in the booth last night.”
So why the two completely different reactions?
Could it be that Mason heard the criticism, went back and re-watched the brawl and changed his mind? Fine, then say that. But don’t pretend that your live reaction was anything other than lauding Mullen for trying to get his players off the field.
And if Mason is going to go back and critique the tape, he should look inwards. In particular, the cringeworthy segment where he implied that Jade Carraway – Kyle Trask’s girlfriend and a starting centerfield on the Gators softball team – couldn’t catch Trask’s throws during COVID quarantine.
The implication that girls can’t catch was sexist and wrong. And while you could perhaps give Mason the benefit of the doubt that it was an innocent mistake, it wasn’t made in the heat of the moment like Mullen’s mistake that Mason is now criticizing after the fact. The crew clearly had intended to bring up Trask’s girlfriend and Mason came off as a buffoon even though he should have been prepared.
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised his judgment is off though. He did, after all, go to Georgia.
Darth Gator
I think Dan Mullen could have done a better job at handling his actions during the fight. But I also think that when emotions get elevated, sometimes doing the right thing is difficult.
Yes, he’s the adult and should be able to control himself. But let’s not kid ourselves. These coaches get fired up at officials and run out onto the field all the time. The idea that Mullen would possibly think that his running out on the field would facilitate a brawl is pretty laughable.
However, dressing up as Darth Vader in the post-game press conference is a different story altogether. Without the brawl, I actually have zero problem with Mullen doing it. After a win against Missouri, on Halloween, as a nod to his kids…sure, why not?
But after running out onto the field and egging on the fans before halftime, and combined with the public relations issues he’s had recently with COVID, this just didn’t seem like the wise thing to do.
I’m reminded of a scene in the movie Bull Durham where veteran Crash Davis lectures Tim Robbin’s character Nuke LaLoosh the following:
“Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You’ll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes. Think classy, you’ll be classy. If you win 20 in the show, you can let the fungus grow back and the press’ll think you’re colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you’re a slob.”
Mullen has been really good at Mississippi State. He’s had a really good start at Florida. But he’s yet to win an SEC division title, let alone an SEC title or National title. The Darth Gator outfit is colorful if he starts winning big.
But it means something completely different if next week he’s 0-3 against Georgia.
On to Georgia
So now we get to the main event. Florida vs. Georgia in the game formerly known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
We suspected the season would come down to this, and boy does it ever.
If Florida wins, the Gators will have overcome their main nemesis, have essentially a 2-game lead with 5 to go, and none of those 5 are ranked opponents.
If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs will have stifled its main competition again, have the same 2-game lead but with 4 games to go against unranked opponents.
This is the SEC East Super Bowl.
Georgia already proved to be inferior to Alabama, at least when the Tide had Jaylen Waddle. After the game, Nick Saban admitted afterwards that, “It used to be that good defense beats good offense. Good defense doesn’t beat good offense anymore.”
Florida has an elite offense, but has yet to come up against a defense as gifted or productive as Georgia’s. Dan Mullen is an offensive coach. He was brought to Florida to take a team that couldn’t score and make it so nobody could outscore them.
He’ll get his chance to prove Saban either right or wrong Saturday afternoon.
Stetson Bennett
Normally, games like this come down to QB play. That means Florida should be favored in this game, as Kyle Trask (QB Rating 189.2) is going up against Stetson Bennett (QB Rating 134.7).
Bennett played reasonably well against Arkansas (QB Rating 152.8), Auburn (144.5) and Tennessee (157.7). But things cratered against Alabana (103.0) and Kentucky (123.1). This is what we should expect from a guy with 164 career throws who was a walk-on who started the year behind both Jamie Newman and Diwan Mathis on the depth chart.
In my season preview (after Newman had departed), I predicted a 10-0 season for the Bulldogs. But I predicted that because I thought they were going to hand the reins to 5-star transfer QB J.T. Daniels. For whatever reasons – whether injury or performance – Daniels has yet to see the field.
That’s a problem for Georgia. Bennett has done an admirable job of filling in, but that’s what he is: a fill-in. He’s not the kind of QB who should be starting at the University of Georgia. In fact, the guy who should be starting for the Bulldogs is Justin Fields, who is a Heisman candidate at a different school and also the main player in the worst fake punt call of all time.
It’s really a dereliction of duty that Smart doesn’t have a bevy of players to step in at QB. Last cycle, he signed Carson Beck, the 250th ranked overall recruit. The year before that, he signed Mathis (311th). The year before that, he signed Fields (2nd). Add in the transfers of Newman and Daniels and the fact that Bennett – who 247Sports described as “not super productive in junior college with a high interception rate and low yards per attempt” – has to be the savior should be disturbing.
Maybe Georgia is talented enough to win with a game manager at QB. Maybe they get to Atlanta at 9-1 with a chance to make the playoff. But they’re not getting past Alabama with Bennett at QB.
I’m not sure they’re getting past Florida.
Georgia Injuries
The Bulldogs have a ton of injuries on defense, including one to safety Richard LeCounte, who was involved in a motorcycle accident on Saturday night but thankfully is okay.
But that’s a huge loss for Georgia. Florida fans should remember LeCounte, as he was the defensive back on the fourth-and-1 on the opening drive who was in one-on-one coverage against Kyle Pitts. Pitts dominates everyone physically. He wasn’t able to do that to LeCounte last season and ended the game against Georgia with 4 catches for 78 yards but wasn’t a force like he has been in 2020.
With LeCounte out, that means Georgia is going to have to make a decision. Do they help the guy stepping in for LeCounte and double-team Pitts? Or do they double-team Kadarius Toney, who has quietly become a deadly route runner.
I think the answer is actually you should double-team Toney or play zone, which means Pitts should get a bunch of opportunities to shine.
LeCounte isn’t the only Bulldog injured either. Nose tackle Jordan Davis is questionable with an elbow injury (his arm was in a sling on the sideline) and defensive lineman Julian Rochester is out after an ACL tear.
If Georgia can’t get pressure on Trask and can’t cover Pitts, it’s going to be a long day for the Bulldogs defense. Part of the reason you recruit so hard is to replace guys who go down with injuries.
We’ll see if Georgia’s reserves are able to step up on defense.
This is the shot
Two years ago, Florida lost to Georgia 36-17 with Feleipe Franks at QB. Franks threw a bullet to Freddie Swain on the first drive of the second half to put Florida up 14-13 but then Florida only gained 78 yards the rest of the game. Last season, Florida lost 24-17 to the Bulldogs, but were down 16-3 at one point after gaining only 104 yards in the first half.
You might say the Gators are catching up. After all, they lost by 19 in the first game but only 7 in the second. But Georgia outgained Florida 398 to 278 in 2019 after outgaining the Gators 429 to 275. The difference in the score was three turnovers in 2018 and Georgia’s contentment to run the ball 37 times.
Look at any kind of stat you want for either of those games and Georgia likely dominated. But the thing that made the Bulldogs feel in control at all times was one immutable fact: Jake Fromm was the better QB.
That isn’t the case in 2020. Kyle Trask is much better than Stetson Bennett.
And while Georgia had a plethora of weapons in 2018 in Isaac Nauta, Mecole Hardman, Riley Ridley and D’Andre Swift, those players are not coming to Jacksonville this weekend.
Instead, you have Florida with the best two weapons on the field in Pitts and Toney.
And I’ve spent plenty of time discussing why I think Dan Mullen is a better head coach than Kirby Smart. He has outcoached him against teams with similar talent. He’s got a much better record against teams with more talent than he has. And Smart is usually good for a head scratching moment or two each game.
This is Mullen’s shot.
That doesn’t mean this is a “must win” for Mullen in that he would get fired for losing. But if you can’t beat Georgia when you have all of the advantages I’ve cited above, then when is it going to happen?
I can analyze stats all I want about how Mullen does a better job than Smart, but Bill Parcells summed up football best when he stated, “you are what your record says you are.”
1-2 against Georgia means the program is progressing and growing. 0-3 against Georgia means you are what your record says you are.