By Will Miles
Arkansas Evisceration
It wasn’t so much that Florida beat Arkansas 63-35 that was impressive. It was how they did it.
At no point – even after Feleipe Franks hit Mike Woods for a 47-yard TD to tie the game at 7 – did it feel like the Gators had anything to worry about. It was just clear from the very start that Arkansas had zero answers for the Florida offense.
Early in the week, I wasn’t really concerned that Florida would win the game. But a 17.5 point line seemed like a lot for a team with a defense that has struggled and coming off of an emotional win against Georgia.
But if there’s one thing that’s become clear about this team coming off of its COVID-19 induced hiatus, things have shifted into business mode.
The defense still has work to do, but those were mostly reserves who gave up the final two touchdowns after going up 56-21 after the fumble recovery for the touchdown. And yes, the Gators gave up some explosive plays. But with the way the offense is playing, those are almost acceptable.
You may have seen some stats going around comparing this offense to the LSU offense from last season. That’s actually a pretty good comparison, as the Gators this year are averaging 7.3 yards per play compared to LSU averaging 7.6.
But you may have also seen some favorable comparisons to the LSU defense and that’s a little bit harder for me, as the Tigers gave up 5.0 yards per play while Florida is currently giving up 5.8. That may not seem like much, but over the course of a year, it makes a huge difference.
Still, the Arkansas game was the one I was worried about of the ones remaining on the schedule. Coming off the Georgia win with a motivated Feleipe Franks coming to town and an opposing defense that had forced a ton of turnovers, it could have been an opportunity for a let-up.
Instead, Florida put its foot on the gas and left no doubt they’re a real contender.
McElwain/Muschamp Eras Long Gone
With the 63-point explosion against Arkansas and the dismissal of Will Muschamp at South Carolina, I think it’s worthwhile taking a step back and appreciating how far we’ve come since the Muschamp and McElwain eras.
Muschamp’s teams were known for anemic offenses, and they were, finishing 71st, 78th, 113th and 55th in point per game. But that was mere child’s play compared to McElwain, who presided over offenses that ranked 100th, 107th and 109th in scoring.
Mullen immediately improved that to 22nd in 2018, took a little bit of a step back to 29th in 2019, but now is ranked 6th in 2020. But I think it’s how Mullen has made those jumps that is so impressive (and is going to make keeping the NFL at bay a difficult proposition).
In 2018, Florida started Feleipe Franks at QB and threw the ball 40.8% of the time against FBS opponents. That team had a solid offensive line and Franks was a relatively effective runner. But in 2019 with Trask taking over for an injured Franks, Florida threw the ball 56.7%. That team had a weak offensive line but a QB who made quick decisions.
This season, Mullen is again throwing the ball a lot, but only at 54.1%. That’s partly because the offensive line is better. But it’s also partly because getting Trask ahead of the yard sticks is deadly.
Beyond just the run/pass ratios though, Mullen has schemed beautifully in every game thus far. Against Ole Miss, the Gators came out to exploit Kyle Pitts as the matchup nightmare that he is. Then, when Texas A&M focused on Pitts, Kadarius Toney was the focal point.
Then against Georgia – with Toney and Pitts taking up all the attention – the gameplan focused on the Florida running backs. And finally against Arkansas, Pitts replacement and the Florida wide receivers not named Toney got in on the act as Trask spread the ball around.
When Pitts gets back, Florida has two cheat codes in one-on-one coverage. But the offense works best when Trask is able to find the open man and deliver the ball on-time. You can’t double everyone, and that’s what we saw against Arkansas.
It just made me really appreciate how far we’ve come from the time when we – and even the color announcer – knew that the ball was going to Brandon Powell on every third and fourth down.
Second Quarter Explosions
Florida outscored Georgia 24-7 in the second quarter two weeks ago (and the 7 for Georgia was a self-inflicted pick-six). Florida outscored Arkansas 28-7 in the second quarter this week.
But there is another second quarter trend that is much more consistent in 2020.
Against Ole Miss, Florida scored with 5 second left to go into halftime up 28-14. Against South Carolina, they scored with 1:22 left. Against Missouri is was with 1:08 left and with 11 second left against Georgia.
So it shouldn’t’ have been a surprise when Kyle Trask hit Keon Zipperer with 17 seconds left against Arkansas to finish off the second quarter explosion with a 35-14 lead.
I know there’s been talk of lack of a “killer instinct” in the second half, but the reality is that the Gators have killed off their opponent at the end of the first half in most of their games. The only time that didn’t happen was against Texas A&M, where the Aggies drove down for a field goal to close the gap to 21-17 at the half.
It has to be demoralizing to feel like you just need to get in to the locker room at half-time to regroup on defense and all of a sudden, you’re down 14 or 21 points instead of 7. This all really comes down to Trask, because you can’t do that repeatedly without an effective two-minute drill.
And you can’t have an effective two-minute drill without a QB playing at a high level.
Trask Terrific
Saying Trask is playing at a high level is actually a bit of an insult.
I thought he played well against Ole Miss, South Carolina and Texas A&M. Then he played better against Missouri. Then he played even better against Georgia. There were still things he could work on but he was the reason the offense was humming.
But his performance against Arkansas was a masterpiece.
I have absolutely nothing to criticize about Trask from this game. He was on-target with every throw. He took what the defense gave him when that was the appropriate thing to do. He took shots downfield when that was the appropriate thing to do.
But one thing I saw in the Arkansas game that I haven’t seen a ton of this season is that he threw his receivers open.
That’s an important progression point for Trask because you have to do that at the NFL level. But it’s an important progression for Florida because if Trask is throwing his receivers open, this offense is unstoppable regardless of the talent level on the other side of the field.
Take the back-shoulder throw to Justin Shorter that put the Gators up 21-7. That throw was from the opposite hash. It was thrown on a rope. And it was put in a position where only Shorter could get the ball.
It was a great catch by Shorter. But I’m not sure a Pro Bowl NFL corner would be able to stop that play. And that’s an important distinction from last year’s team as Florida progresses to tougher opponents down the road.
Heisman Chances?
Is Trask going to win the Heisman?
Prior to the Georgia game, I would have put his chances in the 5-10% range. Following that game, I would have put it at maybe 35%. But now that he doesn’t seem to be slowing down any – and actually seems to be getting appreciably better – I’d say you put the odds at whatever you think the Gators chances of taking down Alabama are.
That’s because his main competition for the award is Crimson Tide QB Mac Jones.
Jones has been fantastic this season as well, averaging over 12 yards per attempt and putting up video game numbers much like Trask. But since he’s the Alabama QB, he’s going to be penalized for having more talent around him than other players. Still, you don’t put up numbers like Jones and miss out on the trophy if you run the table in the SEC in an all-conference schedule.
But that’s why Trask has a better chance to win than other presumed favorites like Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence. By the end of the season, Trask is going to have played more game than Fields (because of the Big Ten starting late) and Lawrence (because of missed games due to COVID).
He will have played the exact same number of games as Jones and if Florida wins, would have the head-to-head battle. And you would expect Trask to be able to do some stat padding in the next 3-4 weeks as the Gators finish out their schedule.
So take care of business heading into Atlanta and pull off a win against the Tide and the award is Trask’s. That’s crazy to think about considering the feeling we all had when he came in against Kentucky last year.
But if there’s one thing 2020 has taught us, it’s to expect the crazy.
Offensive Line Play
I don’t want it to get lost in the play of Trask that the offensive line is a big part of why he’s being successful as well.
Trask gets rid of the ball quickly, which helps the offensive line look good. But on the deep touchdown pass to Jacob Copeland, Trask could have ordered a pizza. Left tackle Stone Forsythe, in particular, has really turned into a fine player.
The offensive line’s improvement is reflected in the advanced stats as well.
Florida ranks first in the country in power success rate (runs on third or fourth and two or less that achieve a first down or TD). They rank 15th in sack rate and 14th in sack rate on passing downs. So Florida is converting third-and-short – something it couldn’t do last season – and is keeping Trask clean even when the defense knows he has to throw.
We shouldn’t take this for granted. What it means is that Florida can kill you with a 14-play drive, or a 2-play drive. That kind of versatility makes it really hard to defend and is a big reason they are averaging 46 points per game.
Third and Grantham?
After the Texas A&M game, there was much consternation in the Gator fan base about Todd Grantham, particularly about his inability to get off the field on third down.
That was a valid complaint, considering that the Gators gave up a 59% third-down conversion rate in its first three games. That number has dropped to 21% the last three though, meaning either the Gators found something on defense or they were playing easier opponents.
Unfortunately, I think it’s more the latter.
Ole Miss (#8) and Texas A&M (#2) rank extremely high in third-down conversion rate. South Carolina (#75), Missouri (#52), Georgia (#53) and Arkansas (#89) do not. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Rebels and Gamecocks converted 21 of 29 third downs (72%) while everyone else has converted 14 of 55 (25%).
Fortunately for Florida, the only team ranked even decently in this category coming up on the schedule are Vanderbilt (#29) and Kentucky (#36). Neither of these teams have decent offenses though so they are going to struggle to exploit Florida the same way Matt Corral and Kellen Mond did.
Tennessee (#118) and LSU (#101) are terrible at converting third-downs and so I suspect Florida will be able to get off the field against them as well.
Bama’s the worry. The Tide are ranked 5th in third-down conversions. They’re also ranked 3rd in total offense (measured in yards per play).
I’m not sure if Florida is going to be able to topple Alabama. All I know is if you think they will, I don’t care what the number is, you need to take the over.
Is Kyrie Campbell really that important?
The defensive improvement has certainly come against inferior offenses, but it has also coincided with the return of Kyrie Campbell. It does make you wonder whether Campbell is really the lynchpin of the defense.
We saw this years ago with the Indianapolis Colts, where the Colts defense was awful whenever safety Bob Sanders wasn’t in the line-up and then played great the minute Sanders came back. I don’t suspect that improvement was all just because of Sanders, but because his teammates trusted Sanders to do his job and so were able to do theirs better.
I think that’s probably the case with Campbell.
With Campbell eating up space inside, Zach Carter has been able to play more outside at defensive end. That has allowed Brenton Cox to play more Buck. It also has limited the number of double teams that Tedarrell Slaton is seeing.
But it has also helped to keep offensive linemen off of linebackers. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Mohamoud Diabate and Amari Burney have been playing markedly better as they’ve had more of an opportunity to use their speed instead of getting mauled by pulling guards.
There is still a ton of work to do on defense. But Campbell solidifying the defensive line was the first step. The linebackers starting to use their speed was the next. If the Gators can figure out some things in pass coverage over the next few weeks, we could end up lauding the defense as the reason for the Gators being able to make a run rather than having to make the run in spite of it.
Vanderbilt awaits
Do we really need to talk about this one?
Based on yards per play, Vandy has the 109th ranked offense and 120th ranked defense. They can’t run the ball (106th in yards per rush). They can’t throw the ball (89th in yards per attempt). They can’t stop the run (122nd in yards per rush allowed). They can’t stop the pass (92nd in yards per attempt allowed).
There’s a reason the Commodores are 0-6.
This should be a game where we see quite a bit of Emory Jones, Anthony Richardson, Ty’ron Hopper, Derek Wingo and Lorenzo Lingard. There aren’t any cupcakes in the SEC, but this is about as close as it gets.
There’s only one thing that makes me nervous about this one. I hope that Mullen doesn’t run any QB powers for Trask. We need him healthy for my next item.
We want Bama?
I hesitate to write this because there are still four games left in the season, but what the hell? I want Bama.
Since Dan Mullen arrived, Georgia has been the measuring stick. He failed that test in 2018 and 2019 but did take steps each year. In year one, the wins over Florida State and Michigan were salves for Gators fans who had dealt with losses to those two teams the year prior. In year two, a repeat win over FSU and an impressive performance against LSU were enough to show progress.
That made Georgia the true measuring stick for progress in year three and this team passed with flying colors. But I’m greedy. Georgia may be the measuring stick for the SEC East, but Alabama is the measuring stick for the SEC.
If you want to play for championships regularly, the Tide is in the way.
Florida fans found that out the hard way in 2015 and 2016, as Jim McElwain’s teams limped to SEC East titles both seasons only to be handled relatively easily by Alabama. But neither of those teams could score. This team can.
In 2008 after Florida lost a heartbreaker to Ole Miss, culminating in the Tebow speech that is now emblazoned at the Swamp and shown on every telecast. Kyle Trask is a very different character than Tebow, but the message he’s sent since that loss is the same one that Tebow sent in ’08. “Watch out!”
The parallels to that 2008 season are getting hard to ignore. Florida had an elite QB who was the driving force behind an unstoppable offense (check). Florida had an early season loss while Alabama was undefeated (check). That Alabama team had a really good defense (umm…48 points to Ole Miss?) but had a major disadvantage at QB. This Tide team has a much better QB but a defense that is suspect similarly to Florida’s.
I don’t know if Florida can take down Saban and the Tide. But I knew they could not in 2015 and 2016. Kyle Trask gives us hope.
He gives us hope that there won’t be any let-downs prior to Atlanta. He gives us hope that we can score with Alabama. And he gives us hope that the magic of those 2006 and 2008 teams may be on its way back to the Swamp.