By Will Miles
Offensive Explosion(s)
The Fun ‘n Gun is back in Gainesville.
After putting up 51 points against an overmatched Mississippi defense, Dan Mullen’s offense put up another 38 against South Carolina. They did that without even moving the ball at all in the fourth quarter, and really for much of the second half.
The offense is explosive, having already put up 10 plays of 20+ yards in the passing game. But more than anything, I no longer fear third-and-12.
That was a down where under Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain, Florida’s offense rarely converted and often had something bad happen. But ever since Trask took over last year, third down is no longer the wasteland that it was.
You can say a lot of things about how well Trask is playing or how much different the offense looks when he’s in charge. But it’s the way I feel (and I think most Gators fans feel) on third-and-long that really tells the tale.
Imperfect Trask
All that being said, I still think Trask has another level to go.
He was excellent against Ole Miss, and there’s not a lot to criticize there. But if we’re nitpicking, he left a lot out there against South Carolina.
The interception wasn’t his fault, although it does seem like he might have been able to hold up after Kadarius Toney fell. The more disturbing thing is that the interception came after a first-down play where he almost threw an interception on a back-shoulder throw (good play by Jacob Copeland to break it up) and then forced a slant into tight coverage when the running back outlet was free on second down.
Every quarterback throws picks. And every quarterback is going to miss reads. But that particular series was the first time all year that I really saw Trask go for throws that required fitting the ball into tight windows rather than throwing to the guy who was wide open.
As his confidence grows, he’s going to try and fit some of those in there. But part of his growth will be realizing that just because he can fit the ball in doesn’t mean he should try.
Dameon Pierce Sighting?
Pierce was great in the first quarter against South Carolina, rushing five times for 27 yards and a TD. Then he only got four more carries. He was effective on those carries too, as he rushed for 51 yards altogether with a 5.7 yards per rush average.
But here’s the issue. Malik Davis has five receptions for 46 yards and Nay’Quan Wright has 2 catches for 30 yards. Pierce? One catch for two yards, and he dropped one against Ole Miss.
It’s pretty clear he’s the most physical runner the Gators have. It’s also really clear that Dan Mullen’s offense needs a running back who can catch the ball out of the backfield, perhaps even more than it needs a running QB.
We always talk about how a QB “fits” Mullen’s offense and that was one reason that people thought Emory Jones would be the backup last year when Feleipe Franks went down. But perhaps we should start thinking about “fit” when it comes to running back.
Lamical Perine fit exactly what Mullen wanted to do. He’s having to get that by committee this year, which is limiting the number of carries that his best back gets.
OL Progress?
Two things can be true at once. First, the offensive line has greatly improved from last year. Second, Kyle Trask is getting hit too much.
Go watch the offense again, even in the first half when all of the scoring was occurring. Trask was having to move around the pocket and getting moved off of his spot quite a bit. The line really struggled with South Carolina stunts, after struggling with the same thing against Ole Miss. And on some of those quick back shoulder throws where the ball gets out fast, Trask was still getting hit.
We can talk all we want about run blocking, but this offense is only going as far as Kyle Trask is able to carry them. The offensive line is going to need to help him stay comfortable and upright for the Gators to get where they want to go this season.
Conversely, Florida is 18th in the country with a 5.2 yards per rush average. That’s after averaging 4.0 yards per rush in 2019.
So that’s why it was a surprise to me that Mullen didn’t rely on Pierce more in the second half. One of the ways to protect your QB is to run the ball. It also opens up play-action and makes his job easier. It also happens to be something his offensive line is doing well.
Hopefully we’ll see some more of it against Texas A&M.
Defensive Implosion(s)
The defense has played poorly in the first two games. Interestingly though, it has been bad in completely different aspects of the game.
Against Ole Miss, the defensive backfield got torched, giving up 443 yards through the air at a 13.4 yards per attempt clip. Against South Carolina, the defense only gave up 212 yards passing at a 4.5 yards per attempt clip.
One thing was consistent across both games: a complete inability to get off of the field.
Ole Miss was 9 of 15 on third and fourth downs. South Carolina was 11 of 23. The Gators 48.4 percent third-down conversion allowed rate would have ranked 124 out of 130 FBS teams last year (Florida was at 34.8 percent last season).
Florida’s defense doesn’t have to be fantastic in 2020 for the Gators to compete for a championship. The offense is that good.
But at some point, the offense is going to turn the ball over too many times, or Trask is going to struggle, or they’re going to come up against a defense that is good enough to force the Gators offense into mistakes.
Whether the defense is able to get off the field in those particular situations likely will determine whether Florida competes for a championship, or watches Georgia play Alabama in the SEC Championship again.
Grantham to Blame?
The fact that the defense has struggled isn’t a surprise to anyone. A lot of the fan ire for the two performances has fallen on Defensive Coordinator Todd Grantham. Is that fair?
In some ways, yes. There has been a striking lack of intensity on the defensive side of the ball thus far. To me, you can deal with physical mistakes and mistakes made because a player is being too aggressive. In fact, that means that the coaches are doing their job.
The things you don’t want to see are mental mistakes or players being tentative. We saw both of those things on the defensive side of the ball against the Rebels and the Gamecocks. Grantham isn’t responsible for the players getting tentative or making mental mistakes, but he is responsible for pulling those guys off of the field.
But who should he put out there? Don’t like Amari Burney making mistakes in coverage? Well, James Houston really struggled taking on offensive linemen in the running game and Mohamoud Diabate struggled in coverage as well.
Don’t like some of the mistakes Marco Wilson is making? Well, we’ll see whether moving him inside to Star with Jaydon Hill on the outside has an effect, because that’s what this week’s depth chart indicates is coming.
Here’s the reality. The past two years when the Gators defense has struggled, Jachai Polite, Jabari Zuniga or Jonathan Greenard made a play that changed the game. That guy hasn’t emerged yet for the 2020 team.
If he doesn’t, we’ll keep complaining about Grantham. If he does, Grantham will look like he’s figured everything out.
Gifts from Muschamp
The other thing to consider when evaluating the defense were the gifts they were given by South Carolina coach Will Muschamp. Muschamp made some perplexing decisions when he was the coach of the Gators, but I don’t remember anything like the past two weeks.
After kicking a field goal with three minutes left in the game and down seven against Tennessee, you would think Muschamp would have reached the peak of his ability to harm his own team with his decision making. But it turns out that Muschamp had to tell himself to hold his beer.
It started with going for it on fourth-and-1 deep in his own territory on a drive with 3:30 left in the third quarter. He then kicked a field goal on the same drive with 28 seconds left in the quarter on fourth-and-2 from the Florida 28.
He then helped Florida ice the game with an 18-play, 74-yard drive that ran 7:23 off of the clock when the Gamecocks took over, down two touchdowns, with 8:05 left.
I get it. South Carolina is not an explosive offensive team. But with first-and-10 at the Florida 25 and 3:08 left, the Gamecocks ran the ball four straight times, three of them designed runs. At the end of it all, there was 1:20 left on the clock and South Carolina was at the Gators 14.
It’s amazing that Muschamp is in his ninth year as a head coach and is still making these kinds of mistakes. It sure makes you appreciate having Dan Mullen on the Gators sideline.
14-points wins
In 2018, Florida beat one SEC opponent by 14 or more points. In 2019, that number was three. So the fact that the Gators are now two for two in 2020 should be cause for celebration. Yet, Mullen has set the bar so high for this program that many Gators fans just aren’t satisfied.
That’s a good thing.
Mullen came to Gainesville in 2018 promising to return the program to the Gator Standard. That standard is championships, and not just SEC Championships.
The expectations that comes with that championship standard was a big reason that Steve Spurrier left. It’s a big reason why Urban Meyer had to move on after he no longer had Tim Tebow or Dan Mullen by his side.
And it will probably be the reason when Mullen finally decides to take the next step in his career as well.
But here’s the thing. Florida is a program that demands championship success. Mullen knew that better than anyone when he came back to campus. Now that he has a Heisman candidate at both QB and tight end, the expectations have ratcheted up.
The last time I remember Florida fans being this anxious over sizable early season wins was after the 26-3 win over Miami in 2008. It just didn’t feel like that team was clicking.
Of course, we all know how 2008 ended.
Bowman Transfer
Recruiting news is usually few-and-far-between in October, but on Saturday, news leaked out that 5-star running back Demarkcus Bowman is transferring to Florida from Clemson. Because this is a free year for NCAA athletes, Bowman will have his full four years of eligibility when he runs out of the tunnel next year.
The addition of Bowman is a big deal. Dan Mullen has never had that kind of talent at the running back position, even with those Urban Meyer Florida teams. It’s going to be fascinating to see what this offense looks like if Bowman (or 5-star transfer Lorenzo Lingard) end up becoming stars.
However, I would caution Gators fans against getting too excited about one player. Bowman is obviously a big deal because he raises the overall talent level of the team. But recruiting is about probabilities. The probability is much higher that Bowman ends up a star than a running back who is ranked in the 200’s. But that doesn’t guarantee anything.
There is still work to be done on the recruiting trail for Mullen and staff. One recruit doesn’t mean all is well and the program has caught up to Georgia and Alabama. But you have to start somewhere, and there’s not a whole lot better place to start than Demarkcus Bowman.
Texas A&M
I’m not sure how big of a test this is actually going to be for Florida. Obviously, I don’t think you can take a lot by A&M’s performance against Alabama because lot of teams get steamrolled by the Tide.
But the fact that the Aggies only put up 17 points against Vanderbilt, and that Mond was actually worse by QB rating against Vandy than Alabama, should be concerning for those in College Station.
Here’s the reality. Mond just hasn’t been very good at QB for Texas A&M. In 2018, he had a QB rating of 135.0. In 2019, it was 131.1. In 2020, it is at 133.0. Those ratings aren’t terrible, but they are on-par with the 2019 seasons of Nate Stanley at Iowa, Bryce Perkins at Virginia and Adrian Martinez at Nebraska.
More disturbing for A&M fans should be that Mond just doesn’t seem to be improving. He’s the same QB today that he was back in 2018.
Maybe the Gators defense is a panacea for Mond and he’s able to get comfortable and finally deliver. But more likely the Gators have a huge mismatch at the most important position in football when you compare Mond against Kyle Trask.
I know who I’m taking in that matchup every day and twice on Sunday.