By Will Miles
Bye Week Malaise
You felt it. I felt it. We all felt the malaise that comes with a bye week and a 4-3 record.
One of the great things about college football is that there is almost always some sort of rooting interest for your team regardless of the situation because you’re constantly comparing yourself to others through who they’ve played. But that only matters if you’re still in contention.
Instead, Saturday provided a reminder of what could have been as Ole Miss dominated LSU in a way that Florida should have. And then Alabama finished off a game Tennessee squad that fought but just didn’t have enough to stop the Tide from steamrolling them.
I love college football. We only get 12 or 13 weeks of this every year, and so by the time February rolls around, I’ll be missing it again. But I’d be lying if I said that this bye week has hyped me up. If anything, it has further brought my mood down as I’ve taken a closer look at what Georgia has been doing.
I maintain hope that Florida will be able to pull out the win. But it is going to be a major upset.
Bye Week Benefits
One place where Florida is really going to benefit from the bye week is in terms of health.
The Gators haven’t had a ton of players miss time because of injuries, but the offensive line has been banged up pretty much since the Alabama game. The result is that the squad that pushed Alabama all over the Swamp has been much more pedestrian in the last few games.
The other injury benefit Florida may get is that a week of rest may start some sort of QB controversy in Athens. J.T. Daniels has been okay this year – certainly not as great as last year – while Stetson Bennett has been otherworldly (QB Rating = 210.9).
But Bennett isn’t that good. Nobody is. He’s going to come down to earth eventually and so I have hope it might be against the Gators. And previously if he struggled, Smart could rely on his defense and Bennett knew he wouldn’t be lifted. But now, Georgia faces the best offense they’ve seen all year, perhaps with Anthony Richardson leading the show, and if Florida should get up early, does that force Kirby’s hand?
Had this game come last week, I’m not sure he would have been able to. But Daniels should be healthy this week, so I’m interested to see what happens. If Bennett struggles, what do you do?
A national championship could depend on the answer.
Grantham retained…for now
We all know it’s over. Even the recruits know it (more on that later), as Florida is starting to experience decommits on the defensive side of the ball.
I’m not sure what Florida is holding onto here. Todd Grantham’s defenses were poor in 2018, 2020 and now is struggling again in 2021. It’s not that they are terrible (well, except for 2020). It’s that I struggle to point to one thing that they do extremely well.
Usually, you can hang your hat on one particular area. That’s obvious over the past two seasons on offense, where the 2020 Gators offense had a strong identity in the passing game and this year has a strong identity in the running game. That just doesn’t exist for the defense.
So I guess the idea is that continuity is the best thing for the team? I doubt that very much when I look at the postgame quotes from Mohamoud Diabate about the adjustments the Gators made against LSU, but perhaps that’s the answer.
Without an identity, the blame for defensive performance will fall squarely on Grantham rather than the players. Make the change now and the players get to hear the criticism regardless of whether that’s justified or not.
That’s the only reason I can think of to have not made a change at defensive coordinator at this point.
Can we get a turnover?
Todd Grantham’s defenses are supposed to create havoc. His defenses are supposed to create pressure. Most importantly, his defenses are supposed to create turnovers.
But through seven games, the Gators have only forced six turnovers (4 INT and 2 fumbles) and one of those fumbles was a dropped snap that had very little to do with the Gators.
That’s a huge issue because the Gators offense has had 33 TD drives and those drives have averaged 71 yards. Using expected points added (EPA), a drive starting 75-yards from the end zone (i.e. a touchback) historically produces around 2 points. Change that to mid-field and that goes up to 3 points. Get a turnover that puts you at the opponents’ 20-yard line, and that goes up to 4.5 points.
We saw that with LSU two weeks ago. The Gators threw two interceptions that were returned deep into Florida territory. LSU was able to convert both of those into TDs and it completely changed the complexion of the game.
The Gators haven’t had any of those kinds of turnovers thus far in 2021, but they’re going to need them to change the complexion of the game against Georgia.
Playing two QBs
I know Dan Mullen said he was going to play two QBs. I admire his loyalty to Emory Jones. I think very highly of Jones and how he’s handled the criticism this year, much of it because of Anthony Richardson’s play instead of his own.
But Mullen has to play Richardson this entire game.
That’s not really an opinion. Based on their play thus far, it’s a fact. Jones has a QB rating of 138.6 (average) and is averaging 5.8 yards per rush (high-level). Anthony Richardson – admittedly in a smaller sample size – has a QB rating of 174.1 (elite) and is averaging 12.4 yards per rush (super elite).
You’re not going to beat Georgia in this one – particularly with Florida’s defensive limitations – without elite QB play. You just aren’t. Whether Richardson can provide that or not is an open question, but that question seems to have been answered for Emory Jones.
If Mullen wants to play Jones, he needs to play him the whole game. There isn’t any margin for the clunkiness we’ve seen when the two QBs have subbed in for each other. Start the guy who you think is best and ride him the whole way through.
I think that’s AR. We’ll see what Dan Mullen thinks on Saturday.
Georgia juggernaut
This game shouldn’t even be close. Florida is 4-3, hasn’t put together a complete game this year, and is limping into this game with wounded pride and major questions at the most important position on the field.
On the other hand, Georgia seems to have two options at QB, both of whom have played well this year, a defense that has just eviscerated lesser opponents, and a talent differential over anyone they play, excluding Alabama.
When you look at the rosters, the talent deficit is really staggering. Florida ranks 7th in the 247Sports rankings for overall roster talent, with a roster that has 6 5-star recruits, 50 4-star recruits and 29 3-star recruits. Georgia ranks second overall with 19 5-stars, 47 4-stars and 19 3-stars. So basically, Georgia has the exact same talent profile as Florida except with an addition 13 5-star recruits, who typically go to the NFL at about a 60-percent clip.
That’s why if Georgia loses this game, it would be an incredible upset. They are the more talented team, and it’s not even close. They’ve gotten better QB play thus far in 2021, and it’s not even close. And you’d figure that by now they would know how to cover a wheel route.
But it took Dabo Swinney a while to figure out how to get over the hump. “Clemsoning” was a thing for a reason. If Florida can pull this one out, we might need to find a new verb to describe that kind of choke job.
Analytics/Results Disconnect
I wrote about this earlier in the week, but Florida’s analytics profile looks way better than its 4-3 record. That is actually the thing that is giving me the most hope heading into this game with Georgia.
Florida will be – by far – the best offense that the Bulldogs have faced. The Gators rank 6th in the F+ offensive rankings and 7th overall in the F+ and 5th in the SP+. It doesn’t feel that way because of all of the losing, but the close losses do suggest that should Florida get more consistent and put things together, they possess the ability to be a good team.
Georgia has absolutely dominated its opponents, only surrendering 46 points all year. But let’s not pretend that South Carolina, Vanderbilt and yes, even Clemson were really all that challenging. Each of these teams has proven to be sub-elite offensively, to put it kindly.
I’m not sure whether Florida’s defense will be able to stop the Bulldogs, but I do expect Florida to be able to put up some points. That’s going to be a different challenge for Georgia than they’ve faced thus far because it’s easy to take chances down the field when you know your defense will force a turnover or a three-and-out.
If Anthony Richardson can get Georgia on its heels early, there’s a chance to make Stetson Bennett or J.T. Daniels press. That maybe leads to some turnovers that gives Florida some short fields. And the once invincible defense may start taking chances it doesn’t need to if it can’t get off the field.
All of this is probably wishful thinking. But the fact remains that Florida is way better on a per-play basis than the 4-3 record indicates. Georgia’s analytics suggest it is the best team in the country, and by a wide margin. We’ll see which part of that math is right on Saturday.
Coach Orgeron Fired
I think LSU is going to regret letting Coach O go. It’s not that I think Orgeron is the equivalent of Nick Saban. It’s that I think you’re taking a big risk when you take a coach who’s won SEC and National Championships and decide to part ways for a couple of down years.
Florida has experienced this first-hand, with the Ron Zook, Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain years in the wilderness sandwiched between the Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer glory days and whatever this turns out to be with Dan Mullen.
It’s actually the same argument I’d make for keeping Mullen. At this point, the recruiting is what it is with Mullen. The risk is that if you keep letting him recruit at this level that he’s not going to get over the Georgia or Alabama humps.
But there’s risk with making a change too. It’s hard to find a Spurrier or a Meyer. More often, they turn into what’s happened at Florida State with Willie Taggart and Mike Norvell, or at Miami with what’s happened with Al Golden, Mark Richt and now Manny Diaz.
Just because you’ve won in the past doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to win in the future. 18-year old recruits don’t remember the championships you won in 2008. As those titles drift further into the past, you’re left selling people who don’t revere your product.
Maybe LSU finds a fantastic replacement for Orgeron. Maybe Florida could do the same for Mullen. You should always be looking for upgrades, just as the coaches at every school are always using job openings elsewhere as leverage for increased salaries.
But you’d better be really sure that the elite guy you want is out there when you decide to make a change. Otherwise, you might hire a guy who ends up on top of a shark.
Elite QBs and Championships
Just look at this list of QBs who have won recent championships and their NFL Draft position.
- 2020 – Mac Jones (15th overall pick)
- 2019 – Joe Burrow (1st overall pick)
- 2018 – Trevor Lawrence (1st overall pick)
- 2017 – Tua Tagovailoa (5th overall pick), Jalen Hurts (53rd overall pick)
- 2016 – Deshaun Watson (12th overall pick)
- 2015 – Jake Coker (undrafted)
- 2014 – J.T. Barrett (undrafted), Cardale Jones (139th overall pick)
- 2013 – Jameis Winston (1st overall pick)
- 2012 – A.J. McCarron (164th overall pick)
- 2011 – A.J. McCarron
- 2010 – Cam Newton (1st overall pick)
- 2009 – Greg McElroy (208th overall pick)
- 2008 – Tim Tebow (25th overall pick)
Notice anything about that list? Well, if your name isn’t Alabama or 2014 Ohio State, you’d better have a first round draft pick on your roster at QB. Even Nick Saban has realized that, as he has replaced the likes of Greg McElroy and A.J. McCarron with Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones.
We can talk about recruiting all that we want – and some of these programs undoubtedly recruit very well – but the reality is that it is almost a prerequisite to have a high-level pro prospect at the position to compete for championships. That doesn’t mean 5-star recruits (Jones, Hurts, Burrow and Watson weren’t). It means finding elite signal callers to make up for gaps in recruiting.
That’s why I – and just about every other Gators fan – is excited to see what Anthony Richardson can do. He may not be a first round draft pick, but he has the potential to be. And if he is, it puts Florida in a good position to win championships.
Cameron Newbauer
I’ve already written about the Cameron Newbauer situation a little bit. SI’s Zach Goodall came out with a few more details this week, but none of them really change the narrative.
Newbauer was clearly a bully and appears to have crossed the line into abusive behavior. The Florida administration knew about it, says it put safeguards in place, but the players insist no changes were actually made. Newbauer was then allowed to resign rather than being fired, and multiple women from the team allegedly tried to commit suicide.
The situation is altogether awful. Whether or not you agree with Newbauer’s techniques, the reality is that the adults in the room failed to stand up to him when he was called on the carpet for his behavior. And now those same adults are apparently in hiding, unable or unwilling to actually take questions about what happened, why it happened and what is being done to make sure it doesn’t happen again.
Maybe that’s because the lawyers have told them to be quiet. Maybe it’s because the administration thinks this will just blow over, because after all, people only care about football. Maybe that’s right.
We haven’t heard from Scott Stricklin on twitter since late September or since he selected the reporters who he wanted to direct quotes towards. We haven’t heard anything from President Fuchs addressing this either. At some point, the people in charge are going to have to take responsibility for at least communicating what happened.
Otherwise, it just looks like they’re covering something up. And it makes me wonder, what else is hiding in the shadows that hasn’t been reported yet.