By Will Miles
Covid-19 Hits Dan Mullen
As if 2020 couldn’t get wild enough, Dan Mullen has tested positive for Covid-19.
Along with Mullen, it appears that 31 members of the Florida team and/or staff has now tested positive, which explains why the games against LSU and Missouri were moved.
In the wake of Mullen’s comments regarding packing the Swamp, the media has been quick to discuss how Mullen is getting his comeuppance, but that’s misguided. Instead, we should just be thankful that Mullen, his staff and the players appear to be recovering nicely.
Lots of people seem to be treating this outbreak like it’s a moral blight on the Florida program, but forget that Clemson and LSU had outbreaks during the offseason, the Miami Marlins missed a big chunk of the MLB season because of one, and the Tennessee Titans just went through this as well.
The disease is highly transmissible. Anthropomorphizing it into something that is seeking retribution for prior bad acts doesn’t do anybody any good.
Covid-19 Hits Nick Saban?
If you want more evidence that the virus doesn’t seek out evil and strike it down, look no further than Alabama head coach Nick Saban.
Saban tested positive for the virus, but it turned out to be a false positive and after multiple negative results was able to coach against Georgia. I will have to admit that it made me cringe a little bit when Saban’s mask slipped down his face while he was berating a referee.
After a week of speculating whether it would count against his undefeated record against his own assistants if a Saban-less Tide lost to Georgia, we didn’t have to worry about that. Instead, we saw an Alabama team that wasn’t all that great on defense but was an absolute juggernaut on offense: exactly the way you’d expect a Saban team to look, right?
That’s perhaps the most impressive thing about the Saban era at Alabama. When Johnny Manziel torched his defense, he adjusted and brought in more athletic linebackers to counter the trend. When offenses started getting more explosive, he brought in offensive minds and players (particularly at QB) who could make his machine go.
It almost makes me wonder whether we’re seeing that now with Mac Jones and all of the deep shots that Alabama is taking. I don’t recall seeing Alabama run this many double-moves and targeting corners when they get one-on-one coverage nearly this much in the past.
Perhaps it’s just Alabama making use of the bevy of receivers that it has who excel at going deep. Or perhaps, they’ve recruited just that player for that kind of scheme.
Bye week?
Covid-19 has forced Florida to give up its bye week.
Yes, the Gators are off now and will have time to rest, but three games in isn’t exactly the time when the SEC schedule starts to wear on a team. Florida was also pretty healthy coming out of the Texas A&M game.
This also isn’t a typical bye week. Because of quarantine rules, football activities have been suspended. That means that while the players are likely meeting via Zoom and doing film studies, there isn’t any organized practice going on.
We saw what limited practice produced on the defensive end against Ole Miss. It wasn’t much better against South Carolina or Texas A&M. I’m pretty worried about what will happen when a defense with limited practice time – and potentially limited personnel due to the virus – suits up against Missouri.
Where Georgia stands
Georgia is now licking its wounds after the loss to Alabama on Saturday.
I actually was pretty impressed with the Bulldogs. Georgia was up 24-20 in the third quarter until Jones hit Waddle for a 90-yard TD. And the Bulldogs were actually driving effectively to at least tie the game (at the Alabama 25) when Stetson Bennett decided to try and fit a throw into a zone coverage that ended up tipping off his receiver’s hands and to an Alabama defender.
Lost in the fourth quarter takeover by Alabama is that Georgia was running the ball pretty effectively against Alabama (145 yards for the game). In fact, the first touchdown drive for the Bulldogs was almost completely on the ground. After seeing Texas A&M run the ball down Florida’s throat a couple of weeks ago in the second half, that worries me.
But the loss to Alabama means that even with the loss to A&M, Florida is in the exact same situation that it was coming into the season. Beat Georgia and they can still lose one more league game and still end up in front of the Bulldogs. With Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina and Missouri already at two league losses, the door is still open for the Gators.
Stetson Bennett (gives Florida a chance)
And that door is only open because Stetson Bennett is the quarterback at Georgia.
Against a mediocre (for them) Alabama defense, he completed less than 50% of his passes and only averaged 6.7 yards per throw. He averaged 7.3 against Arkansas, 8.6 against Auburn and 8.8 against Tennessee.
What did these games have in common? The opposing offenses weren’t really threatening the Georgia defense and so Bennett could be patient and take what the defense gave him.
Against Alabama, that wasn’t true. The interception I referenced above was him trying to fit a ball into a tight spot when he had a receiver WIDE open over the middle. Based on the coverage, that’s where he should have gone with the ball.
He had multiple throws tipped at the line of scrimmage where receivers were open and he couldn’t get it there. One of those tipped throws turned into an interception when Georgia had just gotten a turnover against Alabama and had a chance to really put some pressure on the Tide.
None of this is to say that Stetson Bennett isn’t a serviceable quarterback. But there’s a reason in my season preview that I expressed my fear of J.T. Daniels.
In 2017, Clemson had an elite defense and Kelly Bryant at QB. Bryant was okay in 2017 (QB Rating 131.7) but the Tigers only put up six points against Alabama in the playoff semifinal that year. In 2018, Bryant started the season behind center again. But a few games into the season, Dabo Swinney decided to replace Bryant with blue-chip recruit Trevor Lawrence.
Clemson scored 44 points against Alabama to win its second National Championship.
That doesn’t happen without Swinney making the switch. Let’s hope Kirby doesn’t figure that part out.
“Mid” year review
We’re only three games in, but in a season with only five games and with a break, I think it’s a good time to take a look at what is really working for Florida and what areas need some work.
Kyle Trask has been a revelation. Regardless of what Pro Football Focus thinks, when you’re leading the team ranked third in overall offense (based on yards per play) and averaging over nine yards per attempt, you’re doing something right.
Nay’Quan Wright has been an unexpected contributor, particularly against Texas A&M. I’ve gone from wondering why he’s out there to hoping he’ll be out there.
On the negative side of the ledger, the Gators are only averaging 2.7 yards per rush when running behind the left tackle and left guard. That’s abysmal and indicates that the issues getting push from last year are still there, but being masked by the running back’s abilities to break tackles.
On the defensive side of the ball, I have to admit that I have to do some stretching to come up with positives. But perhaps this is one. Kaiir Elam has six pass breakups and Jaydon Hill has three. You’d expect that from Elam but Hill being second on the team, considering he hasn’t been a starter for most of the year is a positive thing.
On the negative side of the ledger, Shawn Davis, Marco Wilson, Donovan Stiner, Rashad Torrence, Trey Dean, Brad Stewart, C.J. McWilliams and Chester Kimbrough have two total pass breakups. Considering that the defense has faced 116 pass attempts and is giving up 8.6 yards per attempt, not competing enough to have more break-ups is an issue.
One change to look for on the sideline
If you’re looking for improvement from the coaching staff, I think this one’s pretty obvious.
The Gators offense has come out humming in the first half of all three games. Against Ole Miss, that continued, as Florida scored 23 points. But against South Carolina and Texas A&M, that total fell to 14 and 17 points, respectively.
Now, some of that is due to the defense struggling to get off the field. But part of that is because the Gators have struggled to run the ball in the second half of each game and haven’t really leaned on it very much.
Against Ole Miss, the Gators ran the ball 14 times for 96 yards in the first half and 15 times for 100 yards in the second half. Against South Carolina, the Gators ran 14 times for 67 yards in the first half but only 10 times for 13 yards in the second half. Against Texas A&M, Mullen called 15 runs for 73 yards in the first half but only 9 runs for 17 yards in the second half.
It’s not surprising that the Gators have gone away from the run as they haven’t been very successful. But the Gators have also been ahead in those second halves, and so it is surprising that the number of runs have gone down so significantly.
Running the ball doesn’t just help you score. It also helps rest your defense, even if you’re not gaining a ton of yardage. Against A&M, Dante Lang was playing linebacker because the defense was gassed. One way the coaching staff can help the defense is by giving them time to rest.
One change to look for on defense
Make no mistake, the Florida defense has to improve. But let’s also be realistic, it’s clearly going to be the weak link on this team in 2020.
So what should we look for Grantham to change? Well, I already catalogued the pass break-ups, which I think portends Elam and Hill on the outside a lot more. But the place I want to focus is on the defensive line.
Jeremiah Moon has seven total tackles, zero tackles for loss and zero sacks. Yet he keeps being run out there at Buck in a pass rushing role. You just can’t have your primary pass rusher getting zero pressure and making zero plays behind the line of scrimmage. That’s doubly true when having Moon on the field forces Brenton Cox (3 TFL, 1.5 sacks) to defensive end and away from the Buck where he could be rushing the passer.
So I’d suggest that if you want to keep Moon on the field, move him inside. His quickness would help if the Gators decide to stunt and it would allow Zach Carter to stay at defensive end rather than bringing him on the inside.
Grantham’s defense is predicated on getting pressure. The secondary can’t hold up without it. Nobody jumps out as an elite pass rusher, but Moon does jump out as someone who hasn’t been able to get to the QB.
One change to look for on offense
I already put the running game on the coaches so that’s not the change I want to see on the offense. Actually, my area for improvement focuses on the player who has probably been most responsible for the Gators offensive renaissance: Kyle Trask.
https://youtu.be/iINdHmey7ls?t=1483
You can’t do this. Trask has Malik Davis wide open for a touchdown, or at least an opportunity for one. Instead, he whirls and throws off-balance back across his body and the field towards Kyle Pitts.
Pitts is awesome, but this throw is stupid and Trask knows it. Last season, Trask’s calling card was spreading the ball around. Pitts caught 54 balls, but Van Jefferson caught 49, Freddie Swain caught 38, Trevon Grimes caught 33 and Josh Hammond caught 27.
This season, Kadarius Toney has 18 catches, Kyle Pitts has 17 and the next closest are Malik Davis and Trevon Grimes (8). The rest of the offense has 24 catches total.
Whether it’s talent level or comfort level, Trask is locking on to his top-3 wide receivers more than last season. That is fine against Ole Miss, but you’ll pay for those sorts of tendencies against Georgia.
It’s nitpicking. Trask has been awesome this year. But every player has something they can work on to get better. This is one area I’d like to see improvement from Trask.
Missouri two weeks out
We have one more weekend without Gators football until the team gets back (hopefully) on the field against Missouri.
The Tigers torched LSU last week, putting up 45 points and outscoring the Bayou Bengals. That would seem to indicate doom for the Gators.
But a closer look indicates maybe not. Mizzou only scored 12 points against Tennessee and 19 against Alabama. Those are well below the averages that those teams have surrendered. Of course, those early games saw limited action for QB Connor Bazelak, who absolutely lit-up LSU.
But Mizzou has also given up an average of 38 points per game thus far. As much as we may complain about the Florida defense, that’s absolutely terrible. They made Jarrett Guarantano look pretty good. They made Myles Brennan look like an All-SEC caliber player.
So in some respects, Florida is looking in the mirror. A defense that can’t stop anybody and an offense that is relying heavily on its QB to make things go.
The question is…was Bazelak’s performance strictly LSU-induced or is he the budding star that Eli Drinkwitz needs to turn Mizzou into a contender?
I have my opinions, but that’s the fun of College Football. We won’t find out until they finally kick-off on Halloween.