Greetings, friends! I’m writing this to you as the sting of the loss to South Carolina is fresh. That was a tough loss, and one that seems to completely derail all the momentum the Gators had following a four-game winning streak.
Oof.
Luckily, one of the great things about college basketball is that tough losses against lesser opponents are something you can bounce back from, unlike in football where a bad loss might kiss away your playoff dreams. Yes, this loss will hurt Florida’s resume, but it won’t be a dagger to their NCAA Tournament heart. Well, as long as they are able to improve from it.
Here are some thoughts I’m having regarding the orange and blue basketball team.
Lineup decisions matter–often greatly.
Mike White has always been someone pretty erratic with lineup decisions and in my opinion it has been one of the main contributing factors to the inconsistency of his teams.
Let’s take Wednesday’s game for example. Florida started with Tre Mann, Tyree Appleby, Noah Locke, Omar Payne, and Colin Castleton. That lineup has had a +17 net rating this season. Now, I know not all of you are familiar with advanced stats, but as you can imagine you want to have a positive number in this category. +17 is very, very good, and predictably, they did well against South Carolina as their net rating would suggest and they allowed the Gators to take a lead.
Now, if you watched the game you’ll know that the Gators allowed a crippling 10-3 run with only a few minutes left that was ultimately their demise–a hole they couldn’t dig back out of.
The lineup for that stretch was Tre Mann-Tyree Appleby-Noah Locke-Scottie Lewis-Colin Castleton.
That lineup? A -7 net rating on the season.
So, from a statistical standpoint, the flow of this game could have totally been predicted. The lineup that has played well this season continued to play well.
The lineup that hasn’t played well this season was predictably poor.
Of course, basketball isn’t played on a spreadsheet and there needs to be room for coaches to make decisions in the flow of a game. However, when those decisions have data that suggests something isn’t going to work and they predictably don’t, well…that’s a bad look.
Colin Castleton is the best shot blocker Florida has had since…
Colin Castleton was a bright spot against South Carolina finishing with 7 blocks, a number that should be absolutely crazy but has become totally believable since he has had multiple 5 block outings so far this season. He now has an 11% block rate, meaning one of every ten shots an opponent makes, Castleton blocks it.
This block rate, amongst Florida players all time…
…is first. Joakim Noah, in his second season, had a 10% block rate.
We’ll have to see exactly where Castleton ends the season from a block rate standpoint and there is a decent chance he falls below Joakim Noah. However, it should be worth noting that there were far more 2-point attempts back when Noah played, allowing for far more blocked shots than in 2021. With so many threes these days there simply aren’t as many shot blocking opportunities, something that makes Castleton’s rim protection numbers even more impressive.
This will definitely be something to track as the season goes on.
Florida’s shooting was destined to come back down to earth.
Leading up to Wednesday’s game the Gators were hitting 38% of their threes on the season, an incredible number.
Was there any chance they were going to hit that percentage consistently the rest of the season? No. Three-point shooting is something the ebbs and flows and is about as inconsistent a discipline there is in college basketball. Well, make that all basketball. Florida was destined to have a poor shooting night after so many good ones this season and it finally came against South Carolina. They hit only 7-25 threes (28%) and ultimately that was a big reason they lost the game.
Florida has gotten better this season at getting buckets inside after a few years in a row where they really struggled to get points in the paint but Wednesday showed that they are likely still a team that needs to hit shots to win. For them to lose against a bottom of the SEC South Carolina team due to hitting 28% of their threes is a bit concerning as while that’s not a good percentage by any means, it could definitely have been worse.
The Gators will need to find ways to put points on the board even when their shots aren’t falling or they could have some more rough nights.
Gorjok Gak is having a great season in his second college basketball life.
After four years in Gainesville, center Gorjok Gak decided to take his talents elsewhere as a graduate transfer. Ultimately, he ended up at California Baptist, a relatively new division-I team looking to establish themselves on the west coast.
So far, Gak has looked fantastic. He’s averaging 13 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 assists per game and in the past week had a 26 point game against Long Beach State and an 18 rebound game against Dixie State.
Some people are going to use this as a sleight towards Florida’s coaching staff or current state of the program, but that simply shouldn’t be the case. While Gak was at Florida he was riddled with injuries. His first serious injury happened before he set foot on campus as a freshman, and multiple injuries over the next few years left him damaged and out of shape after being unable to properly work out.
Seeing him now, you wouldn’t even recognize him. He’s noticeably thinner after being healthy and actually able to do cardio, and his now healthy body is moving in a way entirely unlike what he was doing at Florida. While with the Gators, for the brief moments he could get on the court, he had a patented style of running that was stiff and labored. Now, he’s actually moving like a high level athlete.
I share this as an uplifting story for a Gator that was looking like his basketball career could be over. He battled injuries for over 4 years, but now it looks like he is finally able to do what he loves. Was it unfortunate that over four seasons the Gators couldn’t get more than a few spot minutes here or there in low leverage situations? Certainly. But I’m happy for the young man that he’s able to enjoy basketball again, and maybe even play somewhere professionally next year.
Dontay Bassett also isn’t doing too bad.
He’s at Weber State, in the beautiful mountainous region of Utah. While he started the season with some injuries, he’s getting back into form and has been averaging 9 points and 5 rebounds per game.
Bassett was a warrior for the Gators who was almost always undersized and less athletic than whoever he was going against in the SEC but found ways to battle, often by doing things like taking charges instead of blocking shots and looking to make the extra pass instead of trying to finish on his own. He was one of the first players to commit to Mike White after he took the Florida job, a mid level three star recruit who was excited to play at a program he probably never thought he’d have an offer from until White took the job and had spots to fill.
Everyone who has ever interacted with Bassett knows he’s a tremendous young man who we continue to wish all the best towards.