By Eric Fawcett
Good morning, afternoon, or evening to you, whenever you get to this newsletter!
As always, it is an absolute pleasure to hit your inbox with a bit of Florida basketball thoughts this fine Thursday.
Boy, what a week this was since we last talked.
Here’s a few thoughts I had from it.
The Texas Southern loss truly was horrible.
Maybe this thought should have come with a trigger warning.
I’m not trying to keep piling on to this loss, but I don’t think every fan fully grasps just how horrendous of a loss this game was. Yes, Texas Southern was 0-7, but that doesn’t really tell the whole story since all their losses were on the road to good teams (well, I suppose they were on the road against a good team in Gainesville…) so they’re probably better than the number suggested, but still.
The NCAA just made the NET ratings available and according to those rankings, the loss to Texas Southern was a quadrant 4 loss. Or, the worst possible loss you can take.
In fact, in the history of the NET, no top 40 team has ever had a quad 4 loss. Now, I say top 40, because it’s the top 40 (ish) that usually make the NCAA Tournament picture as at-large bids. So, looking at the ratings again, an accurate statement would be that no at-large team has ever taken a quad 4 loss.
Does that mean the Gators won’t make the NCAA Tournament? No, no one loss can do that. However, talking to some of the best bracketologists in the business, many of them are saying this loss will be worth at LEAST one seed, with multiple saying it could likely cost two.
I should really try to move on from this loss, but it’s going to continue to stick out as an ugly wart on Florida’s NCAA Tournament resume.
Florida’s offense is busted.
If you read my stuff on Gator Country or if you follow me on Twitter you’ll know that I have been very critical of the half court offense Florida has been running recently, and we have seen them string together a number of poor offensive performances in a row.
I actually was high on what the Gators were doing offensively when they started the season, playing five out offense and running a few classic plays out of the alignment. It gave me hope for what they were going to do and how they were going to build on that foundation but since then… they just haven’t added anything.
This has made them very easy to guard, and Oklahoma and Texas Southern knew exactly how to get Florida out of their sets and frustrate them.
To give an overarching opinion of Florida’s offense without getting into the X’s and O’s weeds I’ll say this–they just don’t run enough actions that threaten the defense. When you’re watching the Gators look for this–when a player catches the ball, is he in a position to score or threaten the defense?
Oftentimes–no. They go through regular motions, but it’s dribble handoffs going towards halfcourt and cuts that even if they got passed the ball they wouldn’t be in a position to score.
Florida has been easy to guard–and that’s concerning.
Speaking of concerning–I’m scared of Florida’s three-point shooting.
I realise this particular newsletter has a bit of a negative tone…and for that I apologise! There will be brighter days ahead!
I try to be open about when I’m wrong, and this is an area where I think I was wrong.
Going into the season, I thought the Gators were going to be a really good three-point shooting team. Have they shown flashes of that? Yes. But, overall…they have not been great at shooting the long ball, and that’s something that hasn’t exactly helped their offense that has been struggling.
First of all, Tyree Appleby, who has been an excellent shooter throughout his career, is only hitting 32% of his threes.
Myreon Jones, a career 40% three-point shooter who started the season hot, is now down to 33%.
Phlandrous Fleming is at 25%, Brandon McKissic is at 30%, and CJ Felder is at 27%, more numbers that speak to Florida’s struggles.
Right now the Gators are shooting 28% as a team and are 282nd in the country in three-point percentage, and while they’re probably due for some positive regression in that area…we will have to see just how much.
I still think Kowacie Reeves will carve out a regular role.
Reeves finally got in for a good shift against North Florida and while he wasn’t able to knock down any shots he had some good moments on defense, something that will hopefully contribute to him getting on the floor more where his shot making ability will hopefully show out.
As we just talked about, the Gators struggle to shoot. Reeves was a tremendous shooter in high school and has beautiful form and I am a big believer that he’ll be able to knock down shots at a high level. So far he hasn’t been on the floor enough to get in a rhythm, but looking at how the Gators struggle from deep I think the Gators need to consider getting him more run.
Speaking of guys with shooting potential, Elijah Kennedy has been a great surprise.
Kennedy is someone that I actually thought might be destined for a redshirt but his quality play off the bench has gotten him a semi-regular shift. He also was unable to hit any outside shots against North Florida (he threw down a powerful dunk in transition, though) but he has shown this season his ability to hit shots and that’s something the Gators really need.
Kennedy has always had a reputation as a shooter but it’s been his defense that has pleasantly surprised me. Away from the ball he’s a confident help defender, and that’s something that makes him look like a much older player than his freshman label would suggest.
That’s all folks, see you next Thursday!