Oh boy, has doing this newsletter ever been a rollercoaster.
Coming off big wins or bad losses, it always seems like there is some extreme for me to write about and good golly has it ever made writing things interesting. But, in all fairness, it certainly has been fun!
Here are some thoughts I have following Florida’s weird week where they got embarrassed by Mississippi State and then gave out the embarrassment against Tennessee.
Florida’s win over the Volunteers was awesome, but there was a big element of luck to it.
I know some people are going to hate this point but I’m going to stand in the paint and give my honest opinion here.
Florida deserved tons of credit for the win, but there was still a big fluke element to this game.
There is an analytics tool that I really like called Shot Quality which tracks the expected points return on every shot a team takes or gives up. It gives an accurate indication of the quality of shots a team is getting, and therefore their realistic play quality, completely agnostic of if the shot went in or not.
Florida obviously blew out Tennessee, but from an expected shot value standpoint the game should have been a dead even draw.
That speaks to the fact Florida was making a lot of tough shots and the Volunteers were missing a lot of attempts they’d normally make. If this game was played 100 times, it’s entirely likely Florida doesn’t even come close to blowing Tennessee out the same way.
Of course, basketball isn’t played on a spreadsheet and there is a reason you play the games–to see which teams can make shots they normally don’t and which team chokes away attempts they should make.
I’m not trying to pour cold water on Florida’s big win, but it puts things into context.
Hey, let’s still give Florida full credit.
Tennessee was a team that entered the season as a Final Four pick by many people. In winning a lot of games so far this season, they haven’t done much to take away that belief.
Florida, down Scottie Lewis, Colin Castleton, and Keyontae Johnson, played them to a shot quality draw. That’s incredible. Of course, I pointed to that number to suggest this game should have been very close and not a Florida blow out, but that should inherently be an extremely impressive showing by the Gators to play Tennessee at full strength when Florida is missing so many valuable pieces.
The Volunteers were at 0.7 points per possession, which is the lowest they have ever been in the Rick Barnes era. Simply an incredible stat. The Gators played awesome, and got a super fun win. Let’s enjoy it.
Which reminds me–please don’t let any Mike White hate take away from enjoying big wins.
People who want the Gators to move on from Mike White have a fair argument, and frankly the game against Tennessee probably shouldn’t move the needle for anyone on either side of the debate.
However, even if you want Mike White gone, please enjoy these huge wins. They don’t have to do anything to change your opinion of him but you should still love to see Florida win. The Gators have a ton of likable personalities on their roster and they play hard. They deserve to have their efforts enjoyed–even if your mind is made up on the coach.
Scottie Lewis and Colin Castleton are still two of Florida’s best players.
Whenever a team loses a starter and go on to play well without him the discussions are always going to happen:
“Are those players really that good? I mean, the team played even better without them!”
In some cases, that is truly the case.
For Florida, I don’t think that is the scenario with Scottie Lewis and Colin Castleton.
Lewis is a limited offensive player who is prone to some low point games because of it, but he helps on the glass, occasionally makes a huge defensive play, and is a good enough shooter to punish defenses when they dare him to put it up.
Castleton is a threat to finish on the inside when he catches the ball where Omar Payne just isn’t right now. Castleton also moves his feet better on the perimeter, giving the Gators a bit more defensive versatility.
This game maybe showed us that those two don’t need to be leaned on as much as they have been, but I don’t think by any means the team is better without them.
Florida’s game Saturday against Georgia will be a huge one for the perception of this team.
The biggest criticism of Florida basketball over the last few years is their inconsistency and the fact that it doesn’t seem they have been able to string together consecutive efforts.
The Gators just had arguably the biggest win in the Mike White era, and on Saturday play a Georgia team that quite frankly isn’t any good. If they were to lose to this Bulldogs team, or even just play poorly, the rumblings regarding Florida’s inconsistencies are only going to get worse.
And look, it’s not like beating up a bad team would particularly change anyone’s mind on anything, but these are the games Florida needs to handle if they want to be considered one of the SEC’s best. Losing to Georgia after beating Tennessee would be a huge blow to this team’s confidence and at this point, one that would kill them in the standings. This game should tell us a lot about this team.
That’s all for this week, talk again next Thursday!