By Eric Fawcett
Good morning Gator fans! Or good afternoon, good evening, or good-whatever time it is that you get to sorting through your inbox. It’s great to speak with you, though I’ve got to say, it feels strange that this will be the last time I speak with you in the regular season as after the Gators play the Wildcats on Saturday the next games will be in the SEC Tournament! The season has flown by, as is the case with all Florida sports’ seasons, it seems, but it’s March and that means it’s time for the most important basketball of the season. Here are five thoughts I have about Florida basketball as they enter the finale of the season.
1) I’m not entirely sure I love the zone defense, but from time to time it’s going to work.
When the Gators stormed back from more than 20 points down against Georgia earlier in the season it was largely due to their 3-2 zone defense confusing the Bulldogs and forcing turnovers, and that defense worked again on Wednesday night when the change allowed Florida to get back into the game and end up winning comfortably by 14. This has led many people to call for the Gators to play the zone more often, something I can understand given the fact that recently it has had some good results.
Personally, I have a bit of pause when it comes to the zone defense. Yes, there have been moments where it has worked magically, but it has also severely struggled at times too, especially on the larger scale.
For example, on the season the Gators are allowing 0.84 points per possession when playing man-to-man defense.
They are allowing 0.91 points per possession when playing zone.
To me, the numbers match the eye test. Florida has gotten picked apart in their zone on multiple occasions and even against Georgia when it worked, they got lucky at times where the Bulldogs had open looks, some that were almost too open, and they weren’t able to shoot in rhythm.
That points per possession metric is a fairly big drop-off from man to zone and it shows that maybe the Gators aren’t better off using the zone more. However, there are times, like Wednesday night, when the zone is going to throw off Florida’s opponent and work for stretches. Playing zone defense is like throwing an off speed pitch. Teams are more prepared for man defense which they see something like 90% of the time, so that defense is like a fast ball, and when you mix in a 3-2 zone that’s like a breaking ball. From there, you’ve just got to hope the opposing bench doesn’t use cameras from the outfield to relay information to the bench in time for them to bang on a trash can.
Would I advocate for the Gators to use the zone more often? I would not. However, mixing it in from time to time will likely yield some good results like it did against Georgia.
2) Coach White is really tightening his rotations.
Ques Glover and Omar Payne have been seeing a major dip in their minutes as of late and on Wednesday night Glover only saw the floor for 3 minutes and Payne didn’t get on the hardwood whatsoever. This shows White is starting to do something he hasn’t done much in his coaching career and that’s ride a tight rotation. Throughout his time at Florida Coach White has subbed early and often and has dipped into his bench more than the average coach. On Wednesday, he rode his starters hard and let them play through some adversity where he would normally sub, and the first sub of the game didn’t happen until 7 minutes of clock had passed, something extremely unusual for White who normally calls for a change at the 2 or 3 minute mark.
This is an interesting change and it’s something to watch on Saturday when the Gators play Kentucky. Obviously Georgia isn’t a team at the top of the SEC, yet White seemed to only trust his core rotation, so you’d think against Kentucky he’d also be shy to dip into his bench any more than he did against the Bulldogs.
Ques Glover’s drop in minutes has largely been due to his turnover problems and shot selection, both things you’d expect from a rookie guard that’s trying to find his way in the SEC. However, when it comes to Florida’s top-50 freshman big man….
3) I am really not sure why Omar Payne is in the doghouse.
Before I go any further with anything I have to start with this disclaimer—I have no inside information about, well, anything related to this story and this is all simply me theorizing. Okay, now that that’s out…
I am baffled at why Omar Payne isn’t playing. That might be strong wording, but whether it’s the rim protection he offers, the extra possessions he generates by attacking the offensive glass, or the expert-level screens he sets to free up his teammates, I think he adds so much to the team that he should be on the court.
That isn’t to say his game doesn’t have his flaws. He’s not someone that defenses are going to respect if the Gators dump it in to him for a post up opportunity, and he has struggled in pick and roll defense as of late and Florida’s end of the floor is where Coach White focuses on first.
White did call out Payne’s effort in practice a few weeks ago and there is a chance that is still playing a role in him not being on the floor. It’s also worth noting that Jason Jitoboh has really improved and is adding value when he’s on the court, and Dontay Bassett is finally healthy and bringing a unique element of toughness to the floor. The Gators went from having barely any centers over the last few seasons to having a bunch this year and that means they aren’t all going to play, but I’m a Payne believer who thinks the Gators are better when he’s playing a regular shift.
4. Florida could absolutely win the SEC Tournament.
Yes, I understand the Gators haven’t done well in the SEC Tournament in the last few years. In fact, they are 3-4 in the SEC Tournament under White, with a couple of early exits they probably aren’t particularly proud of. However, this year is going to be different due to the SEC being on the weaker side than normal.
Let me ask you this—does anyone particularly scare you in a matchup with Florida? I’m not saying I think Florida is going to run through the tournament and I’m not suggesting that I would favor them in every matchup, but I will say that I don’t think they should fear any team they’ll see. Let’s look at the top of the league, starting with Kentucky.
The Gators didn’t play their best basketball against the Wildcats when they first matched up, and they were still very much in the game. When the Wildcats come to Gainesville on Saturday, Florida is going to be a 4-point favorite. That suggests it would be an extremely close game on a neutral floor.
Then, there is LSU. We know the Gators can handle them.
Next, Auburn. You remember how that matchup went, right?
This definitely isn’t meant to be Florida fan arrogance, but there simply isn’t a matchup that Florida could go into where you think they don’t have a great chance to win. I’m not saying it will happen, but I am saying that the Gators will have a great shot at winning the SEC Tournament.
4) Florida’s staff made a great adjustment by drawing up some plays for Noah Locke.
Last week I lamented the fact that the Gators didn’t seem to have anything in their playbook to run that would get Noah Locke open for three-point looks, which led him to hunt some bad shots to get himself involved in the offense.
Fast forward to the game against Georgia and oh baby, they had some nice ones ready to go. First of all, they had a dandy of a flare screen set that used Locke as a false screener and when they reacted to the screen that Locke set, he then ran off a secondary screen from Keyontae Johnson that got him wide open for a jumper.
Splash.
They actually ran it twice, both times to perfection, so it was splash x2.
It was clear in the first half that shutting down Locke was one of the focuses of Georgia’s defense, and the fact they were able to run that flare screen to effectiveness twice was incredibly impressive. However, that wasn’t even the only play they ran for Locke. They also ran a variation of “floppy,” something you see all the time in the NBA. This started with Locke standing under the hoop, with two players setting screens on one side and one player on the other, and Locke has the decision to go either way. He ran on the single side, with the screen being set by Keyontae Johnson (whose screen was perfect, and I mean perfect, and that’s the stuff that you don’t see pointed out enough) and got wide open. Andrew Nembhard delivered him the ball in rhythm, and he drained it.
Seeing the coaching staff add these things to the playbook and also seeing the players execute it is huge. It was a fantastic adjustment and showed some ability to adapt, which is definitely a positive in my books.
Until next week,
Eric