Good morning Gator fans! I’m greeting you with a virtual fist bump instead of a virtual handshake because nowadays, you can’t be too careful, but despite a slightly less warm greeting I’m still just as happy to talk to you as ever!
As I write this it’s just under 12 hours to the Gators playing Georgia in their first game of the SEC Tournament, one that is going to be remembered for quite some time. As you have probably heard, the SEC Tournament is going to be played without fans in attendance and that is going to make for as unique of a postseason as we’ve ever seen. Considering the Gators haven’t played well in the SEC Tournament recently, maybe this strange adjustment will work out for them, we’ll just have to see.
Entering what’s going to be a big week in the history of college basketball, here are my five thoughts.
1) What impact will playing in front of no fans have? Who knows, but I have some thoughts…
There really aren’t any basketball events in history to look back on that were played without fans in attendance, at least major events like the SEC Tournament. I once watched a G League game on NBA TV that was played without fans, it was back in the early days of the league where some teams played in practice gyms without fans, but a team had just moved to the New Jersey arena and they played in a big arena without selling tickets. It was predictably weird, and I vividly remember one play that was extremely comical. The ball was thrown out of bounds due to a miscommunication between two players, and the ball bounced 15 rows deep and stuck between two rows. With no fans there, it took a good minute for a staff member to walk up the stairs, walk down the row, and retrieve the ball.
I’m sure there won’t be any similar plays to that at the SEC Tournament, but I’m interested to see how the production of the game will go. Will they play music during play like the NBA does? That would be one way to keep energy up, but I’m not sure they’d start doing that in postseason play. But would that be weirder than silence?
Communication hasn’t always been a strength of the Gators and a quiet arena might help their ability to get points across during play. Well, that, or their communication problems are going to be that much more noticeable when you can hear a pin drop. Once again, I really just don’t know as there are no examples in history to really go back and look at.
Florida has had a few triumphant comebacks this season and in a couple cases it has been on their home floor where they could feed off the crowd’s energy. Will they be able to have the same gumption when they only have the bench to hype them up? We’ll have to see.
2) This pains me to say this, but the NCAA Tournament very well could be cancelled.
This would be absolutely heartbreaking. My fingers ache just typing this out. But I think the Big Dance is going to be cancelled.
As I write this, the NBA has just suspended their season indefinitely. A source within the NHL told me they will likely follow suit. The NCAA already announced fans won’t be at NCAA Tournament games, and once you’re at that point it’s just not a stretch to think they’ll scrap the whole thing.
That would be devastating for so many reasons. Besides all of us fans who love it, there are arena staff and the staff at businesses surrounding the NCAA Tournament that will be missing out on hours and revenue, and my heart breaks for the players who won’t get their chance to play in the Tournament.
I have a friend who plays for Harvard. As you may have heard, the Ivy League decided to scrap their conference tournament and declare Yale, the regular season champs, the team who gets the auto bid. Harvard swept them in the regular season and would have loved to see them in the conference tournament, but won’t get the chance, and that means their seniors as well as the other seniors on Ivy League teams had their season end in crushing fashion. Most players, in any sport, in any league, know when they are potentially playing in their final career game. With some of these Ivy League seniors, they played in their last game and didn’t even know it until days later when the league decided they were scrapping their postseason, and that could be the case for other players if the NCAA Tournament is cancelled.
I have to say, in the broad view of a pandemic, sport can’t be considered a priority, even if college basketball is something I center my life around. Even though I can understand why it would be reasonable for the NCAA Tournament to be cancelled, it doesn’t mean it wouldn’t absolutely suck and I wouldn’t mourn.
3) Omar Payne should start for the Gators.
Okay, back to basketball, because as of at least right now the Gators still have a game to play on Thursday.
It’s still unknown if Kerry Blackshear Jr. is going to be able to play due to a wrist injury, but if I had to guess he’s not going to be able to play. Wrist injuries are terrible and usually they aren’t something that can be recovered from in only a couple of days. They are extremely nagging as they are tough to properly rest, and it’s hard for me to imagine based on seeing the fall he took that he’ll be good for Thursday.
There is a website I like to look to for basketball injury related knowledge called “In Street Clothes.” They track NBA player’s injuries, how long the average player is out due to a particular injury, and what their production is like when they return. When it comes to wrist injuries, long story short, they’re not something that players come back from quickly.
Anyways, if Blackshear isn’t able to play, I think Omar Payne is the best candidate to start. Recently it’s been Jason Jitoboh getting most of the backup center minutes behind Blackshear, and Dontay Bassett is the only upperclassmen out of the backup big group, but I think the best player after Blackshear has been Payne and I’d love for him to get the start.
Payne brings something the Gators desperately need and that’s rim protection. Florida has been soft at times in the paint defensively and Payne’s length and athleticism brings them a level of interior defense they don’t get from any other big. Offensively he doesn’t have the touch of Jitoboh or the understanding of the offense like Bassett, but I think what he does as a help defender makes up for it, and even if he’s not jiving with the offense particularly well you know he’s going to be active on the offensive glass and he is unquestionably the best offensive rebounder on the team. If Blackshear isn’t able to go it will be an interesting storyline right away to know who will start in his place, but my vote would go to Payne.
4) If Blackshear isn’t able to play, the Gators probably won’t be in as bad of shape as you might think.
This isn’t meant to disparage Blackshear’s effort as he has been a great Gator this year, but when he got hurt a lot of people thought the team would be hooped without him and I think that’s an overreaction.
Most of Blackshear’s contributions are on the offensive end, correct? That’s what you’d think when you watch the games, that’s for sure. Surprisingly, the on/off numbers don’t suggest he has as big of an impact as you might think.
During conference play the Gators have been at 1.06 points per possession when Blackshear is on the floor, but only slightly less at 1.01 points per possession with him on the bench. That drop off is miniscule and suggests the Gators will be able to stay afloat without him.
For some context, here are some other Gators’ offensive on/off numbers:
Keyontae Johnson
On: 1.08 PPP
Off: 0.96 PPP
Andrew Nembhard
On: 1.08 PPP
Off: 0.94 PPP
So really, a Blackshear injury wouldn’t be as devastating as a Johnson or Nembhard injury, at least when it comes to the offensive side of the basketball where Blackshear does most of his work. Where he would really be missed is when it comes to defensive rebounding, where the Gators haven’t been good this year and Blackshear has been their best defensive rebounder. That likely would be where he is most missed, but generally speaking I think the Gators would still be able to compete without him.
5) A loss in the opening round of the SEC Tournament would be flirting with disaster, but may in a roundabout way help them with a possible tournament run.
Right now the Gators are projected to be a 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament (using Bracket Matrix, a composite that compiles over 100 bracketologist’s work). Even if the Gators were to win their first game, and even a second game, they might not be able to get above an 8 seed, and obviously there isn’t a difference between the 8 and 9 seed so it doesn’t really matter if the Gators climb one spot from 8 to 9. And of course, if you win the 8 versus 9 game, you likely play the number one seed baring another UMBC over Virginia spectacular.
But, if the Gators were to lose their first game of the SEC Tournament, they could drop to 10th and play in the 7-10 game. By doing that, a win would likely get the 2 seed in the second round instead of the 1. With so much parity in college basketball, it’s also not like there is much difference between the 8 seeds and 7 seeds anyways, so it’s not like the Gators would fear any matchups with teams on the 7 line any more than teams on the 8 or 9 line.
But there is definitely a major difference between the projected four 1 seeds and the projected four 2 seeds. Here are those teams right now, once again according to Bracket Matrix.
1 Seeds:
Kansas
Gonzaga
Dayton
Baylor
2 Seeds:
San Diego State
Florida State
Villanova
Creighton
While I would be nauseous at the thought of playing Florida State again, a lot of the 2 seeds I would drastically rather see than any of the 1 seeds, so if the Gators did fall to 10 I don’t think it would really hurt them.
However, there are still a lot of automatic bids to be distributed and if there are bid stealers it could be extremely dangerous for the Gators to be on the projected 10 line as they could drop to the play in game, or even worse. It would be flirting with disaster if the Gators were to lose on Thursday but there is a chance it would end up working out for them.
That’s all folks, talk again soon!