Hello friends!
It’s been a couple weeks here but I’m back in your inbox to talk some Florida basketball!
Here are some thoughts I’m having about the Gators, most of which are centered around bracketology.
I don’t think the Gators are as close to the NCAA Tournament as some do.
Depending on your bracketologist you’ll hear that the Gators are in the first four out, or somewhere in that range.
Truthfully, I’m not sure how someone can justify putting them in that range.
Their quad-4 list is much worse than most of the other teams in the similar position, and most of them have more quad-1 wins than the Gators do (2).
Right now Florida is 56th in the NET rankings, the official ranking system of the NCAA. There is no official mark you need to get in order to make the field but in the short history of the rankings you need to be in the top 35 to feel good about getting selected as an at-large. The Gators aren’t even close to that number. I will also add that the teams below 35th in the NET to get an at-large largely did so because they had four or five quad-1 wins, essentially proving to the committee that they have the ability to win high level games.
Around the Gators in the NET right now are teams like Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, BYU, Washington State, and Belmont, all teams that aren’t in the projected field.
I’d love to come in hot with this newsletter and argue that the Gators should be in the field, but I can’t do that in good faith. There is no rational argument as to why the Gators should be in the first four out or that close to the bubble. In my eyes, and the eyes of the most accurate bracketologists, the Gators are more like eight to twelve spots out of the Tournament picture. They’ve got lots of work to do.
A loss to Georgia or Vanderbilt will kill any chance the Gators have of staying in at-large consideration.
ESPECIALLY Georgia. They are currently 211th in the NET, and one more bad loss would pretty much be the nail in the coffin for the Gators.
Vanderbilt has actually been playing good basketball of late and is up to 79th in the NET, and playing them on the road and losing in a vacuum wouldn’t be awful, but unfortunately the Gators have taken far too many not-great losses already and have lost the luxury of taking any more. These next two are must-win games for sure.
Florida may have to beat Kentucky to make the NCAA Tournament.
Like I mentioned earlier, Florida’s NET ranking is not at all favorable. If they’re going to make moves in that metric, wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt aren’t going to be enough. They need another stud win, and Kentucky at home gives them that opportunity. Would wins against Vanderbilt and Georgia and then one win in the SEC Tournament be enough to be in the Tournament picture? I would not be so sure. In my eyes they need another marquee win, and I’m starting to think that the Kentucky rematch might be a must-win as well.
Is that a ton of pressure on Florida? Yes. But again, this is the position they have put themselves in with the losses they have taken.
There is a chance that sportsmanship might have to be thrown out the window in the next two games.
Would the Gators be able to blow out one or both of Georgia and Vanderbilt? I’m unsure. However, if those games get to that point–the Gators shouldn’t take their foot off the gas.
Generally speaking, I am huge on sportsmanship and being respectful towards your opponent. However, in a NET ranking world, running up the score is highly incentivized. You see, it’s not just if you win or lose, but how your efficiency numbers were in those games. Here’s a real world example.
A couple of weeks ago Michigan was 47th in the NET, one spot ahead of Florida who was 48th. Both teams on bubble watch. Michigan went to play Purdue, one of the best teams in the country, and blew them out. They jumped from 47th to 30th on just that performance.
Then, Florida plays #2 Auburn. Both teams struggled and it was a sloppy game, but the Gators came out on top with an absolutely massive win. They entered that game 53rd in the NET, and after the huge win they improved to…
…49th. That’s because the NET doesn’t just look at who won and who lost, but the fashion in which they did it.
So, if Florida were to beat Georgia by a single field goal, they may even drop. They need to not only win, but win BIG. The difference between winning by 2 and winning by 12 could be multiple NET positions.
As a heads up, if the Gators do start running up the score and keeping starters in the game if it isn’t close…the NET ranking is likely on their mind.
That’s all for now, thanks for tuning in, and let’s hope for a couple Florida wins this week!
Go Gators!