Riding the Florida Gators Running Back Carousel

There is an unattributed quote about life that says, “Life is like a carousel, going up and down, up and down.” If a quote could better summarize the Florida Gators running back situation, I dare you to find it.

For the past five games, Jim McElwain and Doug Nussmeier have been the ride operator of a carousel of running backs that have four horses going round-and-round: Mark Thompson, Lamical Perine, Jordan Scarlett, and Jordan Cronkrite.

While all four running backs have done well in spurts – all with rushes longer than 15 yards at least once and all with at least one rushing touchdown – it has become something of a frustration for the Gators faithful that believes that they would be better served with one or two running backs getting the lion’s share of carries.

When asked why four running backs are splitting the carries, McElwain usually deflects. The closest fans got to an answer was from Tim Skipper a few weeks ago when he said, “Within the group, the guys know whoever gets hot they’re going to stay in there and keep going. So whoever gets hot is going to stay out there. If somebody breaks a run, they’re not going to come out. They’re going to stay right out there.” While that quote is not entirely true to how they have run their backs this season, it gives insight.

McElwain has said. “ We go through the first half, we’ve got touches for each one of them, then we kind of see how it flows from there.”

But let’s dive into some numbers, let’s look at the running back by committee and see how successful it truly is, and if the Gators may be better served if they paired it down.

So far this season, the Gators have split carries as follows:

But, let’s look deeper. We all know these statistics columns go deeper than simple yards per carry averages, because you can look those up on the NCAA website. Let’s look at some statistics that truly matter.

First, lets create the foundation. The Gators, as a whole, are averaging 160.80 yards per game on 188 total carries, but when you look at just running backs, the Gators are averaging 154.2 yards per game on 162 carries – 4.75 yards per carry. But that doesn’t tell the full story, does it? That seems great on paper, right?

The biggest frustration doesn’t seem to be simply production, it seems to be that running backs are getting rotated way too often and that they aren’t running the hot hand, like Skipper and McElwain have said.

On the season, the Gators have run the same running back at least two plays in a row 40 times this season. That is broken down as follows:

That adds up to 39, I know, Mark Herndon had two rushes to end the Kentucky game.

One question is, are the Gators running better when a player has at least two carries in a row, without getting rotated?

The answer is yes – emphatically.

Of the 40 series’ that the Gators have run where a quarterback has run at least two rushes with the same running back without being substituted for another horse (121 total rushes), the Gators have rushed for 643 yards – an average of 5.34 yards per carry. On the other series’ where running backs have not had sequential carries they have rushed 45 times for 181 yards – an average of 4.02 yards.

That amounts to a difference of 1.32 yards per carry when the same running back gets sequential carries. The numbers say, run your running backs sequentially.

(Now, for clarification, that does not mean they ran the ball two plays in a row, it simply means when the Gators have rushed the ball, it has been the same running back on sequential plays.)

During the season, the Gators have averaged…

Numbers again say, on average, much better. In the only game they averaged more on single carries, the Gators only had seven total rushes where carries were not sequential.

But, let’s look further. How does that break down by each running back?

You’ve gotta wonder, because two numbers stand out to me – Jordan Scarlett and Lamical Perine – if they are your two best backs.

But I know they are used differently, so maybe it’s not just yards per carry.

How many times have running backs gotten less than two yards?

Well, what about the “hot hand”, Dan?

The Gators almost never run a hot hand. The Gators have never used a hot hand in the third or fourth quarter, the closest would be when the Gators used Jordan Scarlett at the end of the Massachusetts game. Other than that, the Gators have never used a running back more than five times of multiple carries (North Texas was the only game with five). In the Kentucky game with the game out of hand, the Gators used Thompson, Perine, Scarlett, and Herndon to have multiple carries. Against North Texas, the Gators used Cronkrite, Scarlett, Thompson, and Perine to each have multiple carries in a row to end the game.

But what does this mean, Dan? Well, to me, the numbers show that Scarlett and Perine are your statistically best running backs. Also, the Gators run better collectively when each running back is given a chance to build momentum, rather than continuously shuffled.

Mark Twain said that there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. But this time, Mark, I say statistics show the carousel should be stopped and two horses should freely ride.