BATON ROUGE — In honor of what ESPN is calling “Gut-Check Weekend,” I have checked mine and determined that Florida is going to beat LSU tonight. So go ahead and bring in the butterfly nets, but I’ve got my reasons.
First off, history favors the Gators, who have won nine of the last 13 games played in so-called “Death Valley.” And by the way, how could there be two “Death Valley’s” anyway? (Three if you count the real one out West.)
Sticking with numbers, last week for the first time Urban Meyer ever:
(1)Lost twice to the same coach;
(2)Lost a home game at Florida;
(3)Lost a game in September.
I’m guessing here that Les Miles won’t make it two in a row.
So the numbers do favor my pick, although the Las Vegas odds do not, since the Tigers are a 7-point favorite.
Secondly, this game has been setting nice for Florida’s mental advantage. Had the Gators beaten Auburn, I don’t think they’d have won tonight.
While Miles and his players are busy asking everybody to kiss their national championship rings even before they’ve won them, the Gators have been digging themselves out of an emotional trough with legal issues.
Somebody ought to go ahead and mail the Tigers the trophy, because all the media seems to be holding an LSU coronation.
The AP poll moved the Tigers to No. 1. USA Today hailed the supremacy of Glenn Dorsey and Kirston Pittman’s defensive unit, which is no doubt now invincible. And Miles is being hailed as the next Bo Schembechler at Michigan, where he is the inside favorite to coach next year.
Goodness, how will those fragile little Gators possibly survive such an onslaught of greatness?
Well, with guile and guts, that’s how.
There will be an adjustment to the offense to include more playmakers and I’m guessing that Tim Tebow will throw some deep patterns on first downs. The good news is that with Bubba Caldwell and Riley Cooper back, the Gators have somebody to stretch the defense. And that opens it up underneath for Cornelius Ingram and Percy Harvin. And somehow, Brandon James has got to have some offensive touches.
Unwittingly, Tony Joiner may have provided the spark. It may have cost him his stripes as captain, but there seems to be a rallying spirit around Joiner, who most likely won’t start. Imagine the shot of adrenaline that will fire through the Gator defenders when No. 19 comes come running on the field.
The lines have been challenged on both sides of the ball to play better and I feel that they will.
That leaves kicking game and special teams, which are the responsibility of the head coach, who I’m sure expects improvement.
So before you bring out those butterfly nets, answer these questions:
—Did you think Oklahoma would beat Colorado last weekend?
—That Kansas State would beat Texas?
—Or that Notre Dame would beat 0-5?
Such is the uncertainty of college football, which makes it the great game that it is. College teams don’t just change from the beginning to the end of the season — they change from the beginning of the week to the end … and sometimes from the beginning to the game to the end.
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SHORT YARDAGE: It was purely happenstance, but the hotel restaurant where the Gator football team is staying is serving “Charbroiled Alligator Sausage” … Joiner was with the team Friday night, enjoying the spirit and camaraderie of his teammates … Urban Meyer’s sister, Gigi, and her family showed up and she feels good about the chances of the Gators, saying, “I’m not really superstitious, but I pick really good games to come to” — meaning Florida always wins when Gigi is along … Dan Mullen is still moving about a little gingerly from his appendectomy last week … My prediction: Florida 27, LSU 20.