A BCS nightmare could be waiting for the Florida Gators – and college football fans everywhere.
Following its 65-21 victory over No. 2 Texas Tech, Oklahoma made a huge jump in this week’s BCS rankings released shortly before 8 p.m. Sunday. The Sooners jumped from No. 5 in the BCS rankings to No. 3, ahead of the Florida Gators and just behind their Big 12 South Red River neighbors, the Texas Longhorns.
And depending on how things play out, it’s entirely possible that Urban Meyer’s Gators, who leaped ahead of Michigan in the final BCS rankings in 2006 to make the title game and then buried No. 1 Ohio State 41-14 to justify the jump, could be left on the outside looking in when the final BCS rankings come out on Dec. 7.
As it stands today, Alabama maintained its lead in this week’s BCS rankings, while Texas moved up to No. 2, just ahead of Oklahoma, which leaped over Florida.
Alabama was first in the Harris Interactive Poll, first in the USA Today coaches’ poll and first in the average of the six computers which rank the teams. That left coach Nick Saban’s team with a BCS average of .9872.
Texas, third a week ago, moved to second despite ranking fourth in the Harris poll and fourth in the USA Today coaches’ poll. That’s because the computers ranked Texas No. 2, allowing them to move up to second with a BCS average of .9209.
Oklahoma, fifth a week ago, moved to third with a BCS average of .9125. The Sooners were ranked third in the Harris Interactive poll but No. 2 in the USA Today coaches’ poll and the computer rankings averaged them third.
Florida, which was third in both the Harris and USA Today polls a week ago, found itself fourth despite moving up to No. 2 in the Harris poll. The Gators remained No. 3 in the USA Today poll but they were ranked only No. 6 by the computers. Their BCS average was .8755.
Despite its lopsided loss, Texas Tech fell from second to seventh in this week’s rankings. Ironically, the computers, which figure in strength of schedule, still ranked Texas Tech fourth when averaged, despite the Red Raiders playing a pair of Football Championship Subdivision teams Eastern Washington and Massachusetts to Florida’s one in The Citadel. The difference between No. 4 and No. 6 in the computer rankings—.110 – would have moved Florida from fourth to second.
Remember, computers, which take strength of schedule into mind, are programmed by humans, and obviously, the Big 12’s quartet of South Division monsters – Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State – plus North Division winner Missouri gives the conference the nod over the SEC.
Similarly, No. 5 USC finds itself eighth in the computer rankings with two regular-season games against mediocre foes – Saturday vs. Notre Dame and Dec. 6 against UCLA – remaining and a weak Pacific-10 Conference schedule.
In this crazy season, there are still some very big games which could throw monkey wrenches into the BCS rankings. It starts Thursday when Texas A&M travels to Austin to meet the Longhorns in their traditional Thanksgiving Day game.
Then on Saturday, it continues with Oklahoma visiting Oklahoma State, Texas Tech hosting Baylor, Auburn visiting Alabama for the Iron Bowl and Florida visiting its in-state nemesis, Florida State, while USC hosts Notre Dame.
If Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech all win, they will finish tied for the South Division lead and the team with the highest BCS average would be the South Division representative in the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 6 in Kansas City against North Division winner Missouri.
Depending how things play out in the voters’ minds that would mean either Texas or Oklahoma would go to Kansas City, and most likely that would be Texas because of its 45-35 win over Oklahoma earlier this season at the Cotton Bowl.
Oklahoma then stays home and watches this possible scenario unfold – Florida knocks off Alabama and Missouri knocks off Texas. In that case, the BCS National Championship Game matchup is easy – Oklahoma and Florida.
But what if Florida knocks off Alabama and Texas beats Missouri? Would Florida have enough to jump between the perceived Texas-Oklahoma juggernaut?
And what if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma? That would leave Texas and Texas Tech with identical records in the Big 12 and the tiebreaker is the team which won the game between the two. That would mean, off its 39-33 victory in Lubbock on Nov. 1, Texas Tech would go to the Big 12 Championship game to play Missouri, and leave Texas at home with a chance of going to the BCS National Championship Game without winning its conference championship and despite losing to a possible Big 12 champion in Texas Tech.
Would the voters be able to sleep at night if they voted for Texas over Texas Tech in that situation?
Would you?
Only the remaining games, the voters and the computers will provide the final BCS determination. One thing Florida coach Urban Meyer promised Sunday in his weekly teleconference with state media members was that he wasn’t into stomping for the votes his Gators might need to prevent the Texas-Oklahoma national-title matchup.
“I can’t stand that stuff,” Meyer said Sunday about stomping for votes. “You certainly won’t hear any politicking from this camp.”
Though Michigan coach Lloyd Carr believed that Meyer undercut his Wolverines’ chance of a rematch with the Buckeyes two years ago, that wasn’t the case. The voters came to the conclusion that Florida deserved a shot more than Michigan, which had its shot and lost 42-38 in Columbus.
That might again be the argument this time around, especially since Texas looked so dominating against Oklahoma on Oct. 11. Since then, the Sooners have been on a mission, winning their six games by lopsided margins – 45-31 over Kansas, 58-35 over Kansas State, 62-28 over Nebraska, 66-28 over Texas A&M and 65-21 over the Red Raiders.
Florida, too, has been rolling since its 31-30 loss to Mississippi on Sept. 27 in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field. The Gators battled back the following week with a 38-7 victory at Arkansas and followed with a 51-21 triumph over LSU under the lights in the Swamp on Oct. 11. After an off week, the Gators routed Kentucky, 63-5, blew away Georgia in Jacksonville 49-10, won convincingly at Vanderbilt 42-14 and then route South Carolina 56-6 before blowing away The Citadel 70-19 on Saturday.
There is a solution. Maybe President-elect Barack Obama can mediate the mess. Of, course, Mr. Obama has the correct solution – a playoff.
Seems too logical. But then logic went out the window when the NCAA allowed the bowls and the big schools of the Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC, ACC, Big 12 and Big East to enact this tomfoolery.
All because of money.
THIS WEEK’S BCS RANKINGS
Team Ave. LW Har USA Comp AP
1. Alabama (11-0) .9872 1 1 1 1 1
2. Texas (10-1) .9209 3 4 4 2 4
3. Oklahoma (10-1) .9125 5 3 2 3 3
4. Florida (10-1) .8755 4 2 3 6 2
5. USC (9-1) .7974 6 5 5 8 5
Key: LW: Last week’s BCS ranking. Har: Harris Interactive Poll ranking this week. USA: USA Today coaches’ poll ranking this week. Comp: The average ranking of six computers used by the BCS. AP: The Associated Press media ranking this week (which does not factor into the BCS rankings).