We are just a few short weeks away from the Florida Gators third match-up against the Michigan Wolverines in as many calendar years – and for the first time, in maybe ever, the Gators feel at least some confidence in their ability to win the game.
Sure, Michigan at one point looked destined to make the College Football Playoff and at one point the Gators look destined to pick up their third straight loss, and fourth of the season, deep into the game against South Carolina. But in a post-2001 Robert Downey, Jr. type of comeback, the Gators beat South Carolina and are in the midst of their best 10 quarters of the season, while Michigan and their “vaunted” defense just had 62 points handed to them in their biggest game of the year and could be on the verge of a major emotional Peach Bowl Game letdown, a la, Auburn in 2017.
Florida will be lucky to catch Michigan without their full roster, as the Wolverines will be without their talented defensive tackle Rashan Gary who declared for the NFL Draft and could be without their All-American linebacker Devin Bush who is recovering from a leg injury and has not made a definitive statement yet on playing.
While Michigan is coming off a 23-point loss and the Gators are coming off of a 27-point victory, the game is very important to both teams and I expect both ready to perform, as recruiting and off-season momentum is vital to both programs.
Let’s look at how the teams’ match-up for their December 29th showdown in Atlanta. You will notice, it could be a game of inches that determines the final result.
- Michigan scores 18.2 points in the 1st half, while Florida scores just 13.7. It edges a bit closer as Michigan scores 18.7 points in the 2nd half, while Florida scores 16.1. The defensive statistics favor Michigan, as well, as they average just 8.9 allowed in the 1st half and 8.7 in the 2nd half to Florida’s 11.2 and 11.7, respectively.
- Florida averages 5.1 yards per carry, while Michigan averages 5.0 yards per carry. Florida’s defense averages allowing 4.2 yards per carry, Michigan averages just 3.4 per (but will be without the aforementioned Rashan Gary who had 3.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss on the season). However, Michigan has allowed 5.1 yards per carry average over the last three games, so that may be something to watch out for.
- One of the things Feleipe Franks did well this year, was not taking sacks – ranking 20th in the country in fewest sacks allowed per game and ranking 1st in fewest sacks allowed per game on “passing downs” – while Michigan ranks 13th in the country in sack percentage on defense. Florida ranks highly, as well, at 20th, while Michigan ranks 25th in fewest sacks allowed.
- Florida ranks 101st in the country in percentage of passing plays on offense, while Michigan ranks 113th. Contrarily, they rank 24th and 25th in rushing offense.
- Both Florida and Michigan average +0.6 turnover margin per game on the year.
- Michigan averages 67.0 yards per game in penalty yards, while Florida averages 70.0.
- Florida scores 78.95% of the time they enter the red zone and Michigan does 87.27% of the time in the red zone, while both allow opponents to score in the red zone often – Florida 92.59% of the time and Michigan 92.00% of the time.
- Whoever wins, will have to win third down – as Michigan ranks 4th on third-and-long and 13th on third-and-short on offense (according to SBNation’s Bill Connelly), while Florida ranks 33rd and 79th respectively on defense. The Gators, in their own right, are strong on 3rd down offensively, ranking 25th on 3rd-and-long and 2nd on 3rd-and-short, while Michigan ranks 7th and 51st
- Both teams start within two yards of each other when they get the ball on average (31.1 Florida, 33.0 Michigan) and their opponents start .3 yards within each other (Florida opponents, 25.9; Michigan opponents, 25.6).