Five list of five: Florida Gators vs. Florida State

Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles

Date: Saturday, November 26^th

Time: 8:00 PM

TV: ABC

Last Meeting: Last year Florida State beat the Gators 27-2 in Gainesville

Last Time Out:

• Florida beat LSU 16-10 to clinch the SEC East title
• Florida State won at Syracuse 45-14

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown:

• Head Coach: Jimbo Fisher (76-17 in his 7^th year as Florida State Head Coach)
• Conference: ACC Atlantic
• 2016 Overall Record: 8-3
• 2016 Conference Record: 5-3

Players to Watch:

• Junior Running Back Dalvin Cook

McElwain says Cook is the most explosive player in the country. On the season he has rushed for 1,467 yards 17 TD’s in addition he has career highs in receptions with 27 and 400 receiving yards.

• Senior Defensive End Demarcus Walker

Walker is the emotional leader for this team. He has proven his leadership on and off the field. He currently leads the ACC and is 2^nd in the nation with 13 sacks.

5 Things to know about Florida State:

1. Under Jimbo Fisher, Florida State is 15-1 versus FBS opponents from the state of Florida. The lone loss coming at home to Florida in 2012.
2. Florida State is the best in the nation in sacks per game at 3.73 but ranks 116^th in sacks allowed per game at 3.09.
3. Florida State holds the nation’s longest active streak of consecutive winning seasons with 40
4. Last week against Syracuse, Cook surpassed Warrick Dunn as the all-time leading rusher. He currently sits at 4,166 yards.
5. Twice in the series history Florida State has won 4 consecutive times versus Florida, 1977-1980 and 1987-1990.

5 Things to Pay Attention to:

1. Can Florida sustain their emotional edge
   Against LSU the Gators played with emotion and a physical edge we have not seen much of the season. Coming off of the biggest win of the season and arguably of McElwains short tenure, can the Gators turn around in a rivalry game and do it again. Everything this week suggest that they should, but as we know, college football is a week to week deal.
2. Francois health
   Over the course of the year Deondre Francois has been physically beat up. In multiple games this season he has left a game due to injury. The Gators will surely test his will again so how many hits can Francois take before his body gives in?
3. Youth not wasted
   Last week the youthful Gators came up really big on the road. Big plays from Cleveland, Reese, Joseph, Perine and others propelled Florida to the victory. Those young guys will need to show up big again for the Gators to walk away with a victory. The Gators injuries continue to mount up as the importance of games increase. These are valuable downs for these younglings as well as for the program.
4. Can Scarlett do it again
   After 6 consecutive games reaching the end zone, Scarlett has reached pay dirt in the last three. With that being said, Scarlett has increased his production. In 3 of the last 4 games he received 20+ carries averaging 111.7 YPG. When he reaches that mark the Gators are 3-0. Last week Scarlett was the star with Guice and Fournette on the same field. If he outshines Cook, the Gators will be playing for a lot come next weekend.
5. More Florida injuries
   How much more can this team endure and how long before it finally catches up to them. McElwain added Nick Washington to the injured list and now Martez Ivey’s availability is in question. In what will be a physical contest, does Florida have the depth to sustain for 60 minutes.

5 Numbers that Matter:

1. 327: Dalvin Cook rushing yards’ vs Florida
   Needless to say, Cook has been a thorn in the side for the Gators. This has been well before he donned the garnet and gold. In 2 games against Florida he has been able to find open space and take control of the game. He is the key to winning for both teams, if he has a big day, the Seminoles will most likely be victorious.
2. 1: Number of penalties on the road at LSU
   Up until Saturday, the Gators had not been the most discipline team when it comes to penalties. Going on the road to Death Valley and committing one penalty is a phenomenal job by this team. The limited mistakes go a long way to winning close games, and that type of game will be needed again this week against Florida State.
3. 80: Eddy Pineiro field goal percentage
   Since his arrival at Florida Pineiro has been golden. His ability to kick has changed the dynamic of this team. The staff’s confidence in him allows them to manage the game around a strong defense. He will need to be clutch again for the Gators to pull off the upset.
4. 23: David Reese Tackles in 2 starts
   Since taking over for the injured Jarrad Davis, Reese has blossomed into one the best young linebackers in the SEC. Last week he stepped up to the challenge of facing the LSU rushing attack and this week it gets no easier against the Seminoles. He will have to be on point again to slow down the electric Dalvin Cook
5. 2:4: Florida Touchdowns to Turnovers since 2013 vs Florida State
   During the Seminoles current winning streak their defense has dominated the Florida offense. The Gators have managed 2 touchdowns and 4 turnovers. If the Florida offense cannot produce touchdowns and protect the football, there is zero chance they win this game.

5 Keys to Victory:

1. Maintain Intensity
   After an emotional win last week, Florida will need to bring that same fire to win in Tallahassee. Any let down emotionally and the Gators will have hard time coming out with a win. It is a rivalry game and the emotions will be high, but can they sustain that for 60 minutes on the road.
2. Contain Dalvin Cook
   This is a no brainer. Cook has a gear that is matched by few running backs in the country. Going against Cook, the Florida defense has to wrap up and do their best to corral him and keep him out of the open field as much as possible. Expect to see a lot of Cook in the passing game as well. Florida has been susceptible to the screen pass and the Seminoles will use Cook in the passing game to help slow the Florida rush
3. Appleby has to continue game management
   The addition of Appleby may have saved the Florida season. He has not been great, but has done enough in relief to get this team to Atlanta. This will be Austin’s 4^th road start with a 2-1 record. On the road he is completing 58% of his passes with a 4 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio. Maintaining that will be tough in Tallahassee, but games in Knoxville and Baton Rouge have given him good experience.
4. Pressure Francois
   I am not sure there is a quarterback in the nation that has taken the pounding redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has. Unfortunately for him, this will be the toughest defense he has faced all season. Expect the Gators to put him under extreme pressure to hopefully force him into mistakes.
5. Endure the flurry
   Come Saturday night whether early or late, there is going to be a moment that challenges the mettle of this Florida team. The crowd will be electric and the Dalvin Cook is a play away from changing the scoreboard. Florida may have to endure one, two or more of these moments to walk away victorious. There will be a lot of young players on the field that will be challenged to consistently respond to adversity.

5 Predictions for Saturday:

1. Scarlett notches another 20 carries
   The Florida offense has not been overly explosive, but they have managed to consistently get first downs. Lately that has been because of Scarlett’s emergence as the number one back. He consistently breaks tackles and gains positive yards. Once again the Gators will lean on him to take control of the game in the 2^nd
2. Cook is good but not great
   As already stated, Dalvin Cook is one if not the most explosive player in the country. The Gators may not be able to completely hold him, but not letting him dominate the game may be the recipe. The Gators boast one of the best run defenses in the country and a solid effort will help them slow down Cook.
3. Both Quarterbacks will spend a lot of time on the ground
   It’s not secret that these two defenses can get after the quarterback. Florida State has struggled to keep Francois upright and healthy. Florida will be one of the toughest challenges for the Florida State offensive line this season. On the other side Florida can get after the quarterback and although the Gators have been good preventing sacks, teams have been able to generate pressure at time. Expect both teams to dial up pressure to force some turnovers.
4. Antonio Callaway shows up in a big way
   As the season has worn on what was expected of Callaway has not come into fruition. That could be for many reasons, but he is due for a big moment. This weekend he will finally find some space and make an impact play that opens the offense for the Gators.
5. Demarcus Walker records 2 sacks
   Demarcus Walker has shown the ability to be a one man wrecking crew for an offense. Saturday night he will show once again why he is one of the best in the nation. The Gators offensive line situation is not ideal due to injury and slowing down Walker will be a major task.

Final Prediction:

Since the arrival of Steve Spurrier this rivalry has been one of the best in the country. Often one of the teams competing has had national title hopes on the line. It is intense from the first to the last minute and this year will be no different.

Florida State will have a strong start fueled by the atmosphere and the moment, then eventually the Gators will settle in and this game will turn into a vintage rivalry slugfest. Austin Appleby will play another solid game and in the 2^nd half Scarlett and Perine will gain control of the game. The Florida defense will start shaky, but settle in and allow the Florida running game to be effective and wear on the Seminole defense.

Francois will be under pressure for much of the game but will play a strong game with much of the focus on Dalvin Cook. This game will come down to the final minutes but at the end of the day the Gators will dig deep and as they did last week and walk out of Tallahassee as victors for the first time since 2012.

Florida 20 Florida State 17