Five list of five: Florida Gators vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Date: Saturday, December 3^rd

Time: 4:00 PM

TV: CBS

Last Meeting: Last year Alabama defeated the Gators 29-15 in the SEC Championship

Last Time Out:

• Florida lost on the road to Florida State 31-13
• Alabama beat Auburn 30-12

Alabama Crimson Tide Breakdown:

• Head Coach: Nick Saban 117-18 overall (10th year at Alabama) 208-60 (21st Year)
• Conference: SEC West
• 2016 Overall Record: 12-0
• 2016 Conference Record: 8-0

Players to Watch:

• Freshman Quarterback Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts has been phenomenal in his freshman year. He is nearing a 2,500-yard passing and 900-yard rushing season. He has also accounted for 33 touchdowns. Hurts has a chance to receive an invite to New York as a Heisman Trophy finalist with another big game.

• Senior Defensive Tackle Jonathan Allen

Jonathan Allen is not only the leader of this defense, but he is an athletic and dominant force on the line. Allen has racked up 11.5 tackles for loss, 7 sacks and an interception return for the touchdown.

5 Things to know about Alabama:

1. During the month of November, the Crimson Tide did not surrender a touchdown.
2. Since Nick Saban has taken over at Alabama he 5-1 vs Florida outscoring the Gators by an average of 32-15.
3. Alabama owns the longest winning streak in the FBS, having won 24 consecutive games.
4. With a win, the Alabama senior class will tie the NCAA record of 50 wins for a senior class. They are currently 49-5.
5. The Crimson Tide have won 14 consecutive games against ranked opponents. A win Saturday will tie Oklahoma’s streak from 1973-1975 for 2^nd all-time and will be 1 shy of USC’s streak of 16 from 2002-2005.

5 Things to Pay Attention to:

1. Play calling on first down
   If Florida is going to have any success on offense, they will need to find success on 1^st If they thought life was hard against Florida State, Alabama ranks 6^th in the nation in 3^rd down conversion percentage. It will be interesting to see how aggressive the Florida offense is on 1^st down to get in more than manageable 3^rd down situations.
2. Tabor and Wilson vs Ridley and Stewart
   Tabor and Wilson have played extremely well this year and have been one of the best tandems in the entire country. They will be facing their biggest challenge this week against the explosive Alabama duo. Last year Ridley and Stewart combine for 12 catches, 166 yards, and a touchdown. Tabor and Wilson’s discipline will be challenged because of the athletic ability of Jalen Hurts.
3. Time of Possession
   I can’t imagine that Alabama will duplicate the 43:29 of time of possession they did last year but if they do, the outcome could be worse. If the Gators are to fix that this year, they must convert 3^rd downs consistently. Last year they were 0 for 11 and after the performance against the Seminoles last week, this does not look promising.
4. Is Alabama immune to a letdown
   Most people in the nation believe the Crimson Tide are the clear #1 team in the country and regardless of the outcome Saturday, they will have a spot in the playoff. Will that thought to cause any distraction for this Alabama team and if it does can Florida take advantage. Nick Saban throughout the years has been great with keeping his teams motivated and focused.
5. In-Game Adjustments
   We have seen the Florida offense early in games do very well, but once the opponent has adjusted they have struggled with a counter. This can be for multiple reasons but Florida’s offense at times gets progressively worse as the game goes on. Saban is one of the best defensive minds in the game and this will obviously be the toughest challenge for McElwain and Nussmeier.

5 Numbers that Matter:

1. 0: Florida’s 3^rd down conversions against Florida State last week and Alabama last year
   This game for the Florida offense boils down to one factor. Can they convert 3^rd downs with consistency, sustain drives and keep the defense fresh. In Florida’s last 3 games they are only converting 22% on 3^rd On the season, they are converting 41% which ranks 60^th in the nation.
2. 2: Alabama opponent’s yards per carry
   Finding any traction against Alabama has been nearly impossible. The Tide are giving up 68.7 YPG, that number is 29.2 yards per game better than the next team Houston at 97.9. Florida has not been dominant in the run game, but have been effective. In 2015 Florida average 0.7 yards per carry against.
3. 4-4: The record between Florida and Alabama when playing in the SEC Championship
   Florida and Alabama are meeting for the 9^th time in Atlanta. They have been the faces of the SEC Championship game since it was created. Of the all the year’s these two have met, this year looks to be the biggest mismatch going in. Only twice (1992 and 1994) has this matchup in Atlanta been decided by less than double figures.
4. 19: Alabama turnovers
   Alabama’s 19 turnovers are tied for 76^th in the nation. If there is a chance the Gators can pull the upset, they will need to force them into mistakes. Florida’s defense has been opportunistic in this area and if they can create a couple turnovers that turn into easy scores, Florida will make this a game.
5. 16: Florida’s pass efficiency defense (3^rd in the Nation)
   Florida’s secondary will be the biggest challenge for hurts and this passing game. Over the last 3 games, Alabama has put in more work throwing the ball, but in Hurts last outing it was a mixed bag throwing 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Florida’s secondary has suffered through injuries, so playing at their normal level will be tough, but if they can play near that level it will give the Gators a chance.

5 Keys to Victory:

1. Alabama has a mistake-filled game
   Alabama is clearly the better team heading into Saturday afternoon, but that does not mean they are not beatable. If this Florida team is going to pull the shocker, they will need some help. Whether Alabama makes critical mistakes or Florida forces a few, that will probably be the only way the Gators can win this game.
2. Win field position
   Short fields for Florida and consistently making Alabama go the distance will put pressure on the Tide to move against a tough Florida defense. Townsend will probably see the field quite a bit and if he is his consistent self, he will be a major factor in this game, especially if it is close.
3. Create explosive plays
   Florida will likely not be able to sustain drives against the Crimson Tide defense, so creating explosive plays is at a premium. This goes for the defense and the special teams. Last year Florida got big special teams play from Callaway, that and more will be a key to keeping this game close and becoming a potential upset.
4. Bottle up Jalen Hurts
   Jalen Hurts is the key to stopping this Alabama offense. In the past, the Crimson Tide quarterback wasn’t asked to win many games. There is a lot put on Hurts without the elite running back. Hurts have improved as a passer to make his running threat that much more dangerous. Last week, Francois got loose for big plays and Hurts is more effective as a runner. The Gators must keep tabs on him to slow down the Alabama offense.
5. Protect the edges
   This is not just for the Florida offensive line, but for the defense as well. Ryan Anderson and Tim Williams are monsters coming off the edge and the best way to limit them is to stay out of 3^rd and long. As for the defense, keep Hurts and running game in a box is essential. Florida cannot allow Hurts, Damien Harris, Calvin Ridley and Ardarius Stewart in the open field.

5 Predictions for Saturday:

1. Florida surpasses the 15 yards rushing from last year
   Last year Florida did not have much of a chance to run the ball against Alabama. With no passing attack and a running game that did not thrive between the tackles, it made life very hard. Florida has not improved very much as a passing team and the running game is better running the ball downhill. Florida will not be effective running east or west against elite defenses. Their best bet will be utilizing some motion and getting defenders out of the box and going right at the defense with Scarlett, who has shown an ability for breaking tackles.
2. Hurts has 15+ carries and 70+ rushing yards
   The Crimson Tide have not had their traditional running style, but that has not changed their ability to run the ball. Alabama ranks 15^th in the nation rushing for 245.9 yards per game. Hurts have been the reason they can sustain a strong running attack. In a tight game against LSU, they leaned on Hurts to gain control, against a tough Florida defense, expect them to do the same in the 2^nd
3. Alabama DOES NOT get a defensive touchdown
   This season Alabama’s defense has had a knack for scoring touchdowns. They have 9 total touchdowns on defense which is tops in the nation. Despite Florida’s struggles offensively, they will not give a defensive score.
4. Hurts has multiple turnovers
   Jalen Hurts has been prone to turnovers at times. This is his biggest challenge of the year and Florida will force the young quarterback into a few mistakes. Hurts has not shown in kinks in mental armor but as far his play goes, he can be slowed down.
5. Florida gets in the end zone
   Yes, it is true, Alabama has not allowed a touchdown since 12:54 of the 3^rd quarter against Texas A&M. That spans 17 consecutive quarters. Somehow, someway that Gators will find the end zone against the Alabama team, maybe not the defense.

Final Prediction:

Florida and Alabama are meeting again for the 9^th time in Atlanta, which is very fitting for the 25^th anniversary. The spread going into the game is 24 but the game will be closer than that. Florida maybe the major underdog, but they are still a prideful football team. The Gators will respond to the moment early and play hard looking to rebound from last week’s lost.

The Florida defense will once again play a tough game that keeps the game within reach for most the game, but the Alabama defense will be too much to handle. Expect McElwain and Nussmeier to come up with some plays to get a score or two but it will not be enough. Jalen Hurts will show why he has been so good and against the Florida defense, he will have freshman moments. This game will still be close entering the 4^th quarter but the inability of the Florida offense to move the ball and a couple scores by Alabama puts the game out of reach.

Alabama 30 Florida 10