We are just a few days away from the end of the Florida Gators season and once again it ends in Tampa, Fla. against the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Trying to end their season differently than last year, which included a loss to FSU, Alabama in the SEC Championship, and a Big 10 foe (Michigan); the Gators sit on losses against FSU and Alabama in the SEC Championship, and face another Big 10 foe.
Looking at the Iowa Hawkeyes, the Gators may feel like they match-up better this year than the Wolverines last, but with a similarly strong rushing attack and stout defense, the Gators cannot tread too lightly.
So let’s take a look at a few areas the Gators must win, in order for them to secure the victory.
And before we move forward, I am sure you are asking yourself, “Self, how does Iowa look on the field?” Well, you can read more here.
Win Field Position On Both Sides of the Ball
Iowa currently ranks 14th in the country on offense (32.8 yard line) and 6th in the country (26 yard line) on field position, among the best combined averages in the country, while the Gators rank 65th (29.6 yard line) on offense and 38th (28 yard line) on defense.
Both offenses are among the worst in the country, so each yard counts (12 yards per game separate the two teams). The Gators must limit Iowa’s big play ability and keep them on their side of the field because Iowa ranks 25th in the country in points per trip inside the 40-yard line. Forcing Iowa to punt quickly after only a few yards will be very important, because the Gators will likely need an increased number of attempts to score enough points to win. Why? Because the Gators 116th in the country in points per trip inside the 40-yard line with only 3.86 points.
Coupled with a strong defense, the Gators will need another good performance by punter Johnny Townsend who is averaging 48.1 yards per punt while the Gators only allow 0.83 punt returns per game and will need to bounce back after allowing Alabama to have 117 return yards and a touchdown in the SEC Championship.
Limit Offensive Turnovers
Well, no duh, Dan.
But seriously. The Gators are only +1 on turnover margin on the season, while Iowa is +7. While Iowa has a distinct advantage, the biggest advantage is on offense where Iowa has only lost nine turnovers on the season, while the Gators have lost 20 (7 fumbles, 13 interceptions).
In the last two losses the Gators have had five offensive turnovers and on losses in the season the Gators have lost nine.
If they want to win, they can’t turnover the ball.
Stop Iowa in the Redzone
After stopping LSU on the goal line to secure a victory over the Tigers, the Gators have allowed teams to score 10 straight times in the redzone. While the Gators still rank 16th in the country in red zone defense, they have digressed from limiting teams to scoring only 65.4% of the time to now allowing points 75% of the time.
Iowa enters the game scoring 92.31% of the time (36-of-39) with touchdowns 72% of the time, and are 10 of their last 11 attempts.
If the Gators want to win, they will need to stop Iowa in the red zone, or even better, not allow them in.
Sack C.J. Beathard
On the season, Iowa ranks 85th in the country in sacks allowed (29) for 210 yards, while the Gators rank 35th in the country with 30 sacks for 201 yards. CJ Beathard has been sacked 9.4% of the times that he has dropped back for a pass and in order to keep the Hawkeyes one dimensional, they will need to bring pressure to sack him. In wins, the Gators average 3.25 sacks per game. In losses, they only average 1.33 sacks per game.
Limit Iowa Running backs at Second Level
Our friends over at SBNation have a stat that I love: highlight yards. Highlight yards are yards after the offensive line has “done it’s job” – usually after five yards. Currently, LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley are averaging 5.6 and 6.5 yards per “highlight” carry. That means when they are getting their five yards, they are usually going for much more than that. The Gators will have to rely their 36th ranked rush defense with strong support from linebackers, safeties, and cornerbacks to limit the two rushers to minimal highlight yards, which happen about 40% of rushes on the season.