When Florida landed Belmont transfer Will Richard before the 2022-23 season the coaching staff believed he was someone who could come in and contribute right away, but also someone who had huge long-term upside and could one day be a first team SEC contributor. In his first season with the Gators, things went according to plan. Richard slid into a starting role and became one of Florida’s most consistent players averaging 10.4 points and 4.5 rebounds. The next step was to see if he could make the kind of leap that Florida expected, going from solid starter to one of the best wings in the conference.
That goal…fell somewhat short. Now, it wasn’t a bad season by any means–in fact, it was quite a good season. Richard once again started every single game and was tasked with guarding the opponent’s best perimeter player. Ultimately he finished the season averaging 11.4 points and 3.9 rebounds–just about the same stats he had in his first year at Florida. While his defense was solid, it wasn’t enough to put him in the category of “elite,” and overall his second season in Gainesville looked a lot like his first. This was quality production–but it wasn’t the leap that both Richard and Florida’s staff expected in his growth curve at Florida, and now as a senior they’ll hope that jump is coming.
One of the disappointing parts of Richard’s junior season was the drop in three-point shooting he had from his sophomore season. In 2022-23 he shot 40% from three, but in 2023-24 that number dipped to just 35%. Given that Richard isn’t much of a driver (more on that later) the jumper is of utmost importance to his game and while 35% is adequate for most players, it’s not enough for him to be bringing positive offensive value. When you look deeper into the numbers, you can start to see the real story of Richard’s shooting. In transition he shot an excellent 39% from three, but in the half court where most basketball is played–he shot just 30%. When you look at the film you’ll see that most of the transition attempts are wide open as defenders lost him, but in the half court he was often facing a closeout. Good shooters can make shots when they’re wide open but often struggle when facing any kind of defensive pressure, and last year that was the case with Richard.
To get a better picture of Richard’s three-point shooting, let’s look back at his sophomore season when he shot 40%. He hit a remarkable 52% of his wide open threes which was a huge reason why his overall percentage was so good–but he didn’t seem to get those same opportunities as a sophomore. The answer why is rather clear–it’s because as a sophomore due to injury, Richard played most of his minutes as an undersized power forward. That meant he was often guarded by much bigger players who were tasked with helping in the paint, and that allowed Richard to get a lot of wide open jumpers. Fast forward to last season, and Richard played all of his minutes at the wing. That meant he was guarded by players who are used to playing against jump shooters and they were much tighter defensively which led to Richard having to take more guarded shots–leading to a lower percentage.
So, is Richard more like the 40% three-point shooter he was as a sophomore, or the 35% shooter he was as a junior? The numbers likely suggest he’s closer to the 35% shooter which is still a positive particularly at the volume of threes Richard takes–but he may not be the pure marksman Florida’s staff thought he might be.
A big reason why the three-point shot has been so important to Richard is that he hasn’t been someone able to drive the ball at a high level or finish at the rim with a high level of efficiency at this point in his career. Last season he shot 52% at the rim which is below the national average, and while he did increase his number of attempts at the rim largely due to his intelligent cutting, he still isn’t someone who is comfortable driving the ball at a high level. In terms of catching the ball on a reversal and attacking downhill he had just 19 attempts last season–and he converted just 32% of them.
If you’re looking for the biggest area that Richard could improve, it’s clearly his ability to drive and finish at the rim. While he has shown flashes of being a tremendous shooter he has only done that in one of three collegiate seasons, and if he’s going to take the next step as a player he’ll need to be someone who can put pressure on the defense by attacking a closeout and getting downhill. In fairness to Richard he played largely the power forward spot at Belmont before going to do the same at Florida in his first year, so last season was his first opportunity to really play like a guard full time.
If you’re looking for a positive sign regarding Richard’s ability to expand his guard skills, he did start the run a few pick and rolls last season and the results were excellent. Though it was a small sample size (just 47 pick and rolls) the numbers were excellent, with the Gators at 1.06 points per possession on these plays. Richard was methodical and economical with his decisions, waiting for the defense to move before making the proper responses and often making the right pass. Florida’s plan is likely not to make Richard run a lot of pick and rolls this season, but it’s still good to see an area of Richard’s game improve with more opportunity.
On the defensive end Richard will have some easier opportunities this year as last season he had to take the opponent’s best perimeter player every single game, but with the arrival of Alijah Martin there is someone to lock down smaller players in the backcourt. That means Richard should get to play against some bigger wings where he’ll have a speed advantage which should help him out as a help defender where he can use that speed and anticipation to help out his teammates with any breakdowns.
While Richard hasn’t seen a huge leap in production during his time at Florida, that shouldn’t take away from the fact he has been a strong starter for two years. Even if he doesn’t make a leap before his senior season you know exactly what you’re going to get from Richard, and that’s SEC starter level play. However, if the Gators are going to improve from a season where they lost in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament they’ll need players to take significant steps up this year and Will Richard is someone they’re looking to.