If you were to ask Todd Golden what this year’s Florida Gator team needs to improve on the most in order to have a successful season in 2023-24, he’d say shooting.
That will come as no surprise to Gator fans who have seen some rough shooting Florida teams over the last few seasons. Last year the Gators were 313th in the country in three-point percentage, which shockingly was an improvement from the year prior where they were 317th in Mike White’s last season.
Florida’s inability to hit threes has been a double edged sword as not only has it led to poor results on the court, but it has made a product that has been at times difficult to watch.
Making more threes is going to be at the top of Golden’s list as he has always been someone who believed in the value of taking a lot of them. In his three years at San Francisco the Dons ranked 37th, 2nd, and 48th in the country in three-point attempts–but that dropped like a stone last year where the Gators ranked 200th. Truthfully, that attempt rate could have easily been lower as teams were openly daring a number of Florida’s rotation players to shoot threes whenever they were on the floor–and the 200th ranking despite that speaks to how reluctant the poor shooting Gators were to let shots fly.
This brings up the question–will the Gators be a better shooting team in 2023-24?
It’s clear with the way the Gators approached their roster build in the offseason and with the transfer portal that addressing the shooting concerns were a major focus. Let’s start with some guys that are out the door (of course with many due to graduation).
Kyle Lofton shot 29% from three, and defenses went under every ball screen on him, considering it a success if they could tempt him into taking a pull up three.
Kowacie Reeves shot 26% from three, never harnessing the shooting touch that he was known for as a high school recruit.
Myreon Jones shot 32% from three, a number that he salvaged with a hot couple of weeks to end the season, but still one below the SEC average for his position.
Trey Bonham shot 33% from three, an adequate number, but not one that particularly moved the needle for a team that struggled so greatly.
Alex Fudge shot 23% from three and Colin Castleton shot 13% (2-15), not giving the Gators much floor spacing from the frontcourt positions.
Looking at who the Gators targeted, and ultimately landed in the transfer portal shooting was something that they were going to put a premium on. That starts with Walter Clayton from Iona who shot 43% from deep which was 51st in the country. Not only did he put up a great percentage, but he did it on over 5 attempts per game–solid volume that suggests his great percentage wasn’t at all a fluke. Clayton is someone who is at his best playing off the ball where he was one of the best catch and shoot players in the country, knocking down an astonishing 50% of his catch and shoot threes. This was on a sample size of 101 catch and shoot threes which is pretty large for the college game–suggesting that Clayton was one of the best, if not the best, catch and shoot players in the country last season.
Zyon Pullin was one of the top players available when he was still on the board and the Gators pursued him heavily for his ability to make shots off the bounce–though most of those came in the mid-range. He was able to hit 38% of his threes last year but it has to be noted that he took only 64 of them–even less than Kyle Lofton shot (73 attempts) and everyone here knows just how reluctant he was to shoot them. If you’re looking for a negative when it comes to Pullin’s shooting it’s easy to point to the lack of volume but if you’re looking for a positive–he was able to hit an excellent rate on the attempts he did take. Golden and his staff believe in Pullin’s ability to shoot the three and are openly pushing him to take a lot more this season, so look for that attempt number to be much higher.
Another player the Gators brought in that has some unrealized shooting potential is Yale transfer EJ Jarvis. He hit 41% of his threes last season–though on only 32 attempts, about 1 per game. Florida’s staff is a big believer in his shooting ability, though looking at some film it’s clear he has work to do with his footwork and realize. However, there is natural touch there, and the Gators would love to see him take a lot more threes, even if that three-point percentage dips from 41% down to something like 35% but with a lot more attempts.
Florida will also be looking for more three-point attempts from Seton Hall transfer Tyrese Samuel. When Samuel entered college he was known as a stretch big, and he shot 33% from three in his first two seasons on a couple of attempts per game. However, with a coaching change as an upperclassman his role shifted and he ended up being more of a purely interior player and he only took 14 attempts last season–hitting just 4 of them (29%). He has taken 131 attempts through his college career (hitting 30% of them overall), and Florida will be happy to have someone at center who is at least somewhat of a threat to let a three fly–something they didn’t really have last season.
Here is a realistic starting lineup the Gators could utilize next season and the three-point percentages they put up last season:
Zyon Pullin (38%)
Walter Clayton (43%)
Riley Kugel (38%)
EJ Jarvis (41%)
Tyrese Samuel (29%)
Suddenly, that looks like a much better shooting team than what the Gators had last season. Of course, with this hypothetical starting lineup, the first player off the bench would be Will Richard who was easily the Gators’ best shooter last year at 40% from deep. Just looking at the personnel, Florida should be a much improved three-point shooting team in 2023-24.
Here’s the thing–shooting isn’t just about talent and what players are taking the shots. Creating high-quality looks can be just as important as having players capable of making shots and that’s an area where the Gators need to greatly improve.
One area to look at when it comes to evaluating if a team is creating good quality shots is how many of their catch and shoot jumpers were considered guarded or unguarded (per Synergy Sports Tech). Obviously teams that have more unguarded shots are doing a much better job at creating quality shots.
Last season the average team took 57% of their catch and shoot attempts unguarded and 43% guarded, to give you a baseline of what most teams are capable of doing.
For the Gators, 57% of their shots were guarded and 43% were unguarded, the exact opposite of the national average.
This is a shocking number and one that shows just how much Florida’s offense struggled to create shots. Considering that opponents often dared the Gators to shoot open threes, it’s that much more surprising to see that the Gators took so many guarded jumpers.
These numbers regarding how many guarded shots the Gators took is important to consider when you think about Florida’s shooting last season. It was largely the individual players that took a lot of heat for not being able to make a shot–from both fans and Coach Golden, and while that plays a huge role, it wasn’t like Florida’s offense was doing a very good job of creating quality looks.
Here’s the thing–when Florida created open looks, they actually were a good shooting team. They were at 1.13 points per possession on unguarded catch and shoot attempts which was 66th in the country. They were particularly poor on guarded shots however, ranking a remarkable 353rd in the country–which ultimately was the story of their poor shooting season.
If the Gators were able to generate a league average amount of open shots they almost certainly wouldn’t have been 313th in the country in three-point percentage, in fact–they’d likely be around the national average, which would have completely changed Florida’s season.
Why do I bring this up? Because it’s important to note that even if the Gators have improved their individual shooting talent, they’re not going to be great, or even average, if there isn’t an offense that can create open shots. However, the pieces look to be in place for the Gators to drastically improve their shooting which makes the ceiling of their 2023-24 season much higher.