With the SEC Tournament all that remains between the Florida Gators and the NCAA Tournament, this is an excellent time to take a look at Bracketology to see where the Gators currently stand and what they need to do in order to reach the goals they aspire to.
First, let’s take a look at bracketology.
Before the Vanderbilt game the Gators were projected to be a 6 or 7-seed depending on the bracketologist, and unfortunately the loss essentially dropped them a seed line across the board. According to Bracket Matrix (a composite of 84 different brackets), the Gators are holding on to the lowest 7-seed. However, some of these brackets are yet to update since the Vanderbilt game–so it’s possible, if not probable that the Gators will drop to a consensus 8-seed.
One of the most accurate Bracketologists in the country over the last four years has been Lukas Harkins of Heat Check, and he diligently updates his bracket every day following the night’s results in order to provide an up-to-date and accurate projection.
He has the Gators as an 8-seed. In this bracket the Gators would be taking on Colorado State in the 8-9 game, with the winner likely taking on the 1-seed Purdue Boilermakers.
Safe to say–this is not where the Gators want to be. No one wants to be on a path to take on a number one seed, and getting up to a 7-seed or ideally a 6-seed would give Florida a much better chance at going on a run. Luckily they will have an opportunity to add to their resume on a neutral floor at the SEC Tournament in Nashville.
Here’s how the bracket shapes up. With the Gators finishing 6th in the regular season they will receive a first round bye, and will first take on the winner of Georgia and Missouri. Florida has already played each of these teams twice, with both games against Missouri being comfortable wins while both wins against Georgia were tight contests that almost ended in heartbreak. Georgia and Missouri played in the first game of the SEC season with the Bulldogs taking a 75-68 win, and since the Tigers went winless in league play–the Bulldogs will be the favorite.
Currently Georgia is 101st in the NET which is an extremely important number to note. Since all SEC Tournament games are at a neutral site, a matchup with Georgia would currently be a quad-3 game–but barely. If they get one spot up to 100th in the NET it would become a quad-2 game for the Gators, and while the distinction isn’t major it’s always preferable to add a quad-2 game than a quad-3.
Missouri is currently 156th in the NET so that matchup would be a clear quad-3.
If the Gators are hoping to boost their resume they will hope for a matchup with Georgia. Also, if the Gators were to play Georgia it would mean the Bulldogs beat Missouri and that means they would likely take a bit of a jump in the NET–hopefully making it a clear quad-2 game for the Gators. If the Gators are hoping to go on a run in the SEC Tournament and don’t care as much about resume wins each way then they could be hoping for a Missouri first round win considering the Gators played much better against the Tigers than the Bulldogs this season.
If Florida wins their opening game at the SEC Tournament they would take on Alabama who earned the double-bye for finishing third in the regular season. While Alabama’s resume isn’t particularly stellar and they have lost 3 of their last 5 games (with their most recent win being an overtime game where they barely got past a struggling Arkansas club) they are still strong in the metrics ranking 8th in the NET. This is a massive opportunity if the Gators got there as they could look to get a huge quad-1 over a team they have recently beat, and a team that appears to be in an absolute tailspin.
Whoever gets past the third round, whether Alabama or whoever they face, will take on either Kentucky, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M, with the rest of the league on the other side of the bracket.
Let’s get back to Florida’s NCAA Tournament resume. Before we talk specifics, it is paramount to remember that games don’t happen in vacuum, and at the same time Florida is playing games so is every other team in a similar range in the bracket. Because of that you can never be certain how wins or losses could move them–though we can make educated guesses. Here are the possible scenarios:
First scenario: Florida loses their opening game.
If this loss came to Georgia they’d probably stay as an 8-seed where they currently sit, though if the loss came to Missouri it’s possible they drop to a 9-seed. Fortunately that wouldn’t really matter as, obviously, the 8 and 9-seeds play each other, and it’s unlikely the Gators could drop any lower than a 9-seed.
Second scenario: Florida wins their opening game, loses to Alabama.
This likely isn’t much of a needle mover. A win over Georgia would be…something, but it’s not something that would jump them up a seed line. However, with everything moving around them a win could be enough to get up to the 7-line, and luckily a loss to Alabama wouldn’t hurt their resume at all.
Third scenario: Florida wins their first two games, loses in semi-final.
A win over Alabama would be massive as somehow the Crimson Tide remain high in the metrics and are offering their opponents a huge resume opportunity. A win over Alabama would be a seed-line bump from where the Gators currently are so they’d almost certainly be a 7-seed, with a chance that if everything breaks right they nibble at a 6-seed.
Fourth scenario: Florida wins their first three games, loses in the championship game.
Here’s where things get a bit harder to project as at this point a semi-final could be against Kentucky, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M. While jumping from a 8-seed to 7-seed with a big win is extremely possible, it becomes harder with every seed line. If the Gators did face and beat Kentucky it’s certainly possible for the Gators to get up to a 6-seed, but it’s probably more likely they’d be one of the highest two 7-seeds.
Fifth scenario: Florida wins the SEC Tournament.
With all these games being on a neutral site and a championship game almost certainly being against a top opponent the Gators would clearly be at least a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament, with a possibility to be a 5-seed. It’s also a good time to be reminded that the NCAA doesn’t factor in conference record or championship to their evaluations, so even with a SEC Tournament win the Gators wouldn’t necessarily be placed higher than, say, Tennessee or Kentucky.
Florida finds themselves in a position where there is a lot more to be gained at the SEC Tournament than lost which is exactly where they want to be. They’ll tip off on March 14th at approximately 9:30 ET on SEC Network, though the tip times at the SEC Tournament will always fluctuate based on the length of previous games.