Analytics are a massive part of the college game right now, whether in the way that teams schedule, fans and media decipher which teams are best, and perhaps most importantly–how the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee makes decisions. For that reason, it’s always interesting to see what the major predictive metrics show in the preseason, and as these tools continue to get better and better–so do their preseason predictions. Each year these preseason projections get closer and closer to predicting what will happen the upcoming year, which is only more reason to take note. Here are what the big players in the predictive metrics world are saying about the Florida Gators entering the 2025-26 season.
EvanMiya
Florida’s Preseason Projection: 4th
With accurate predictions and useful tools, EvanMiya has become a top predictive metric and one to keep a close eye on. EvanMiya has the Gators 4th, projected 8th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. You also might remember that EvanMiya has diligent transfer portal rankings, and in this category Florida also came in 4th. Another great thing about EvanMiya is that it has player rankings–and interestingly, Thomas Haugh comes in not only as Florida’s top projected player, but the 10th best player in the country.
Ahead of Florida in EvanMiya’s preseason rankings are Duke (3rd), Purdue (2nd), and Houston (1st).
T-Rank (BartTorvik)
Florida’s Preseason Projection: 5th
With Torvik being one of the first predictive tools to put out preseason rankings there is a chance you have already had your eyes on this, but Florida comes in strongly at 5th. In this projection, the Gators are 13th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency–another tool suggesting the Gators will be stronger on the defensive side of the floor. Of note from T-Rank is a tool that shows the percentage of minutes returning from the year prior. Florida is at just over 40%, with much of those coming, of course, from the frontcourt. T-Rank also has player projections, with Florida’s top player and highest scorer projected to be Boogie Fland.
Ahead of Florida in T-Rank’s preseason rankings are Purdue (4th), Michigan (3rd), Duke (2nd), and Houston (1st).
KenPom
Florida’s Preseason Projection: 2nd
Given that KenPom is the godfather of predictive metrics and his ratings carry the most weight in the eyes of the media (and likely the Selection Committee), you might be happy to see that this tool has the Gators the highest of the bunch at 2nd. Surprisingly, KenPom is also the only tool to suggest that the Gators will be better on the offensive side than the defensive side, projecting the Gators to be 3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency. KenPom also predicts the Gators to be 37th in the country in pace.
Since KenPom is the most known of the predictive metrics, let’s take this time to also see the rankings of some of the top teams on Florida’s schedule this year:
Kentucky (4th)
Connecticut (5th)
Duke (7th)
Tennessee (9th)
Arizona (15th)
As you can see, the Gators will be playing in a lot of marquee games this season.
Ahead of Florida in KenPom’s preseason rankings is, you guessed it, Houston at #1. If Florida were to make another deep NCAA Tournament run and compete for a Championship, it looks like a Houston rematch could very well be on the table.