Chemistry is something that is universally considered an important element of basketball, but it’s one that can be difficult to quantify. Due to that, for generations “chemistry” has been something evaluated by the eyes of coaches who gauge the aesthetics of what they see on the court to decide what groups of players look to be playing well off each other and which don’t.
In 2021, however, we have the power of lineup data to see how different combinations of players perform together on the court, and the information can be nothing short of fascinating.
For example, two years ago, lineup data gave a pretty good indication of why the Gators started SEC play so well, and why their subsequent nosedive was predicted based on the lineups they used (or in this case, didn’t use).
As a more recent, and important example, lineup data would have predicted why Florida would squander a double digit lead in the second half against Oral Roberts after subbing out Anthony Duruji and going to a lineup that had been unsuccessful previously in the season.
Lineup data can be an extremely powerful tool and it’s one that the top teams in the NBA, NCAA, and Europe are utilizing extensively.
We’re going to look at Florida’s most used lineups and see where they are helping and hurting the Gators.
A brief note before we get going:
We will largely be using the metric “net rating” to evaluate each lineup. Net rating is used by taking “offensive rating” (offensive points per possession multiplied by 100) and subtracting it by “defensive rating” (defensive points per possession multiplied by 100). It is not raw plus minus (points scored per points against) which is good for evaluating certain lineup situations, such as how a lineup performed in a one game sample, but isn’t great when you’re comparing lineups with varying sample sizes. As a rough rule, anything above 104 as an offensive rating is pretty good, and anything below 100 as a defensive rating is pretty good. For obvious reasons, a plus net rating is good, and a negative net rating is bad.
Let’s take a look at some lineups and see what interesting takeaways we can draw from the data.
Tyree Appleby
Brandon McKissic
Myreon Jones
Anthony Duruji
Colin Castleton
Offensive Rating: 120
Defensive Rating: 86
Net Rating: +34
This has been Florida’s most used lineup and for a good reason. They’ve had success both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, but their offensive effort is particularly impressive and for a very interesting reason–on a team that struggles to shoot the ball, this lineup has been really good from deep. They’re shooting 37.5% from three which is significantly higher than Florida’s team average of 31.2%, so if the Gators want to improve their overall long ball efficiency this is a lineup they should continue to go to.
The one area this lineup is really struggling is when it comes to perimeter defense where they are giving up a lot of drives. A whopping 64% of opponent’s shots against this lineup come at the rim on drives and while it surprisingly hasn’t hurt this lineup much defensively yet, it seems it is due for some negative regression based on that number of attempts at the rim.
Tyree Appleby
Myreon Jones
Phlandrous Fleming
Anthony Duruji
Colin Castleton
Offensive Rating: 127
Defensive Rating: 86
Net Rating: +41
This lineup appears to be…well, even better than the starters. The overall numbers are close, but this lineup that subtracts Brandon McKissic and adds Phlandrous Fleming is even better offensively, and just a little bit better defensively.
For one moment, however, remember that this is lineup data based on Florida’s entire season. As you know, the Gators have played a number of buy games against lesser opponents, and that can really muddy the waters when it comes to lineup data. Let’s take a look at these two lineups but only against Florida’s high major opponents so far this season.
Versus Florida State, California, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Maryland:
Tyree Appleby
Brandon McKissic
Myreon Jones
Anthony Duruji
Colin Castleton
Total Minutes Played: 29
Offensive Rating: 95
Defensive Rating: 101
Net Rating: -6
Tyree Appleby
Myreon Jones
Phlandrous Fleming
Anthony Duruji
Colin Castleton
Total Minutes Played: 35
Offensive Rating: 129
Defensive Rating: 98
Net Rating: +31
And, very quickly, we are seeing why lineup data is so important and why the decisions of who plays key minutes in key games are so dire.
It’s also important why intimate knowledge of how lineup data works is so valuable. Looking at overall season numbers, you’d think these two lineups are identical. But, when you look at these lineups against quality competition, you have seen one lineup has struggled and one lineup has succeeded.
So, which lineup has been better for the Gators? It appears fairly clear. Knowing this, when it comes to key minutes against quality opponents, it should be fairly clear who should be in the game.
Let’s take a look at a real world example. When Florida lost a close game to Oklahoma, it was largely because they started the game down 9-0 and then also had a slow start to the second half when they were trying to get back in the game.
The lineup that was on the floor for those key minutes?
Appleby
McKissic
Jones
Duruji
Castleton
That lineup had a plus/minus of -14 on the night.
Had they started the game (and second half) with:
Appleby
Jones
Fleming
Duruji
Castleton
…who happened to have a +5 plus/minus on the night, the game could have been very different.
This is a perfect example of why basketball chemistry is so important, as the change between just one player has had a gigantic impact so far this season for the Gators, and if they had changed their lineup just slightly against Oklahoma the outcome of the game could have been very different.
Let’s take a look at some more lineups.
McKissic
Jones
Fleming
Duruji
Castleton
Offensive Rating: 129
Defensive Rating: 96
Net Rating: +34
This lineup has a pretty net rating, but there could be a little bit of fools gold here as well. This lineup has done really well in Florida’s buy games, but against high-major opponents they have a -4 net rating.
Appleby
McKissic
Jones
Fleming
Duruji
Offensive Rating: 99
Defensive Rating: 95
Net Rating: +4
The small ball lineup is one that the Gators have only started to go to recently, and it has had some good results defensively but hasn’t yet caught fire on the other end. There could definitely be some matchups the rest of the way where the small ball lineup is effective, so the Gators should probably continue to get this group some run together and experiment with how they can score because the speed on the other end has given opposing teams some difficulties.
Tyree Appleby
Brandon McKissic
Myreon Jones
Anthony Duruji
Colin Castleton
Offensive Rating: 120
Defensive Rating: 86
Net Rating: +34
The three guard lineup definitely has potential, but it’s another one of Florida’s lineups with a bit of a fool’s gold feel as they have a -6 net rating in Florida’s high major games.
Appleby
Jones
Fleming
Felder
Castleton
Offensive Rating: 102
Defensive Rating: 68
Net Rating: +34
CJ Felder has been a monster on the defensive end, so it’s not surprising that having him out with the starters has made for a lineup that’s solid on that end.
Here’s another Fleming for McKissic switch, this time with the lineup featuring Felder at power forward.
Appleby
McKissic
Jones
Felder
Castleton
Offensive Rating: 76
Defensive Rating: 90
Net Rating: -14
This is the worst lineup the Gators have played somewhat regularly, and it’s only one player swapped (McKissic in place of Fleming) from a lineup that is really successful. As we continue to see, basketball chemistry is very subtle, and one change can make a world of difference.
College basketball is loaded with talent both on the court and on the sideline and teams need every advantage they can get to win on the margins and make sure they’re getting the most out of their players. Lineup data can inform a lot of those decisions, and as you can see from the data presented, sleight chances can make a world of difference in on-court performance. And, as we have already seen in this short season, the wrong lineup choices can have consequences.
It has been very clear which lineup has been the best for Florida against high major competition and which one has been getting a lot of minutes but with far worse results. For the rest of the season it’s all high major opponents, so now is the time for the Gators to lean on what has been successful and try to win the key minutes of the game using that lineup.
Now that you know which of Florida’s lineups have been effective and which haven’t, watch for which groups appear to play well and which seem to struggle in SEC play.
All lineup data is per my partners at Pivot Analysis.