When Florida lost to Kentucky on Saturday it wasn’t just an 18-point lead they lost as Kerry Blackshear Jr.’s services were also ripped away when he fell awkwardly, landing on his hand and bending it backwards resulting in a wrist sprain. Quite frankly, at the time it looked like the injury could be worse than a sprain and when news dropped that it wasn’t a break there was a sigh of relief around the Florida basketball program. However, they’re not out of the woods yet. According to the website “In Street Clothes” (a site that studies and analyzes NBA injuries in terms of their time in recovery as well as player production when they return from injury) even a mild wrist strain can take weeks to recover from, and that means Blackshear might not be available at all for the SEC Tournament, and maybe even the NCAA Tournament.
The severity of the sprain isn’t known and it could be a crude exaggeration to suggest he might miss any more than a game, or any time for that matter, but the chance absolutely exists that he will be missing some time and if so, how badly will he be missed?
On the assumption he’s going to miss Thursday’s game (he’s listed as questionable, the decision will be made that day) or at least will play limited minutes, there are definitely some major implications.
For starters, Blackshear is a key cog in Florida’s offense. Whether it’s as the screen setter in Florida’s pick and roll offense, the pivot in the high post of Florida’s Princeton-inspired motion offense, or simply as a big-time threat on the offensive glass, his presence would be missed.
Blackshear has averaged 12.8 points per game this season, second on the team behind Keyontae Johnson, but that number itself doesn’t show just how important he is to the offensive side of the ball. One of the reasons he is so important is that he offers the Gators a unique ability to post up, something they don’t get from anyone else on the roster, evidenced by the fact he leads the team with 116 post-up possessions and Andrew Nembhard is second with 18. However, that still doesn’t tell the whole story, because those 116 possessions only refer to times where he has shot, or turned the ball over, or was fouled, but that doesn’t factor in all the times he has distributed the ball from the block to get a teammate a shot.
When you factor in post up derived offense (shots either on a post up or shots coming off a pass from the post) you start to see it’s actually a decent chunk of Florida’s offense. 10.9% of the Gators offensive possessions come from post-ups, and considering the fact Blackshear is really their only initiator of those actions, that’s a lot of shots to be redistributed. Yes, there is a chance they try to run some of those same post possessions through Omar Payne or Jason Jitoboh but neither of those players have Blackshear’s individual scoring or passing ability, so it’s more likely those shots have to go elsewhere. Diverting over 10% of your shots is a fairly significant offensive change and how the Gators choose to manage their scoring scheme should Blackshear be unable to play will be fascinating.
While the Gators struggled to score with Blackshear off the floor in non-conference play, they actually haven’t been hurt as bad when he has been sent to the bench since SEC play started.
Florida is at 1.06 points per possession with Blackshear on the floor, and 1.01 points per possession when he’s off. Perhaps this is a result of the Gators being forced to adapt to playing without him due to the foul trouble he seems to get into most games, but whatever the cause is, they have found a way to stay productive on offense even with him off the floor and that is encouraging should he have to miss some time.
Where the Gators have hurt without Blackshear on the court is when it comes to defensive rebounding. He has unquestionably been the team’s best rebounder this year, especially on the defensive end where he is grabbing 22% of opponent’s misses.
In fact, Florida’s defensive rebounding percentage takes a dip from 71% to 66% when Blackshear leaves the floor, a number that shows just how impactful he is on the defensive glass. On the offensive side he’s a fantastic rebounder as well, though Omar Payne has Blackshear’s 10.9% offensive rebound rate beat with a 14.8% mark that ranks 17th nationally.
Florida may be able to recreate, or even better his offensive rebounding with someone like Omar Payne in the game but the loss of his defensive rebounding will sting. The loss of his defensive rebounding was devastating in Florida’s last game against Kentucky where the Gators gave up 11 o-boards in the second half, a major reason why they gave up an 18-point lead and lost, and they could find themselves with an early departure from the SEC Tournament if the don’t have other players step up on the glass.
Defensively, Blackshear has had some tough moments this season but has improved of late as the Gators have allowed him to “drop” pick and roll coverages more often, a scheme that has worked much better for him as opposed to the aggressive hedging defense they had him playing for most of the season. When it comes to replacing Blackshear’s defense there isn’t really someone who is going to play like Blackshear, rather the Gators have a few different styles of defensive centers they can roll out.
Omar Payne is an athletic shot blocker who defends the rim at a much higher level than Blackshear, though he is still learning the pace of college basketball and has been lost in a few defensive rotations and has struggled at times in pick and roll defense.
Jason Jitoboh executed the hedging ball screen defense Mike White wants to play better than anyone and has a strong defensive showing against Kentucky, but teams have had success getting him into space where his large frame works against him.
Dontay Bassett has an element of toughness that White has been looking for as of late and as a smaller-bodied big can slide his feet fairly well, especially aided by the fact he’s an older player who understands angles a bit better than the freshmen he’ll be competing for minutes with.
Truthfully, Blackshear has been an up and down defender this year and there isn’t a ton of defensive production to be replaced here, but considering the Gators have different and unique options to replace him with there are opportunities for different looks that could surprise teams.
If Blackshear is unable to go on Thursday the Gators will be missing an incredibly important piece, there’s no question. While the numbers suggest the Gators can stay afloat offensively without him there are going to be matchups where they would sorely miss his scoring ability inside, and even if missing Blackshear’s offense isn’t a problem, his lost rebounding almost certainly will be. What kind of production they can get from the center position should Blackshear be out will be a huge question and quite possibly the biggest factor going into Florida’s game on Thursday against the winner of Georgia and Ole Miss.