When Walter Clayton announced his return to college basketball and the Florida Gators he became the focal point of the 2024-25 roster. This was furthered into the summer, when head coach Todd Golden announced that Clayton would be the team’s starting point guard. Clayton did get some opportunities to play the point a season ago, though he was generally at his best playing next to veteran Zyon Pullin at the lead guard spot.
Clayton also used this past offseason as an opportunity to go through the NBA Draft process, receiving feedback from various teams about his pro prospects. For a time he strongly considered going pro, even if he wasn’t going to be drafted as was expected, but he decided a return to Florida would be the best move for his career. The NIL package he secured will drastically outpace what he would have made on an NBA two-way deal, and his return to Florida will allow him to showcase more of his skills–particularly as lead ball handler.
Standing at just 6’2”, Clayton is not close to the ideal size for a shooting guard. Multiple teams told Clayton that if he was going to have a chance at the NBA he would have to be more of a primary ball handler. Additionally, they want to see a much improved defensive effort as the film was not particularly kind to him on that side of the floor.
Moving Clayton to point guard also helped the Gators from a roster building standpoint. True point guards are extremely difficult to come by in the transfer portal, and the ones that are available are expensive. Florida recruited a number of the top point guards available, but there weren’t many natural fits and if there was one–that player was looking for a huge payday. The coaching staff decided that a move to point guard for Clayton would allow them to use resources elsewhere, particularly with the new frontcourt pieces and the jewel of their class–wing Alijah Martin.
Point guard is an important position, and how Clayton performs in that role could define just how Florida’s season goes. How will Clayton perform in this role, and what does he need to do in order to have a successful season?
To begin, let’s look at how Florida did with Clayton at point guard last season. He did get a considerable amount of minutes at point guard early in the season during the suspension of Zyon Pullin and the time that he was getting acclimated, but those were largely against buy game competition. Instead of looking at those games, let’s look at all the SEC games plus the NCAA Tournament game against Colorado.
In the minutes Clayton was at point guard–the Gators actually had decent results. According to analytics tool Pivot Analysis, with Clayton as the lead guard the Gators had the +5 net rating which isn’t outstanding by any means–but it’s likely better than you would have expected given some of the high-profile poor stretches the Gators had with Clayton handling the ball. More specifically, the Gators were at 1.23 points per possession offensively, and 1.18 points per possession defensively. If you don’t follow analytics–usually the goal in college basketball is to be above about 1.05 points per possession offensively, and below that number defensively. Now that you know that–you can see that the Gators were absolutely explosive offensively with Clayton at the “one.” Looking deeper into the numbers, it’s interesting to note that the Gators shot just 30% from three with Clayton at point guard, but they got the rim a ton and shot 59%. The low three-point percentage numbers could have something to do with Clayton not being able to find open shooters as well as, say, Zyon Pullin–but he was able to put a lot more downhill pressure at the rim.
Playing point guard, Clayton should see a lot of action as a pick and roll ball handler–especially late in shot clocks. This is a positive area for Clayton as he posted 0.94 points per possession, putting him in the 67th percentile nationally. Here is where things get interesting. When Clayton was the one to take the shot out of a pick and roll, the Gators were at 0.97 PPP, putting him in the 86th percentile nationally. However, on possessions where he passed out of the pick and roll–the Gators were at 0.73 PPP. A big reason why is that Clayton struggled with turnovers when trying to make passes, turning the ball over on 25% of his pick and roll passing possessions.
This likely won’t come as a surprise to any of you that watched a lot of Florida games, as Clayton is wired as a scorer who can go and get his own shot at will–though he isn’t someone who is always capable of making the necessary passes. In a lot of ways, this is going to define just how the Clayton point guard experience is going to go. We know he can score whether by getting to the rim or his pull up jumper, but the passing has not been good. Clayton improving his ability to make reads is going to be huge for both the Gators and his individual NBA goals, so this is going to be something to watch this season.
Another area that’s important to Clayton’s NBA dreams is the defensive side of the floor. Teams were critical of his impact on that end, and he was part of a Florida defense that was notoriously poor and finished 94th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
So, will a change to point guard help Clayton now that he doesn’t have to play bigger, more athletic wings, or will his defensive limitations be even more on display now that he’s going to be involved in more actions?
When you look at the film, many of Clayton’s poor plays defensively come with him off the ball. He struggled with rotations, wasn’t impactful in help, and was sloppy with closeouts. This is backed up with statistics, as he allowed 1.1 points per possession in “spot up” situations, putting him in the 17th percentile nationally.
However, when you look at Clayton guarding the ball–the film is much better. He’s not the best defensive stopper or the most disruptive by any means, but he was much more competitive guarding the ball than he was as an off the ball defender. Statistically, he was much better here as well allowing just 0.66 points per possession in opposing ball screens. This put him in the 73rd percentile nationally, which doesn’t make him the cream of the crop as a ball screen defender–but it still makes him a very good one. For some players it can be much easier to guard the point guard position than an off guard position because it’s easier to stay focused, and it’s easier to lock in on one job as opposed to as an off guard where you have to guard more actions. Being at point guard nearly exclusively should mean a simplified defensive role for Clayton and one where he can be much better than what he showed last season.
When it comes to Clayton’s game everyone knows his talent level and his ability to produce offensively. A move to point guard is going to be all about what he can do as a playmaker and how he can improve on the defensive end. It’s a huge year for the Gators and for Clayton to showcase his abilities before going pro, and if he can improve as a lead guard the team is going to benefit as well.