Florida’s opening month of basketball hasn’t gone at all as would be expected before the year taking on two losses in winnable games and not looking particularly sharp in their narrow victories over mid-major opponents. A rocky start has meant multiple Gators have gotten off to slow starts and perhaps most surprisingly Tre Mann is a player that hasn’t yet found his footing.
Suffering a concussion against UConn certainly didn’t help but even when he returned healthy he clearly didn’t have the trust of Coach White playing only 6 minutes against Xavier and 12 against Marshall. Mann, considered one of the most lethal offensive guards in the 2019 class hasn’t yet found his scoring touch and the lack of scoring may have led to him falling behind Ques Glover in the depth chart in the last two contests.
Mann is the exact archetype of a player the Gators need right now to help their offense that has started the season slowly. A 6’4” guard who can get his own shot or get into the paint to collapse a defense. Something they don’t have in their current starting perimeter group of Andrew Nembhard, Noah Locke, and Scottie Lewis. If the Gators are going to reach their ceiling this year, whatever that may be, Mann will need to be a key contributor and that hasn’t been the case yet in this young season.
How exactly has Mann been utilized, what has he struggled with, and what positive signs has he shown? Here is a look into Tre Mann’s start to the season.
Traditional Shooting Numbers
It’s a small sample size with so few games played for Mann, especially given his light minute load against Xavier and Marshall, but the percentages don’t look kind.
From the field he’s shooting 32.4%, a number hurt by his 21.4% three-point stroke and not exactly propped up by his 40% from two.
Also not helping the cause is his 44.4% he’s shooting from the free throw line, something that probably hasn’t helped his cause when it comes to who Coach White wants to use at the end of games. In terms of per game totals he’s averaging 4.8 points, 1.7 rebounds, 0.2 assists, and 0.8 turnovers.
There were some quick shifts for Mann against Xavier and Marshall as Coach White pulled him quickly following errors whether it was shot selection, turnovers, or defense.
Let’s look into each of these categories and see exactly what the situation is.
Shot Selection
Against Marshall a pair of contested 2-point jumpers off the dribble that clanked out drew the ire of the bench and saw a sub come his way. His shot selection has been called out from White before and with it being a problem throughout the roster to start the season it’s clear he’s going to start pulling players who he doesn’t think are taking quality shots.
In the case of Mann there has been tough shot selection at times. He has taken 9 two-point midrange jumpers, 8 of which were with 14 seconds or more left on the shot clock. Twos off the dribble are never the most efficient shot on the floor so taking these attempts in the first half of the clock isn’t a great play.
That isn’t to say that Mann should never take jumpers off the dribble. It’s a valuable skill in modern basketball to be able to shoot off the bounce and Mann has that gift. Throughout his high school career the ability to shoot off the dribble made him impossible to guard and when you look at the best scorers in college basketball they are guards who can shoot off the bounce.
It should be noted that despite a shaky offensive start to the season for Mann he’s still at 0.875 points per possession on shots off the dribble. That’s an above average PPP when it comes to players nationally as it’s a premium skill not many players are adept at. Considering he’s been at 0.875 PPP while struggling a bit it’s likely that number will go up and when it does, watch out.
It should also be noted that Florida’s PPP as a team this year is…wait for it… 0.875, the exact PPP of Mann’s dribble jumpers.
Mann should still try to limit his early twos off the dribble and look for threes instead. He had a fantastic dribble three against Marshall where he pump faked a defender in the air before using a bounce to move sideways and rise up and those will be highly valuable shots to the Gators.
One problem I do have with Mann’s shot selection is his love of the floater, a shot he has gone to often when driving into the lane. He’s shooting floaters at a 28.6% clip (0.572 PPP) making it quite an inefficient shot.
Instead, he should try to get all the way to the rim where he’s shooting 66.7%. He’s got over double the amount of floaters than he has attempts at the rim and that is definitely a backwards stat will need to be corrected. Alternatively, instead of putting up a floater Mann should get his feet underneath him and rise up for a controlled mid-range jumper a stride earlier. He’s more efficient as a pull up shooter than a floater taker and that would really help numbers and put more points on the board.
Turnovers
Against Marshall Mann had a tough turnover where he was simply trying to do too much on the perimeter and he lost the handle on the ball allowing it to bounce to a stationary defender. That mistake ended his shift and sent him to the bench. Does Mann have a turnover problem or was that just an unfortunate error?
In terms of turnover percentage, no. The only two players on the Gators with better turnover percentages than Mann are Scottie Lewis and Noah Locke, two players that aren’t tasked with handling the ball too often.
So it’s not like Mann has turned the ball over a lot, some of his turnovers have just been loud. In addition to fumbling his dribble against Marshall he has picked up an obvious charge where the defender was set up long in advance and he also had a telegraphed wing-to-corner pass that was easily picked up by the defender. But overall, he hasn’t actually turned the ball over much as indicated by the turnover percentage and I don’t think he can be considered a reckless player that’s loose with the ball.
Defense
As with most freshmen Mann’s defense has been questioned and looking back at the film there is some rightful criticism. He has got caught ball watching when in help defense in the paint, allowing his man to relocate and get an open look. There have also been moments where more physical perimeter players have used their size to drive through him.
Some analytics aren’t kind to Mann’s defense. He’s 8th on the team in defensive box minus (at -0.1, suggesting he’s a below average defender nationally), and he’s 7th in defensive win shares.
However, he’s more positive when it comes to individual player tracking stats defensively. Opposing players are only shooting 23.5% when guarded by Mann and when he’s closing out to a jump shooter they’re only making shots at a 25% clip.
I’ll admit, there are definite problems when it comes to using these kinds of defensive numbers. It only logs the player defending the shot taker at the end of the play. That means if someone allowed dribble penetration which forced help to come and there was a kick out to an open shooter, the player who allowed the penetration isn’t getting dinged. So while these numbers shouldn’t be taken as gospel they show that he has had some good defensive moments.
Usage
When it comes to Mann’s struggles to start the season you’ve got to look at how he has been used. As a player Mann is someone who needs the ball in his hands to be creator and someone who pressures defense with his ability to score. So far, that hasn’t been the way he’s been used. Mann is currently 4th on the team in usage rate. Not a painfully low number, but not exactly what you’d expect considering the player Mann is and how the roster is constructed.
In an off-ball role Mann hasn’t thrived, something that could probably be expected considering it has been a long time since he hasn’t been a primary scorer with the ball in hands.
Just how much has he struggled in a spot up role? Get this. An astounding 80% of Mann’s catch and shoot jumpers this year have been unguarded, a number that shooters dream of.
Unfortunately, Mann is shooting 12.5% on those shots.
That number is a tremendous indication of the fact Mann isn’t used to being a floor spacer that plays away from the ball. Throughout high school, he was the one with the rock making plays and now with the Gators he’s been someone on the weak side of the floor waiting for the ball to come and since he wasn’t a catch and shoot player in high school he’s had some trouble adjusting.
This is an area Mann simply needs to improve. To get that many unguarded jump shots and not convert really hurts and he needs to start converting those opportunities at a higher rate. He is clearly going through an adjustment period where he doesn’t get the ball as much as he’s used to but if he doesn’t convert on these unguarded jump shots, it will be tough to earn the trust that will allow him to get the ball more often.
Speaking of getting the ball more often, Mann is yet to really be utilized in the pick and roll game. Florida has ran 207 pick and rolls this year that have led to an immediate shot by the ball handler or a shot off of one pass from the pick and roll.
Of those 207, Mann has ran 11 of them.
Going into the season it was expected Mann would be involved more in the pick and roll game with the threat of his jumper challenging defenses and forcing indecision.
Unfortunately, things haven’t gone well for Mann in those 11 possessions. Florida has shot 14.3% and a handful of Mann’s tough jumpers have come as a pick and roll ball handler.
Mann has a tendency not to attack the screen with speed and he also hasn’t taken good angles around the screen to get into an attacking position. Often times he has gone far too wide and away from the screener which has allowed the defense to react easily and stop any chance at penetration. There is definitely a lot of room for improvement for Mann in the pick and roll game but it’s certainly worth developing for the Gators as Mann’s scoring and shooting off the dribble lends itself well to the pick and roll game when he polishes up those skills.
Positives To Mann’s Game
For Mann, scoring is in his DNA and it was shown earlier in the fact that despite the fact it’s looking like he has struggled to shoot he has still found a way to have decent efficiency numbers shooting off the dribble. Another area he has been good is when it comes to attacking closeouts where he is shooting 44.4%. Since he doesn’t start a lot of possessions with the ball in his hands he needs the ball to move to him but when it does he has been excellent at identifying where the defender is closing out and bursting by him. If he continues to play away from the ball then attacking closeouts is going to be an important skill so the fact he’s looked good in this area is encouraging.
Mann has also looked like one of the most comfortable Gators in transition. He has a smoothness with the ball running at high speeds that allows him to get to where he needs to on the floor and he has a deceptive jump that he has shown to glide to the hoop for layups. Transition hasn’t been a part of Florida’s attack, something that has also been a detriment to Mann’s start to the season, but if they ever start getting out and running more Mann will be an important part of that offense. He’s currently at an even 1.0 PPP in transition making him one of the best Gators in that area.
Places Mann Needs To Improve
Even though Mann is a player more comfortable with the ball than without it, he has to start capitalizing on the open jumpers he’s getting. With his shooting ability it’s doubtful the slumping on open jump shots is going to continue but up until now it’s been a problem and if he can’t cash in on the open jumpers it will really hurt the team’s confidence in him.
Just like was mentioned earlier in the article his shot selection needs to be tightened up a bit. Abandoning the floater and instead looking for pull up shots or, ideally, getting right to the rim where he can use his tremendous finishing ability would be really wise and could help him put more points on the board.
When Mann does get the ball he also has to demonstrate he can be a creator for his teammates. Outside of Andrew Nembhard the Gators lack a guard who can really create shots for teammates and so far Mann hasn’t shown that ability with one single assist to his name. That number is a bit misleading as he created a few great looks out of the pick and roll that didn’t fall but he still hasn’t been excellent at recognizing collapsing defenses and hitting the open man. It’s still so, so early in his college career and with more reps we might instantly see better recognition but it hasn’t been the case yet and it seems he needs to prove it to White to get more opportunities.
Florida’s Usage Of Mann
Simply put, Mann is always going to be a better player with the ball in his hands as a playmaker than as an off-ball guard. Not getting to be an initiator very often has probably played a role in Mann taking tougher shots when he does get the rock which is something he needs to improve on but also shows he might not be getting used in the best possible ways.
When he is off the ball Mann is going to need to improve as a spot up shooter and show more value there but at the same time the Gators would be well served to get the ball in Mann’s hands earlier and more often. His ability to beat his man one-on-one is unique on this roster and would give the Gators an offensive element they don’t currently have and it would also give a break to Andrew Nembhard from the heavy ball handling duties he’s had so far this season. Nembhard has also shown great value as an off-ball player hitting an astonishing 47% of his catch and shoot threes last season and the Gators wouldn’t lose value there shifting him away from the ball for some possessions. Alternatively, keeping Mann off the ball for long stretches clearly hasn’t maximized his abilities.
With Mann’s numbers in the pick and roll looking so poor in the small sample size to start the season it’s understandable why the coaching staff wouldn’t be in a hurry to give him more of a ball handling load but looking at what Mann did on the prep circuits and looking at who Florida has on the roster it could be in their best interests to develop Mann on the ball. It’s clear that Mann has things to improve on but there are also ways he could be better utilized that would allow him to contribute more to winning than he is doing in his current role.
It’s early in the season and roles are being defined and style of play is being established and how Mann gets deployed moving forward will be an interesting storyline to follow.