Shot selection was a big discussion around Florida’s offense last year and that conversation is continuing as the Gators field a roster full of offensive talents this season. Which shots to take and which shots to ignore is an important dialogue in modern basketball, fueled by the emergence of analytics to try to get the most efficient shots possible. Intelligent shot selection is important because it gets the best out of players while also covering up weaknesses. If players are out looking for shots that are actually inefficient for them then they are going to be inefficient players that are probably contributing to losing, while great shot selection can make an end of the bench player into someone who can play an important offensive role.
Analyzing shot selection can also help project how well a team is going to score points based on what kind of shots they are taking. One great example of this was Florida’s blowout loss to Michigan in the NCAA Tournament last year, a game where they only managed to score 49 points. Was that just a dominating defensive performance by Michigan?
I wrote an article about that game here where I tracked every single shot the Gators took and charted their points per possession (or PPP going forward in this article) for each attempt. If you haven’t read it I would invite you to here. The thing is, based on the shots they were taking they would only be expected to score 55.6 points in that game. That is partially a credit to the shots the Gators were getting forced into by a stout Michigan defense but also was a microcosm of Florida’s season some players simply didn’t know what shots were best for themselves and hunted inefficient looks.
That game was a perfect example of why shot selection matters and for that reason I wanted to write about shot selection for the returning Gators.
Every value given is in PPP, a modern and (in my opinion) the best way to value shots. It makes it easier to sort the value of shots by expressing it as an actual point total instead of something like field goal percentage, and that way you don’t have to sort through comparing a 2-point percentage shot to a 3-point percentage shot in your head. In many NBA coaching circles they simply don’t use field goal percentage anymore, they exclusively talk about shots in terms of PPP (something I’m a big fan of).
For a reference point, the Gators as a team had 0.897 PPP overall last year and 0.867 PPP in half court offense. Mind you, this wasn’t a great number and you’d like to see it a bit higher, but that number should help as essentially, if a shot was higher than that number it was good for the Gators and if it was worse, it was a bad shot. The best offensive teams in college basketball get close to 1.0 PPP so anything at that mark or over is really good.
With all that being said, here are the best shots and worst shots for the returning Gators.
Andrew Nembhard
Best Shots
Catch and Shoot Three: 1.438 PPP
Worst Shots
Dribble Jumper (anywhere in the mid-range): 0.53 PPP
Dribble Jumper (from three): 0.6 PPP
I wrote about this earlier in the offseason and I’m going to beat that drum again—Andrew Nembhard is an elite catch and shoot player. Just a fractional hair under 48% on catch and shoot threes is just a preposterous number for the Gators’ point guard and it was put on display once again in the exhibition against Lynn where he canned 4 catch and shoot 3-pointers. Whenever he has hit feet set and catches the ball in rhythm he should have a glowing green light to let it fly.
Nembhard’s incredible catch and shoot numbers are going to surprise some people because overall his 3-point percentage wasn’t anything to write home about. Unfortunately, that is due to Nembhard’s struggles to shoot the ball off the bounce as evidenced by those tough numbers from both the midrange and from behind the arc. Almost every player is better off the catch than off the dribble but in modern basketball point guards are often put in the position where they need to shoot off the bounce and it’s a skill Nembhard will have to continue to develop. Sometimes these attempts were unfortunate grenades he had to put up at the end of shot clocks due to a stalled offensive possession but he also hunted these looks from time to time and unless he drastically improves his stroke off the dribble the number of these shots should hopefully go down.
If you’re interested in reading why I think Nembhard struggles to shoot off the dribble you can read my article about that here.
Noah Locke
Best Shots
Right Corner Catch and Shoot Threes: 1.779 PPP
Dribble Jumper Threes: 1.219 PPP
Worst Shots
Layups: 0.728
Free Throw Line Area Dribble Jumpers: 0.476
Left Corner Threes: 0.6 PPP
Floaters: 0.533 PPP
Obviously we know Noah Locke is a spectacular shooter but learning he went 16-27 for 1.779 PPP from the right corner is absolutely absurd. Considering he actually struggled from the other corner I think the Gators can make some tactical decisions regarding where to set Locke up in some sets. For example, Locke missed multiple left corner threes when there was a designed baseline inbounds play to get him that shot. Knowing that he shoots much better from the right corner than the left corner perhaps they could run that set for him more often on the right side of the court. With his shooting ability I’m sure he’ll bring up that left corner percentage but with one season of sample size it’s still pretty interesting that he is lights out from one corner but not as much a threat from the other. It was also encouraging to see him be really effective off the dribble from three. While that probably isn’t a look the Gators are going to design for early in the clock the fact he’s super efficient on those looks gives a great late clock scenario for the Gators. So often last season it was Andrew Nembhard who was forced to take a dribble jumper at the end of a shot clock when really more of those looks could have gone to Locke.
A lot of Locke’s inefficient shots come from the fact that he’s not really comfortable finishing at the rim quite yet. You can see that his layup numbers were poor and that meant when he was driving he often settled for the pull-up two or the floater which as you can see from the numbers are not good shots for him. Considering the fact that he shot excellently from three off the dribble those numbers from midrange will probably go up but you’ve got to be a really, really good midrange shooter to keep that shot efficient. When it comes to floaters he did what most players do, and that’s struggle.
Keyontae Johnson
Best Shots
Catch and Shoot Corner Threes: 1.5 PPP
Layups/Dunks: 1.174 PPP
Worst Shots
Catch and Shoot Threes (above the break): 0.786 PPP
Floaters: 0.609 PPP
There is a lot to like about Keyontae Johnson’s shot selection because he mostly keeps it to what he does well—finishing strong inside and taking open catch and shoot jumpers. He didn’t try to force much off the dribble and kept his game simple and effective. He was Florida’s most consistent corner 3-point shooter and unlike Noah Locke he didn’t care which corner he was in—he shot 50% from both. Those 1.5 PPP shots from the corners are tremendous for Johnson and I’m sure we’ll see a lot of them this year. Considering his strength and leaping ability I’m sure it won’t surprise people to see that he was really efficient when it came to finishing inside when he drives. Especially good when attacking closeouts if he got to the rim it was a high percentage look for the Gators and it’s something they should take every time.
While Johnson was lethal from the corners on catch and shoot threes he actually struggled with threes above the break (any three that’s not a corner three, essentially) and he especially struggled with the straight on three where he was 0.564 PPP. He’s got a compact stroke which is fundamentally sound and looks nice but there is some work to be done on expanding his range until the point where he can shoot a better percentage on the further threes from above the break. Johnson, like almost every player, struggled with floaters as you can see from the numbers and he actually went to that shot a lot. When you see how good he is when he gets to the rim you’d like to see him drive all the way to the rim and try to finish there where he can take contact and maybe draw a foul instead of settling for the low percentage runner.
Kerry Blackshear Jr.
Best Shots
Hook Shots: 1.026 PPP
Catch And Shoot Threes (Straight On): 1.2 PPP
Layups/Dunks: 1.238 PPP
Worst Shots
Catch And Shoot Three (Left Wing): 0.375 PPP
Tip Ins: 0.778
Middle Distance Mid-Range Jumpers: 0.552
What makes Kerry Blackshear Jr. such a special player in today’s college game is the fact that he is so efficient down on the block, something you see with his hook shot ability as well as his layup/dunk numbers. He had a really high volume of those attempts and remained efficient and these numbers don’t even factor in the points he would get from the free throw line and he drew a lot of fouls with the attention he attracted down on the low block.
Blackshear Jr. didn’t actually take a lot of three point attempts last year so it’s tough to extrapolate his small sample size data, and it might even be worthless now that it seems he might be the Gators’ best catch and shoot player from those who have seen Florida’s practices. But, for whatever it’s worth he really liked the straight on threes last season and struggled from the left wing. He also loved to try and get tip ins on the offensive glass, something that wasn’t super efficient but are often attempts where you can get your fingertips on the ball and nothing else so there isn’t an opportunity to secure the ball and get a better look. I more added that number just to show that it’s an element of his game as an offensive rebounder. On shot he liked to take that wasn’t efficient was the 15-17 foot midrange jumper. In Florida’s offense he likely won’t see as many opportunities to take this shot like he did in Virginia Tech where he ran a lot of offense for that range and that’s probably a good thing.
Let’s also look at some of last year’s Gators to see what they brought from an offensive efficiency standpoint.
Kevarrius Hayes
Best Shots
Hook Shot: 1.25 PPP
Layups/Dunks: 1.384 PPP
Worst Shots
Mid-Range Jumper: 0.666 PPP
Kevarrius Hayes took a lot of criticism for his offensive struggles at times and while there were times his hands definitely hurt him he was actually really efficient when he did get shots up. He didn’t take a ton of post hook shots but he was effective when he did and if he had a window to catch and finish inside he did pretty well against what were often bigger centers.
KeVaughn Allen
Best Shots
Dribble Jumpers (from three): 1.075 PPP
Dribble Jumpers (midrange): 0.93 PPP
Catch And Shoot Three (straight on): 1.428 PPP
Worst Shots
Catch And Shoot Three (both wings): 0.444 PPP
Driving Right Layup: 0.4 PPP
Floater: 0.624
KeVaughn Allen provided some value as a player that could shoot pretty well off the dribble, including from the midrange where his 0.93 is actually really good for a midrange jumper off the bounce. While he was lethal with straight on threes he really, really was hurting from catch and shoot threes on the wing which is where most of his threes came from. Allen is another player on the Gators who wasn’t great at finishing inside which made him often settle for the floater when driving which is another low-percentage look.
Jalen Hudson
Best Shots
Straight On Catch And Shoot Threes: 1.236 PPP
Worst Shots
Dribble Jumper Threes: 0.587 PPP
Floaters: 0.514 PPP
Jalen Hudson had a rough season and it was mostly defined by the fact that he was continually hunting for threes off the dribble despite the fact they were not good shots for the Gators. He also was below average when it came to finishing at the rim which led to him taking a lot of bad floaters (he led the Gators in floater attempts). He had some good moments as a catch and shoot player but unfortunately he just never seemed to look for those shots, instead he looked for tough jumpers and difficult floaters.
Final Thoughts
Basketball players aren’t computers and they’re not going to be able to constantly calculate what is a good, bad, better, or worse shot for themselves in real time given the speed of the game but I still think it’s of monumental importance that they understand on a broad scale what’s a good shot for them and what’s not. Last season saw players aggressively looking for shots that the numbers show were really bad. It’s not that those shots should be outlawed, but players should know that their first and second goals shouldn’t be to get to those shots, but we often saw that was the case. Basic knowledge of what’s a good shot and what’s a bad shot could really help the Gators get the most out of their offense this year and excellent shot selection could take them from good to great when it comes to scoring the basketball.