Think about Mike White basketball and say the first thing that comes to mind.
For some of you it was probably defense that jumped out first. Pressuring the perimeter, protecting the paint, closing out with speed, everything that has kept Florida near the top of national defensive metrics throughout White’s time at Florida.
Maybe you thought of playing fast. Of course, we didn’t see it last season but some of the residual effects of White’s turbocharged Louisiana Tech offenses were still seen in his first few seasons in Gainesville and elements of it could return.
Or, you may have thought of toughness and competitiveness, something that oozes from White on the sideline and is something he always preaches about in press conferences.
Those would all be great answers. However, it’s not what we’re going to be talking about today. As much as White’s defense, speed, and competitive philosophies have been talked about as pillars of his basketball teams there is another common trait all his teams have focused on.
Offensive rebounding.
If that was something you thought of when I asked you to think of Mike White basketball than bonus points for you because it’s not something you see talked about very often. However, it probably should be.
The Gators are a team that has struggled to defensively rebound the basketball under White, and they’ve gotten worse every year. Here is where they have ranked nationally in defensive rebounding the last 4 seasons.
2019: 313th
2018: 256th
2017: 193rd
2016: 162nd
Considering their struggles to rebound defensively you might expect them to also hurt on the offensive rebounding side but that isn’t the case. Here is where they ranked in terms of offensive rebounding.
2019: 98th
2017: 171st
2016: 73rd
2015: 65th
As you can see White’s teams have always been better at rebounding offensively than defensively, a trend that also holds up when you go back to his seasons at Louisiana Tech. The fact Florida has done so much better at rebounding the ball offensively than defensively suggests White has really made an emphasis at that particular skill set and it really is one of the cornerstones of Mike White basketball. This is also proven when you look at college basketball on the whole.
National Trend
Offensive rebounding has actually been declining in college basketball recently and the amount of offensive rebounding nationally has dropped in each of the last 7 seasons. Here is the national offensive rebounding percentage for each season.
2019: 28.4%
2018: 28.7%
2017: 29.3%
2016: 29.8%
2015: 31.0%
2014: 31.4%
2013: 31.8%
To put that into perspective, 31.8% (the average in 2013) would have put you at 63rd in the country last season making you one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country.
Why has this happened? A few reasons. First of all, teams are playing smaller nowadays so there are fewer players with the skillset to go get on the offensive glass. More so, in my opinion, coaches have decided to neglect offensive rebounding in favor of getting back in transition defense to not allow any fast break shot attempts for the other team.
Whatever the reason, it’s clear offensive rebounding is going down on the grand scale of college basketball but Coach White is continuing to focus on the offensive glass. The more that other teams choose to get back in transition and not attack the glass the more apparent it’s going to be that White is different and offensive rebounding could be proven as more of a White staple.
Is the fact that most teams are choosing to be less aggressive on the glass a reason that it’s unwise to offensively rebound or is White’s philosophy of getting on the offensive glass wise?
The Value Of An Offensive Rebound
It’s time to get analytical. Here is something that is pretty basic about basketball—the team who gets the most possessions is in the best shape to win and if there is ever a major discrepancy in the amount of total possessions the team on the right side of the count usually wins. There are two ways to generate extra possessions and that’s to generate turnovers and get offensive rebounds. When it comes to turnovers you can tell White really values that aspect of the game. White’s teams have always been good at taking care of the ball and they also really pressure the other team defensively to try and get deflections and steals. For that reason, you can see why White also likes to send lots of bodies to the offensive glass.
The Gators averaged 0.867 points per possession in the half court last season. You can note that Florida’s number was not that great (39th percentile) but it’s an important figure to keep in mind when thinking of all things analytical. That means that every time Florida gets the ball their expected shot value is 0.867 points. When talking offensive rebounds, that means every time they get an o-board they have another possession which is worth 0.867 points to them.
To put it simply, you could very easily say that every offensive rebound was worth 0.867 points to the Gators.
The Gators averaged 10.4 offensive rebounds per game last year, meaning their offensive rebounds added 9 points per game to their expected shot value. Most teams averaged around 8 offensive rebounds per game and if they had the same half court PPP as the Gators that would only make for 6.9 points added. Very simply speaking, the Gators average about 2 more points per game than their opponents due to offensive rebounding when you look at what the possession is worth.
At least, that’s what some analytics people would tell you. I’m here to go even deeper.
Looking at possessions following offensive rebounds as normal 0.867 possessions isn’t all that inaccurate or misleading but it’s a bit shallow statistically. Here are some numbers I think are really relevant to this discussion.
The Gators scored 1.041 points per possession on offensive rebound put backs last year. When you get an offensive rebound you’re usually close to the rim and that often gives you a good opportunity to put the ball right back up, often times when the defender isn’t even in a great spot to contest it. The 1.041 PPP number shows just how good of a shot that it is as it’s much higher than Florida’s overall PPP average.
Here’s another element of the offensive rebound—it often gives you a chance at a kick out catch-and-shoot three, the kind of inside-out three that’s one of the most sought-after shots in basketball. Of the teams I have studied these are always the most valuable shots and in the Gators’ case it’s no different. Florida was at 1.33 PPP on catch-and-shoot threes coming off offensive rebounds which is an extremely efficient shot, one of the most efficient they could possiblly generate.
Let’s break things down a bit more.
The Gators had 375 offensive rebounds last year.
They immediately went for put back attempts 146 times.
They had a catch-and-shoot 3-point attempt off the kick out 42 times.
That leaves 187 times where they simply got the ball out and got back into their offense. Let’s calculate that into a more accurate figure of what their PPP was after offensive rebounds.
146 put backs x 1.041 PPP = 152.0
42 kick out threes x 1.33 PPP = 55.9
187 normal half court offensive possessions x 0.867 = 162.1
Add up those 3 values and divide it by the 375 offensive rebounds the Gators grabbed and you’ve got 0.99 PPP for each offensive rebound. Nearly a point per possession. So, when you’re watching the Gators play next season and they get an offensive rebound know that it’s worth roughly a point to them every single time.
Now, that also means every time they give up an offensive rebound it’s worth roughly a point to the other team. Obviously other teams’ efficiency numbers will be a bit different than the Gators’ but they are probably similar enough that this is an okay premise to work on. The Gators gave up 390 offensive rebounds last year, more than they got themselves and a number that stings more now that the numbers are really clear.
What To Do With This Data
The Gators are going to have a few options of what they can do lineup-wise this season. When Keyontae Johnson (the likely starter at power forward) goes to the bench they’ll have the chance to either go small with someone like Scottie Lewis at PF or go big with someone like Omar Payne or Dontay Bassett there. Keeping in mind these rebounding statistics we’ve just learned, playing big lineups and trying to dominate the glass seems like quite an intriguing option. Florida hasn’t fared particularly well in close games the last few seasons and they had 5 one possession games last year and when 1-4 in those contests. Knowing how valuable rebounding is really changes the way those close games can be looked at and knowing the value of a rebound could really entice the Gators to go bigger this year. Imagine if the Gators offensively rebounded slightly better last year and averaged one more o-board per game and really cleaned up their defensive rebounding and allowed two less to their opponents. That would be an easy three-point swing per game now that we know an offensive rebound is worth about a point.
Luckily for the Gators they’ll have some pieces to control the glass. Keyontae Johnson was 280th in the country in offensive rebound rate and 112th in defensive rebounding rate while Kerry Blackshear Jr. was 39th in offensive rebounding and 369th defensively. Add Scottie Lewis to that group who was a dominant rebounding wing in high school and you’ve got a starting group that should be tough to contain on the glass. You’ve also got Omar Payne who is plenty long and athletic, especially if he plays the 4, and Jason Jitoboh who not many teams are going to be able to match up with at 6’11” and 275. Look for the Gators to continue to make rebounding a priority and with this group of players I expect them to very easily be better in both offensive and defensive rebounding than they have been the last few seasons.
Mike White has always been keen on chasing missed shots and getting on the glass and I think the numbers are clear when it comes to the importance of rebounding. For the Gators to reach their ceiling this year they’ll need to be giants on the glass and with the roster they have this year they shouldn’t have a problem.
P.S. If you’d like more reading on the Gators and offensive rebounding I wrote about what kinds of shots produced the most offensive rebounds for the Gators here.