Longtime Gator Country readers will know that before every Florida basketball season I make predictions on the statistical production of the incoming transfers. This goes back to 2020 with the initial work, a mix of statistical and film-based analysis, predicting the impact of Tyree Appleby and Anthony Duruji. After those projections were (shockingly) pretty accurate, the project has continued every season.
If you want to see my preseason article and make sure I’m not fudging any numbers, you can do so here:
Throughout the years the system has been extremely accurate in some cases (see Anthony Duruji, Tyree Appleby, and Kyle Lofton as glowing examples), and it has been quite off in others (I did not predict last year’s immediate impact of Walter Clayton). How did I do this year? Let’s get into it:
Alijah Martin
Preseason Projections:
30.4 Minutes
12.3 Points
2.7 Assists
4.5 Rebounds
1.6 Steals
0.3 Blocks
35.3% Three-Point
Actual Stats:
30.4 Minutes
14.4 Points
2.2 Assists
4.5 Rebounds
1.5 Steals
0.2 Blocks
35.0% Three-Point
Personally, I am counting this prediction as a pretty massive win with a few outright nailed numbers alongside some pretty close misses. Truthfully Martin was an even better player than I imagined, particularly with his ability to get to the rim as a driver which accounts for the extra points I wasn’t projecting. Despite Martin coming to Gainesville wanting to be more of a ball handler I suspected he wasn’t going to get too many of those opportunities and that his assists would remain low, and I’m kicking myself for not going lower which would have resulted in some even closer projections. So far, we’re off to a good start.
Rueben Chinyelu
Preseason Projections:
19.8 Minutes
6.6 Points
0.9 Assists
6.8 Rebounds
0.4 Steals
1.4 Blocks
0.0% Three-Point
Actual Stats:
19.0 Minutes
6.0 Points
0.7 Assists
6.6 Rebounds
0.5 Steals
0.9 Blocks
0.0% Three-Point
Once again, I feel great about these projections and how close they finished. I am a little bit disappointed that I ultimately put Chinyelu’s points and blocked shots higher than my initial run of projections, and perhaps after this year I will trust my gut a little bit more. Chinyelu is a player whose impact isn’t going to be perfectly captured by the numbers, but I’m still happy I was able to come close with these projections.
Sam Alexis
Preseason Projections:
18.9 Minutes
6.2 Points
0.9 Assists
5.9 Rebounds
0.4 Steals
1.0 Blocks
27.0% Three-Point
Actual Stats
11.9 Minutes
4.7 Points
0.4 Assists
3.5 Rebounds
0.3 Steals
0.6 Blocks
20.0% Three-Point
After two stellar predictions, here was my clear miss on the projections. I thought that Alexis was going to be far more impactful on the defensive end than he ultimately was, and that defensive impact was going to allow him to be on the floor a lot more and therefore put up more stats. I was never particularly high on his limited offensive game so I didn’t expect him to put up any crazy amount of points as you can see, but if he got closer to that 20 minute-ish mark he may have had numbers closer to what I expected. Of course, even Alexis’ per game averages don’t really tell the whole story due to the fact he only played in 24 games initially due to injury and then in large part due to the return of Micah Handlogten.
The projections had a bit of a rough showing in 2023-24 but I think they have bounced back in a huge way in 2024-25 with some really solid projections on Alijah Martin and Rueben Chinyelu. Next season will bring on quite a challenge with the new backcourt, but it’s one I am happy to take on. Look forward to the projections to come just before the 2025-26 season.