A tradition that has developed here at Gator Country is for me to spend time in the preseason crunching the numbers and watching film in order to generate a statistical prediction of Florida’s incoming transfers.
If you want to take a look back at how I did with last season’s predictions, you can do so here.
Spoiler alert–after several incredibly successful years (in my humble opinion), things took a step back last season with my first set of projections that weren’t all that close. I got into why that was the case in that article, so you’re welcome to take a look at that before going on to reading this year’s projections.
In past seasons I have also explained my method–a mix of stats and film that looks at a number of different inputs in order to generate a projection that is hopefully close to what these players are going to do at Florida. If you want to read more about that, again–you can look back at the previous year’s article. For this year’s projections–let’s just get right into it. Here is my algorithmic prediction for the impact of Florida’s incoming transfers.
Alijah Martin
30.4 Minutes
12.3 Points
2.7 Assists
4.5 Rebounds
1.6 Steals
0.3 Blocks
35.3% Three-Point
Alijah Martin is someone whose impact is mostly felt on the defensive end–something that isn’t going to come through the counting stats. However, he’s still been a decent offensive player who is efficient at shooting off the catch, and those threes at volume are likely going to be the engine behind his point. Martin has never been put in a role to play make, and while he’s said to be getting more of these opportunities at Florida it’s still hard to suggest him being a big assist guy–though there is a definite opportunity he blows past his projection. Despite being just 6’2”, Martin has always been very good on the glass, and he’s likely going to be one of the better 6’2” rebounders in the country once again–though his numbers could be lower since Florida will have a lot of size in the frontcourt absorbing those misses.
Rueben Chinyelu
19.8 Minutes
6.6 Points
0.9 Assists
6.8 Rebounds
0.4 Steals
1.4 Blocks
0% Three-Point
Set to start at the center position, Chinyelu is going to play a key role on this team. However, if there is one thing that keeps him from playing a lot of minutes it’ll be his extremely high foul rate. Averaging over 6 fouls per 40 minutes at Washington State Chinyelu was constantly sending players to the free throw line, and while he never really got into “foul trouble” at Washington State because he was a bench player who didn’t play a lot, it’s going to be a concern at Florida where they will be starting him. Chinyelu will be out there for defense and rebounding, and likely won’t put up very big point totals. You might think that 1.4 blocks doesn’t sound like a lot, but considering he’s projected for under 20 minutes per game that’s still a good amount of swats for his time on the floor.
Sam Alexis
18.9 Minutes
6.2 Points
0.9 Assists
5.9 Rebounds
0.4 Steals
1.0 Blocks
27% Three-Point
As is the case with the other incoming transfers, Alexis is a defense-first athlete whose impact isn’t going to totally show up in the box score. Right now Florida’s staff is set on Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu holding down the starting frontcourt spots with Alexis coming off the bench, though there should still be plenty of minutes available due to post players not playing as much generally and Chinyelu’s foul rate. Alexis will still play a lot of minutes and have his chance to have an impact, particularly with his defense and rebounding. Offensively Alexis is somewhat limited, though he’s willing to take an open jumper and can beat a switch on the low block for a layup.
These are the official Gator Country predictions for the statistical impact of the transfers. Share your thoughts on what you think and what your predictions are in the comment section or on the Gator Country message boards.