Resume Win On the Line Against #24 Mississippi State

Big wins are tough to come by in college basketball and so far a standout resume win has eluded the Gators. Fortunately, they’ll get another chance to grab one on Tuesday when they head to Starkville to take on the #24 Mississippi State Bulldogs. Playing a ranked team like this on the road poses a major challenge but also offers the Gators a chance at big win that could elevate both perception of the team and the valuable computer numbers that help decide things on Selection Sunday. Given that the Gators have started SEC play 1-2 this will game will also offer up the chance to square things up in the standings and give the team a chance to get things moving in the right direction. Here are some things to consider before Tuesday night’s matchup.

Wounded, Or Ready To Pounce?

After being #14 in the prior AP Poll the Bulldogs had a tough week taking losses to South Carolina in overtime and then to in-state rival Ole Miss. That was enough to drop them 10 spots in the poll but for the Gators’ sake I’m glad they at least stayed in the top-25. Considering how good Mississippi State was to start the season their loss to South Carolina makes Florida’s loss to the Gamecocks look a little bit less bad and that can’t hurt things for the Gators. Ole Miss has also been surging of late so that loss probably isn’t as bad as you might think, but it will be interesting to see how the Bulldogs respond after they had two disappointing games. They definitely don’t want to lose three straight and might come out especially hungry but their confidence level probably isn’t the highest right now. The Gators will definitely look to break out a lead early and try to get some doubt to creep into the mind of their opponents.

Play Style

Coach Ben Howland has always been known for his defensive prowess but historically his teams haven’t been great offensively.

That is not the case this year.

Sporting a balanced attack of versatile offensive players the Bulldogs have been winning games with their ability to score while defense has taken the back seat to what they do when they have the ball. Currently 23rd in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ranking they have been excellent at scoring but their 60th ranked defense is what allowed South Carolina and Ole Miss to catch them in consecutive games. Most impressive about the Mississippi State attack is their excellence with the 3-ball, currently shooting 38% and torching the nets wherever they play. The Gators will be in tough trying to prevent those shots coming up as the Bulldogs have multiple elite 3-point shooters including Nick Weatherspoon (48.6%), Aric Holman (43.8%), and Lamar Peters (41.4%).

One area the Gators could exploit is how loose the Bulldogs are with the basketball at times, turning the ball over on 19% of possessions. The Gators have continued to be one of the best turnover-forcing squads in the country and they could generate a lot of trouble in the Mississippi State backcourt with a few intercepted passes or batted-away dribble attempts.

Player To Watch

The stats would probably indicate that the Bulldog’s most important player is Quinndary Weatherspoon (17.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists) but to me their most important player is point guard Lamar Peters (13.6 points, 6.1 assists). Lots of their 3-pointers are generated by the vision of Peters and his passing can pick apart opposing defenses. Not just a pure passer, his ability to score in the midrange and at the hoop attracts help-side defenses and opens up passing lanes to his teammates. Andrew Nembhard, who had some tough moments against Tennessee, will have a big challenge as he deals with the junior Peters. One advantage Nembhard will have is height as Peters is listed, probably generously, at 6’0” tall. Nembhard’s length will hopefully deter some passes and keep Peters to the outside where help doesn’t need to come from other Gators.

In The Zone

Coach White rolled out a really clever defensive scheme against Tennessee, playing an extended 1-3-1 zone that pushed the Volunteers far away from the hoop. When they eventually worked the ball into a corner, usually with 15 or so seconds burned off the shot clock, the Gators would then match up in their man defense. It worked really well at bothering Tennessee and I’ll be curious to see if the Gators use it again. Mississippi State has some shooters that could punish the Gators’ zone if it becomes lazy but forcing the ball out of the hands of Lamar Peters and Quinndary Weatherspoon could be a very viable option. I’d also expect Coach White to roll out the 1-2-2 press that has worked so well this season, another defense that really slows down the opposition and makes them work deep into the shot clock.

Starting Lineup

It has now been two games in a row where Coach White has started a small lineup that included Jalen Hudson at the “4” spot. We’ve seen some okay spurts from Hudson but nothing that I think justifies him playing major minutes for the team. I’m curious to see if White rolls out that same lineup because there could be some really interested matchups with Mississippi State. The Bulldogs sometimes play a really big frontcourt with 6’11”, 260 pound Abdul Ado next to 6’10”, 225 Aric Holman, but they also sometimes play 6’4” Quinndary Weatherspoon as a power forward. If Howland wants to do the latter then the Gators could naturally match up Hudson there, but I’m still not sure that’s what they’ll want to do given Hudson’s play recently. I’d love to see more minutes for Keyontae Johnson who is starting to string together multiple solid games and provides the rebounding, defense, and toughness Hudson hasn’t brought. Johnson’s consistency could earn him a bigger role but hey, you never know, this could be the game were Hudson finally heats up again.

Here’s hoping.

Isaiah Stokes

A lot of people have been asking what’s going on with redshirt-freshman Isaiah Stokes who has been dressed but hasn’t played the last few games. Coach White addressed this rather pointedly in a press conference Monday, saying that Stokes’ conditioning simply isn’t good enough. I can see where White is coming from as watching the game against Tennessee I just don’t think Stokes would have worked into the Gators’ scheme as they pressured far from the basket and extended their defense. I don’t think Stokes would have been able to play the middle of that 1-3-1 and that defense was what kept Florida in the game. I’d love to see Stokes prosper and be a regular part of the rotation but until his conditioning gets to a higher level I don’t see it happening, and I’m also not sure he’ll be able to reach that conditioning level with the time left in the season.

Locke Is Hot

Through 15 games this season freshman Noah Locke has made 40 3-point shots which currently has him on pace to set the Florida record for threes made by a freshman, currently held by Anthony Roberson with 74. His 42.6% clip has also been extremely impressive and I’m not sure where the Gators would be at without his shooting and the 10.4 points per game he’s providing. To be honest, I wouldn’t have guessed that Locke would have been second in team scoring like he is right now but it has been valuable production considering the upperclassmen haven’t performed to the level we have expected.

Final Thoughts

Florida has a chance to jump on a Mississippi State team that has dropped a couple games they probably thought they had. Hanging with Tennessee for 38 minutes will hopefully give the Gators more confidence than the fact they got bullied in the final possessions and hopefully this can be a game where they bounce back and get their first win over a ranked opponent. I’ll be particularly watching for Andrew Nembhard to see how he responds from a tough game, and I’ll also be watching for Noah Locke to hit some more big shots.

Eric Fawcett
Eric is a basketball coach and writer from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. His work has been found at NBA international properties, ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Lindy's and others. He loves zone defenses, the extra pass, and a 30 second shot clock. Growing up in Canada, an American channel showing SEC basketball games was his first exposure to Gator hoops, and he has been hooked ever since. You can follow him on Twitter at @ericfawcett_.