When Florida and Tennessee had their first meeting of the season, it was one of the most truly bizarre outcomes of the college basketball season. Florida has just come off a loss to Mississippi State, a game they were heavily favored in, and were seeing a Tennessee team that looked built to capitalize on Florida’s deficiencies.
To make matters worse, Florida was without Colin Castleton and Scottie Lewis. Castleton was on a major hot streak and was a key focus of Florida’s offensive attack, and Lewis was one of the few players on Florida’s wings that matched up with the athleticism and length of Tennessee’s perimeter.
Even with the deck stacked against the Gators, it didn’t matter. They led the Volunteers right from the jump and never relented, coming away with a 75-49 win.
In meeting #2 of the season the Gators should have confidence knowing that they were able to take care of the Volunteers despite being short handed, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be an easy game. Tennessee is big and physical, and while they haven’t come close to reaching the preseason expectations they had as one of the best teams in not only the SEC, but the country, they have still been solid.
This game also has some serious stakes. Florida is currently 4th in the SEC, meaning they’re in position for the final double-bye in the SEC Tournament. A win over Tennessee, who is 5th, would secure that, and a loss would almost certainly lose it. Florida would love to begin their SEC Tournament on the Friday with the double-bye as opposed to Thursday with the single bye, so they’ll have heavy motivation.
Florida is also playing for NCAA Tournament seeding. Most prognosticators have the Gators as a 7-seed currently, but any hiccups or teams behind them playing great could have them drop to the 8 line. As everyone knows, the 8-9 game isn’t where you want to be in the NCAA Tournament, as if you win you’ll play the 1-seed in the region. When it comes to the NCAA Tournament seeding often doesn’t really matter–except when it comes to the difference between being a 7-seed and an 8-seed.
Tennessee would also love to have the double-bye, and could also use a quality win. The Volunteers’ season has been one where they haven’t been able to secure a lot of high-quality wins, something that makes their resume a bit odd. Certainly, revenge will also play somewhat of a role with how they were embarrassed against the short handed Gators earlier in the season.
In that matchup Florida had their best defensive game of the season and Tennessee had their worst offensive game of the Rick Barnes era. That isn’t even an exaggeration–the 0.7 points per possession Tennessee had in this game was the lowest the Volunteers have had under Barnes.
Statistics, partially the advanced stats, aren’t super kind to Tennessee when it comes to their ability to score the ball. In KenPom they are the 73rd ranked team in adjusted offensive efficiency, a number that has them as one of the lesser high major teams when it comes to scoring efficiency.
While the metrics may not be kind, you could make an argument that they are better than that number would suggest. They scored 79 points on Arkansas, 80 on Kansas, 82 against Kentucky, and 93 on South Carolina, all teams that are good defensively, and they did it efficiently. They have been prone to some very dry spells, such as the one they had against Florida, but they have shown they can pour on points against strong defensive performances.
Colin Castleton and Scottie Lewis being absent in the first meeting of these two teams had most of the press coverage but they weren’t the only quality players missing from that game. Tennessee was without Jaden Springer, a superstar freshman who brings their offense a lot of much needed juice that they were missing against the Gators. He has had six 20+ point games this season including a 30-piece against Georgia and is also a tremendous passer. He has had a number of 6 and 7 assist games, and his 24.9% assist rate is higher than anyone on Florida’s roster, as context. Springer also brings much-needed shooting to the Volunteers hitting 47% of his threes, albeit on low volume. He’s likely nowhere near the quality of shooter that percentage would suggest, but he’s still more than capable of knocking down shots when left open. Springer getting back into Tennessee’s roster has vastly improved their offense and he will be a key player Florida needs to be aware of.
Standing at 6’4” Springer is also another long perimeter player on a Tennessee team that’s full of length. No one in the Volunteers rotation stands under 6’3” and they have a constant barrage of long, talented wings like Victor Bailey, Keon Johnson, Josiah Jordan-James, Jaden Springer, and Yves Pons that are usually physically imposing whoever they are matched up against. This didn’t provide as much of an issue for Florida in the first meeting as could be expected, but the Gators are playing a lot smaller on the perimeter these days and that could be a problem. In recent weeks the Gators have played long stretches with Tyree Appleby and Noah Locke playing next to each other and whenever those players are on the floor together Tennessee might look to attack. The Volunteers love to attack size mismatches on the inside, particularly with their flex offense that uses cross screens right in front of the hoop to force switches and get deep post touches, and Florida’s smaller perimeter is vulnerable to that.
One Florida player with a bit of length that had his best game of the season against Tennessee is Niels Lane. The New Jersey freshman had hardly played leading into the Tennessee game but with Scottie Lewis out he got into the mix as a 6’5” player who could hang with the Volunteers’ length. He ended up playing 19 minutes, contributing 6 points and 5 rebounds while providing quality on the defensive end, particularly by locking up Victor Bailey who had his worst game of the season shooting 1-12 from the field.
How was his tremendous performance against Tennessee followed up? With him not seeing the floor in 6 of the next 9 games and only 2 minutes in each of the 3 games he did get in. For whatever reason he doesn’t have the full trust of the coaching staff, but with him playing so well against Tennessee already this season perhaps he gets another opportunity in this one.
Something unique about Tennessee is how much they play through the post and how efficient they are on post up plays. Senior John Fulkerson is as savvy a vetern center as there is in the SEC and he’s tremendous at scoring one on one or making the correct read when he needs to pass out. Florida just came off a loss against Missouri where they did not handle the post up well at all. Jeremiah Tilmon picked apart Florida’s defense with his ability to score on the block, and he was even more deadly when the Gators tried to double team. When Florida sent a second defender to double it was awfully passive and soft, and it allowed Tilmon to find open shooters and cutters. If they choose to continue to double team in the post they will need to be much more decisive and make it much harder for players to make reads with the second defender coming.
For Florida, they should do whatever possible to ride the hot hand of Tre Mann. He’s playing his best basketball of the season right now coming off two straight 21-point performances in which he shot an efficient 7-11 and 9-11. With those numbers–the Gators would be well served in cranking up his usage a great deal. Florida has gotten in trouble with players like Noah Locke and Scottie Lewis running pick and rolls and with Tre Mann on the floor…there probably should be anyone other than him initiating these plays. He’s a lethal scorer who is on a hot streak and Florida’s best chance to win on Sunday could be for them to go through him with heavy volume.
This will be the regular season finale for a Florida campaign that has been nothing short of bizarre. There is still plenty of basketball to be played and they can do themselves a big favor by coming out and getting a quadrant-1 victory on Sunday that ensures a double-bye in the SEC Tournament as well as gives them a huge resume for their NCAA Tournament standing.