Florida’s second game against LSU will have a different feel than their first matchup as the momentum of both teams is at a seemingly different spot than late January when the teams met up in Baton Rouge. The Gators were coming off a week where they dominated Ole Miss and then boat raced an Auburn team that was getting Final Four buzz based on the start to their season. It was looking like Florida was going to have a shot at the SEC regular season banner after easily dispatching Auburn who was one of the favorites, but that isn’t the case now as the Gators’ accumulation of losses has put them three losses behind the leading Kentucky Wildcats and functionally out of the race.
LSU is also in a much different place than they were in the first matchup. The Tigers were riding a six-game winning streak (one that extended to 10 before it was snapped) and they were looking like a threat nationally. This time around they look like a team in a bit of a tailspin. They’ve lost four of their last six, including a 9-point loss to Vanderbilt that broke a two-season winless streak in the SEC for the Commodores. They likely won’t have the same swagger they did during their win streak but now they will likely have a desperation that they didn’t show earlier in the season when everything was going their way.
Wednesday’s game has some big implications in the SEC standings. LSU sits in second place at 10-4, but they are two games back of leading Kentucky. They’ll definitely want to stay in touch for an outside chance of catching them, and it’s also worth noting that they are tied at 10-4 with Auburn who will be ready to jump them. The Gators are right behind at 9-5 and if they were able to get a win it would make the race for second extremely interesting.
As much as they would likely never admit it, more than the SEC standings the Gators have to be focused on their NCAA Tournament resume. It’s looking like the Gators will almost certainly have a top-4 seed in the SEC Tournament and anywhere in that position would give them at least one bye and there isn’t a team they would be particularly scared to play so it’s not like they’ll be trying to set up a particular matchup. While their SEC standing is relatively solid, their NCAA Tournament position is not. The Gators are projected to be in the field by just about every bracketologist but currently they are in a precarious 8-10 seed scenario, one that they would desperately like to improve. A win over LSU would be a pleasant boost to their body of work, so they’ll be focused on Wednesday.
Last Matchup Recap
In Baton Rouge the Gators fell just short in a 84-82 thriller. LSU had a double-digit lead amassed late in the second half before the Gators stormed back and nearly sent the game into overtime. An immaculate baseline out of bounds set freed of Keyontae Johnson for a game-tying layup at the buzzer but the ball wasn’t quite out of his hands when the horn sounded. Senior guard Skylar Mays was fantastic on both sides of the floor, and LSU’s potent offense was demonstrated with six of their players reaching double digits in scoring. Nembhard led the way for Florida with 15 points and 10 assists in an impressive double-double, but the overall storyline for the Gators was that they struggled to stop LSU’s offense and they had one of their frustrating dry spells offensively that allowed the Tigers to get an 11-point lead late in the game that was too much to overcome.
Tough To Guard
LSU is currently third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Trailing Gonzaga and Dayton, that makes the Tigers the highest rated power five team and that speaks to just how impressive they have been offensively. What makes their offense so interesting is that they aren’t a great shooting ball club. Nowadays when people think of high-powered offenses they think of run-and-gun attacks that bomb countless shots from behind the arc, but LSU is different. All of their actions are geared towards getting players the ball near the hoop and they’ve been spectacular at it. Shooting 54.9% from two-point range they have hammered teams inside with their superior size and athleticism and it has been exceedingly difficult for any team to stop it. One of the major benefits of their style is that because they don’t rely on high volumes of jump shots they are much more consistent than a team that runs hot or cold based on whether threes are falling. Teams can always get cold from behind the arc but it’s less common to go cold on layups and LSU’s constant attacks at the rim have made for a clockwork-like offense that always seems to show up. For that reason the Gators will need to be ready to defend for 40 minutes and be ready for an LSU offensive playbook that is as large as anyone’s in the SEC. They’ll run a lot of set plays which makes them tough to prepare for, but you almost always know the goal of the set. It’s to get someone like Skylar Mays or Javonte Smart barreling towards the hoop, or it’s to get a switch before dumping it down to Trendon Watford or Darius Days to finish inside.
Luckily, the Gators have been playing improved defense as of late after starting the SEC season fairly porous. They completely suffocated Vanderbilt at the Billy Donovan court naming night and then slowed down a high-octane Arkansas attack. In their most recent game against Kentucky they held the Wildcats under a point per possession for most of the game and the only reason they climbed above that benchmark was due to necessary late game fouling. While Arkansas and Kentucky were good defensive challenges, neither of those teams are as good as LSU and this will be a massive test.
One-Sided
Maybe it’s because they spend most of their practice time working on offense but the Tigers have been atrocious on their side of the court. Poor showings defensively in multiple SEC games have destroyed their numbers and they are now down to 178th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, tucked safely between two Colonial Athletic Association teams in Hofstra and Northeastern. Considering they have incredible athleticism and tremendous length their inability to guard is shocking. They’ve allowed at least 78 points in each of their last games, punctuated by their most recent game where despite winning they allowed 80 to the 145th offensively ranked South Carolina.
For that reason the Gators will need to punish them with their offense. They are coming off a game where their offense sputtered against Kentucky and they’ll have to find a fresh way to attack against LSU. One of the reasons they were stuck spinning their tires against Kentucky’s defense was that their pick and roll attack was completely neutralized and without a way to get Andrew Nembhard into the paint where he could distribute the Gators were stuck searching for any semblance of offense.
LSU’s defense has struggled in containing the pick and roll and if the Gators are wise they’ll use a steady diet of it. They’re only in the 22nd percentile nationally when it comes to pick and roll defense and that has been the start of a lot of breakdowns. When the ball gets into the paint against LSU’s defense they will aggressively help down to protect the hoop and when that happens Florida will need to be prepared to make the extra pass for a shooter to hit the open jimmy or attack a closeout and further scramble the Tigers’ defense. An indication of how befuddled LSU can get is the fact that they are one of the worst teams in the country at defending cuts, suggesting they can lose players away from the ball as they frantically try to help on ball handlers. If Florida’s off-ball players can be active and search for offense by moving their feet and getting into space they should have success.
Player To Watch
One of college basketball’s most balanced offensive attacks comes from LSU as they have five players averaging over 12 points per game but despite the depth, Skylar Mays stands alone as the biggest threat. He’s averaging 16.4 points and 3.3 assists per game, taking a lot of the ball handling duties despite the fact that he’s not a true point guard and is more of a scoring wing. At 6’4” and 205 pounds he’s a big player to be running an offense and he plays with a large dose of toughness and physicality, often bulling over smaller guards on his way to the rim. Through his first three seasons in Baton Rouge the one hole is his game was shooting, but now as a senior he has found the touch and has been a more than serviceable 36% from deep meaning teams definitely have to be aware of him behind the arc. While he’s an excellent offensive player, he’s just as good defensively. Yes, the Tigers are a horrible team defensively and perhaps that should change the perception of Mays as a stopper but when you watch them play their difficulties aren’t his fault. He did an excellent job on Nembhard for most of the game when the two teams first faced and it was later in the second half when Javonte Smart started guarding Nembhard where he started to go off and will the Gators back into the game. While he’s a strong defender the concern will more so be with him as an offensive initiator and if the Gators can slow him down they might be able to lessen the effectiveness of one of the best offenses in the country.
Keys To The Game
In a lot of Florida’s losses this season they have had a stretch, usually in the second half, where they go between 4-7 minutes without scoring and it puts them in a hole too deep to climb out of. That was the case against Kentucky, it was a case in their most recent loss prior to that against Ole Miss, it was the case the last time Florida met LSU, and unfortunately it’s been the case in some of their other losses as well. If not for these droughts it’s likely they would have won a few of their games that turned into some of the most frustrating losses and their entire season could have looked different. Obviously, avoiding another drought like this will have to be a key for the Gators. Whether it’s having some of their best set plays saved for a possible drought or it’s using timeouts earlier than Coach White normally does to stop a negative run, the Gators have to do something to stay out of long slides that stretch between TV stoppages and ruin their opportunities to win. That’s easier said than done and it’s clearly a major issue considering it has happened on multiple occasions this year but it’s worth noting that if they can keep out of a skid like that they’ll be in great shape against the Tigers.
Another key area to watch is how Florida defends and tries to slow down LSU’s attack. Since the previous matchup the Gators have started to experiment with a few different zone looks, particularly a 3-2 zone that has confused some of their opponents. A lot of teams, including the Gators, haven’t had success trying to stop LSU with man defense and mixing in some zone could be a great way to change the tempo of the game. One thing that would support the idea of playing some 3-2 is that one of the vulnerabilities of that look is giving up three-pointers but LSU isn’t a great shooting team, ranking 244th in the country at 31.9%. Skylar Mays is really the only three-point shooting threat the Gators are going to be really worried about and if they can key in on him while playing the zone they will likely be okay with other Tigers shooting.
If Florida can take advantage of LSU’s struggling defense and slow them down on enough possessions offensively they should have a great chance to win and it would be a huge victory in the standings and for their NCAA Tournament resume. The second game of a series is always interesting in the SEC and this should be an outstanding matchup.