Predicting Opponent RPI: Florida Gators basketball

Analytics have taken over the game of college basketball. It’s true, and even though that sentence may have come across as menacing, I think that in a lot of ways, it’s a good thing. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is open about their use of formulas such as RPI, Sagarin, BPI, strength of schedule and KenPom (my personal favorite, which you will hear me reference many times throughout the season) and these have been the deciding factor in whether or not a team makes the big dance, as well as the seed that the attendees get. Though Florida didn’t have as many signature wins as they’d like, the fact that they were #8 in RPI, #7 in strength of schedule, and #5 in KenPom was the reason they were given a good seed and the chance to play the opening weekend in Orlando.

With utmost importance being placed on these metrics, I thought I would look at all Florida’s out of conference games in an attempt to predict where the Gators will land in these key numbers.

Opponent: Gardner-Webb
The Runnin’ Bulldogs belong to the Big South Conference, a league that is historically near the bottom in conference rankings within college basketball. Gardner-Webb will like probably finish somewhere between 4-7 in the league, which should rank them something like #232 in RPI. Not a sexy game for the Gators, but starting off against a weaker team is a solid tactic, and every team in the high-major leagues plays some weak non-conference games, so this is nothing out of the ordinary.
RPI Impact: Negative

Opponent: North Florida
Only beginning their transition to Division-1 basketball in 2005, the Ospreys have given the Gators some fun games in the past playing a run-and-gun, 3-point barrage style of play. Unfortunately, North Florida is a team taking a step back in a league that was quite weak a year ago. They should finish around #295 in the RPI.
RPI Impact: Negative

Opponent: New Hampshire
The non-conference schedule starts to ramp up with this one. The America East conference is looking like a strong mid-major featuring a very talented Vermont team, and New Hampshire has a good shot at finishing in the top 3. This would give them an RPI of about #136, which is a nice place for a non-conference opponent to be when you have lots of other tough games in the schedule.
RPI Impact: Neutral

PK80
Opponent: Stanford
Don’t look now, but I think this is the year the SEC overtakes the PAC-12 in basketball. Getting a look at Stanford will be a nice test for the Gators, and will be a chance to get a big win for the SEC. I predict Stanford to finish 6th in the PAC-12, giving them an RPI of #72.
RPI Impact: Positive

PK80 Invitational
Game 3: Ohio State or Gonzaga
Game 4: Duke, Portland State, Butler, or Texas
The opportunity at this tournament to get some quality wins and help out the metrics are extremely high. Even if the Gators suffer an upset loss early they will still get a nice RPI boost from the teams they see, but if they win through and play teams like Gonzaga and Duke they will be set up extremely well for the season.
RPI Boost: From quite positive to EXTREMELY positive

Opponent: Florida State
In addition to always being a great rivalry game, the regular matchup with the Seminoles has been a great way for the Gators to routinely play ACC competition. Losing many key pieces FSU is going to be in a bit of a rebuilding year, but them finishing 10th or 11th in what is still the best conference in college hoops means their RPI will be approximately #74
RPI Impact: Positive

Opponent: Loyola-Chicago
With Wichita State leaving the Missouri Valley conference, teams like Loyola-Chicago that were forever in their shadow now have an opportunity to win the league. Last season Illinois State proved that a team other then the Shockers could finish in the top 50 RPI, and Loyola-Chicago could do that this season. They will be right in the mix to win the conference, and that means this could be a sneaky good game for the Gators. They won’t quite crack the top 50, but I predict they will finish #61 in the RPI.
RPI Impact: More positive then you would think

Opponent: Cincinnati
After several seasons being an underrated team, the Bearcats have stormed onto the scene with a #12 ranking in the preseason AP Poll. I think they are the real deal, and this will be a great test for the Gators, especially in December on a neutral court. This is a quality win that would be awesome for the Gators to pick up, as I think Cincinnati will end up #16 in the RPI.
RPI Impact: Really great

Opponent: Clemson
Another neutral site game and another chance to knock off an ACC foe. SEC fans will definitely be cheering on the Gators from afar as the SEC tries to show the ACC they are on the same level. Clemson should finish similar to Florida State this year, meaning I will predict them to be #70 in RPI.
RPI Impact: Solid

Opponent: James Madison
The Colonial Athletic Conference is one of the most underrated leagues in the country. James Madison will have the chance to prove themselves in tough league games against Charleston and UNC Wilmington, and a win against the Dukes could prove to really be a nice piece in the Gators’ non-conference slate. I predict James Madison will be #126 in the RPI.
RPI Impact: Neutral

Opponent: Incarnate Word
Returning several starters from last season, the Cardinals could make some noise in the Southland. A top 5 finish could put them at #190 in the RPI, wrapping up the Gators pre-conference games nicely.
RPI Impact: Just barely negative

Opponent: Baylor
The Big 12-SEC Challenge has become a treat to watch every year, and the Gators-Bears matchup will be one of the best games on the docket. Sporting one of the best point guards in the country in Manu Lecomte, Baylor should finish in top 6 in the Big 12, and I predict that will be good enough for them to be #44 in the RPI.
RPI Impact: Really positive

Looking at all these projected finishes of opponents and comparing it to last year’s numbers, Florida is in really good shape. I actually think this is a tougher schedule then last seasons’, and that doesn’t even factor in that the SEC is much stronger and will help their metrics even more. Because of these factors, I believe the Gators will finish in the top 7 in both RPI and SOS, which will be looked on with great pleasure by the selection committee come March. Understanding these metrics and the role they play can be a little on the nerdy side, but it is important if you have interest in what seed the Gators will end up with in the Tournament. If you find yourself not caring, I can summarize it for you—in my opinion the Gators made a great schedule, and have put themselves in the best position to get the best possible seed in the Tournament and to me, that is a scheduling success.

What do you think of the Gators’ non-conference schedule? Too easy, too hard, or just right? Leave a comment here, or post on the Gator Country forums.