Selection Sunday finally came and the Gators heard their standing–a #7 seed slated to play #10 Virginia Tech.
Florida’s #7 seed may have come as a surprise, and only a few prognosticators had them slotted in that position with most having them as 8, 9, or even 10. The various number of games played between teams and an abbreviated non-conference season made predicting a bracket more difficult than ever this season and in Florida’s case they can be happy most people were wrong.
Often, there isn’t a massive difference between seeds in one way or another and there isn’t a massive advantage between, say, a #3 seed and a #4 seed. However, there is a massive difference between being a #7 seed and being an #8 or #9, and that’s because the winner of the 8-9 game goes on to play the #1 seed in round two. Instead things broke pretty well for the Gators. The winner of their first round game is likely to play #2 Ohio State (though don’t sleep on #15 Oral Roberts who are tremendous), and the #3 seed in the region is Arkansas who the Gators have already played against in a game where they played really well for 30 minutes.
While the possible groundwork for the Gators to go a Cinderella run is there, they’ve first got to focus on Virginia Tech, a team that spent much of the season ranked in the teens in the AP Poll before sliding out due to a questionable loss followed by an extended COVID pause.
In fact, COVID pauses have played quite a large role in Virginia Tech’s season, and if you’re looking for an advantage in Florida’s favor, there could be one here. You see, Virginia Tech has only played three games in the last five and a half weeks. On February 6th, they edged out Miami in an overtime thriller, and then entered a pause that lasted nearly three weeks. We have seen with multiple teams this season, including Florida, that these pauses can cause havoc and Virginia Tech had to deal with that. In their first game back on February 23rd they predictably were sloppy and out of shape, getting well-handled by Georgia Tech. They then played Wake Forest (a blowout 40-point win) later that week, and then entered another break with cancelled games, this time just under two weeks. Their return following that hiatus was right into the ACC Tournament where they played a red-hot North Carolina team and, in shaking off the rust, ended up losing a tightly contested game.
COVID pauses can be devastating and Virginia Tech has had to deal with two extremely untimely pauses at about the worst possible points of the season. Now, they’re at a point where they have only played a few games in two months, and that’s a tough way to enter the NCAA Tournament.
When you look at their season on a whole, Virginia Tech has been a team that has taken care of business. They don’t have awful losses, with their worst defeat coming at the hands of Pittsburgh in ACC play. That’s definitely an unfortunate loss for the Hokies, but not an inexcusable one on the road against a conference opponent.
They also have a pair of very nice wins, starting with a neutral site win over a full strength Villanova team. They also took care of Virginia at home, making that two wins over teams ranked significantly higher than any team the Gators have beat, as a reference point. Their resume isn’t loaded with marquee wins, but they have a few solid ones and no awful losses to bring them down. In the eyes of many the #10 seed for Virginia Tech was a bit of a sign of disrespect, and they’re going to be a lot better than most teams you would see in that spot.
Head coach Mike Young is in his second season in Blacksburg after a lengthy 17 year run as the leader of Wofford. Following a season where he got his Terriers a #7 seed and a win in the Big Dance, Virginia Tech brought him in to take over for Buzz Williams after he left for Texas A&M.
Young had a reputation as a savvy offensive coach and so far, he’s living up to that billing. He might not have the reputation of some of the bigger-name offensive coaches in the country but believe me, he is just as good if not better than many of big names when it comes to drawing up and having his team execute offense.
Here are a few sets he loves to run:
Let me tell you from the bottom of my heart, I LOVE Mike Young’s offense at Virginia Tech. pic.twitter.com/jSEZWNtHmu
— Eric Fawcett (@Efawcett7) March 14, 2021
Young’s offense is diverse, complex, and objectively beautiful. Watching his teams play offense is an encyclopedic look at modern offensive basketball schemes, running multiple of the actions that are huge in current NBA and high level european basketball.
Most notably, you’ll see Virginia Tech loves to run a ball screen into rip, or back screen, play. Watch as the hokies set up like they’re running a typical ball screen, but they’re actually looking to get that back screen for an easy bucket on the inside.
In fact, that’s a lot of what Virginia Tech does offensively. Everything they do has layers–they aren’t simple plays with one or two steps, they are multiple actions on top of actions with multiple outs. His play call sheet is curated like a wine list, and they have numerous actions and counter actions that can dizzy a defense.
In that clip you’ll also see Virginia Tech using post punches, ricky screens, wide pins, split cuts, and zoom screens. It’s everything you’re used to seeing from the top coaches in the NBA and Europe, but boiled down into the college game where they are the toughest scout on any opponent’s schedule.
As mentioned before, if there is any one action the Gators have to be prepared for it’s the ball screen into rip actions they run so, so well. You’ll see in that clip that play is featured multiple times. When Virginia Tech goes to set a ball screen don’t watch that primary action–look at what’s happening near the baseline as a Hokie goes to set a crafty back screen that turns into a clear layup.
You’ll be able to tell pretty quickly how well Florida scouted Virginia Tech because it’s a key play in their offense, and one the Gators should be well aware of even if it’s tough to stop.
Mike Young is basketball’s picasso on a clipboard, but a coach can only do so much. He’s got to have the dudes who can execute, and Virginia Tech has them.
The first player you need to be aware of is 6’9”, 235 pound Keve Aluma. He’s a great story, a player who didn’t have high major interest leading to him ending up at Wofford. He was a solid player at Wofford in two years, but not much more than a capable Southern Conference starter. Mike Young brought him over to Virginia Tech when he took the job and for whatever reason, everything clicked. He had a monster junior season averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds, and he is capable of doing a whole lot on the floor. Aluma has a speed advantage on a lot of the centers he goes against, and he’s got the strength to overpower anyone smaller who might get switched onto him. He’s a foul drawing ninja, he’s great on the offensive glass, and oh yeah–he added a 35% three-point stroke to his game this season.
He’s definitely the most intimidating player on the Hokies, but what makes that team special is the fact that they aren’t super reliant on one or two players, they spread the ball around and dominate opponents with their structure and execution. You saw some of their beautiful half court sets prior, and guards Tyrece Radford and Naheim Alleyne are a huge part of making them happen. Radford is a physical 6’3” guard who is a bit of a throwback to power basketball of the 80’s and 90’s. He can get to the hoop and get a bucket, but he, almost literally, never shoots. He only attempted one three per game, a rarity for any guard in modern basketball, and hit 32% of his shots. Only when wide open will he let it fly, and the Gators will have to be aware of that. Alleyne on the other hand is a great shooter at 41%, though he’s not quite the distributor that Radford is.
While Virginia Tech isn’t a team who plays a lot through one player, senior Wabissa Bede is still the trusted point guard who brings the ball up and gets the Hokies into offensive actions. Like Radford he isn’t a shooter at all, a putrid 25% from behind the arc, but he’s a consummate floor general who gets the Hokies into actions and makes sure they are properly situated to run their stuff.
Justyn Mutts is a 6’7” power forward who you’d absolutely love if he wasn’t an opposing player in an NCAA Tournament game. He’s a perfect glue guy who plays in the trenches but also brings some offensive flash. Plenty of highlight reels have dunks from Mutts in the mix and he’s also an underrated passer.
Besides running some of the prettiest offenses in the country there are a few things that make Virginia Tech unique. For starters, when they have Wabissa Bede and Tyrece Radford next to each other, which they usually do for long stretches, they have one of the worst shooting backcourts in the country. That can be a tough way to win in modern basketball and while they have found a way to do so this season, the thought of them getting stuck offensively without a ton of shooting is a believable outcome.
Virginia Tech also plays extremely slow and won’t look to run in transition unless it’s off a steal or they have a very apparent numbers advantage. They run less in transition than any other high major basketball team, so running back in transition isn’t going to be a huge area of focus for the Gators. Knowing that, they’d be wise to go hard at the offensive glass. Colin Castleton, Anthony Duruji, and Scottie Lewis are a dynamic offensive rebounding trio when on the floor together and considering Virginia Tech doesn’t punish teams by pushing the ball in transition the Gators should be able to attack the glass at will without fear of getting exposed because of it.
With that being said, Virginia Tech has been a fantastic rebounding team this season currently 38th in the country on the defensive glass. They aren’t a very large or physically imposing team, but they use great positioning to be responsible on the glass and they’ve had a lot of success taking care of rebounding this season.
Defensively the Hokies played 100% of their possessions in man to man defense this season. Coming from Wofford you might have thought Mike Young was a guy who would use a good deal of zones but that hasn’t been the case at Virginia Tech as he has had good success running straight ahead man to man defense.
They like to pack it in a little bit, protecting the hoop being their number one priority. They’ve had good success with that style of defense as they’re one of the best paint protecting teams in the country, though the downside of that is that they do give up a lot of threes. The Gators are likely to have an opportunity to shoot jump shots against the Hokies and if some combination of Noah Locke, Tre Mann, Tyree Appleby, and Scottie Lewis is hitting shots then Florida’s offense could be unleashed.
Something the Hokies do really well defensively is change up their pick and roll coverage. Most college basketball teams will have one style of pick and roll defense that they stick to but Virginia Tech is much more like a pro level team in that they will drastically change up pick and roll coverage. In some games you’ll see them aggressively hedge, and in others you’ll see them play drop coverage. Recently, they have also used “shock and under” defense (a half hedge while staying glued to the screener) coverage that is popular in European leagues as of late. Considering how much they change up pick and roll coverage, it’s likely they’ll be playing drop against the Gators. For the last couple of weeks that style of defense has given the Gators all kinds of problems and considering how well scouted Virginia Tech is, you can bet on a steady diet of drop coverage.
For Florida, a key to the game is how they can slow down Virginia Tech’s offense. They run so much complex stuff that if Florida doesn’t know their scout intimately or do something off the beaten path to throw off the Hokies they could be in trouble. Florida might try to play their matchup 3-2 zone to take the Hokies out of their regular offense and that’s something they could have success with, particularly when both Wabissa Bede and Tyrece Radford are in the game. The fact that both of those players struggle so much to shoot makes playing a zone awfully enticing and for that reason I think the Gators are likely to dabble.
Another key for Florida will be how they try to score. They have been extremely one-dimensional offensively recently as it has been ball screen after ball screen and that hasn’t been working against good teams and considering how well coached Virginia Tech is, they’ll probably need to change something up. They’ll also have to think about how to get Colin Castleton more involved. He’ll have a sleight size advantage over Keve Aluma, and if aluma were to get into foul trouble that would swing the game quickly.
Of course, right now Florida basketball is all about Tre Mann who has been on fire offensively and the Gators need to figure out how they want to utilize him. Far too often in recent games he hasn’t been involved in the action while the Gators instead go to Tyree Appleby and Noah Locke and that simply shouldn’t be the case. Tre Mann is going to be the most talented player on the floor and every time the Gators run something for a guard that isn’t him, they’re downgrading their offense. Letting Mann shoot 20+ times should absolutely be something the Gators consider as he has been an offensive revolution recently.
This will be a battle between two teams that play two different styles. Florida plays fast, and Virginia Tech plays slow. The Gators like to run ball screen after ball screen, and the Hokies like to run more action away from the ball and move the rock quickly around the perimeter.
Styles make fights, and this should be a good one.