Sometimes when you lose a tough game it’s a matter of some tough luck–a few bad bounces, calls that go the other team’s way, or being on the wrong end of a hot shooting performance.
Other times, losses can magnify cracks in the foundation–areas of weakness where improvement is necessary.
On Wednesday the Gators played 36 tight minutes with Wake Forest but melted in the final possessions ultimately losing 82-71. In doing so, a problem that had been largely covered up so far this season came into the light:
The Gators have not executed well offensively this season.
Now, at first glance you might think this statement is downright crazy–or even outright wrong. Florida started the season with 93 points against Loyola MD and had 89, 89, and 86 points in a three-game winning streak. Even in a hard-fought loss to a talented Baylor team the Gators poured in 91 points.
You also could make the analytical argument and point to KenPom–the tool held in the highest esteem of college basketball. KenPom adjusts stats for quality of competition making for the most accurate look at teams–and Florida entered Wednesday’s game 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency which would categorize them as elite.
Here’s the thing–Florida’s offensive production has been efficient, but their execution hasn’t been particularly good. The reason they have been able to put up points, and even do so somewhat efficiently, is by offensive rebounding. The Gators were 3rd in the country in offensive rebounding before the Wake Forest game grabbing over 40% of their misses. This meant Florida got a massive amount of extra possessions allowing them to put up points. Plus, if you miss a shot and then get an offensive rebound and score from an analytics standpoint it only counts as one possession–resulting in efficient numbers for the Gators.
Florida’s elite offensive rebounding has papered over the fact that their offensive execution hasn’t been particularly good, and in fairness the poor first shot offense hasn’t mattered due to how many extra possessions they have gained from rebounding. However, when they don’t offensive rebound–suddenly you start to see how much work the offense needs.
Against Wake Forest the Gators only had 7 offensive rebounds, grabbing 20% of available missed shots. This is well below Florida’s average, about half of the offensive rebounds they’ve been getting, and even well below the national average. This lack of offensive rebounds exposed how the Gators shot 40% from the field, or more importantly, only 0.92 points per possession. Florida has had poor first shot offensive nights this season but they’ve largely covered it up with tremendous offensive rebounding performances, but when they don’t get all of those extra possessions–you get a night like the Wake Forest game.
In terms of raw offensive production (NOT adjusted for quality of competition) the Gators are 139th in points per possession. In terms of half court efficiency, they are 169th. That ranking will come as a surprise to people who see the amount of points the Gators are putting on the board, but it’s a look at what Florida’s offense is like when they aren’t able to get a ton of extra possessions on the glass. A further peek behind the curtains shows that the Gators are struggling to create open shots as 60% of their catch and shoot threes have been closely guarded, a lot more than the national average hovering around 45%. The transition game has been good to the Gators as 21% of their total shots have come on the break (one of the higher amounts in the country) but in terms of efficiency they are 133rd.
Efficiency is the name of the game in college basketball and in a lot of ways it doesn’t matter how the sausage is made–if you score efficiently, you will win. Doing it with a ton of offensive rebounding might not be pretty, but even a possession with 3 bricked shots and 3 offensive rebounds that ends in a putback layup is an efficient possession. However, being overly reliant on offensive rebounding means that you’re going to struggle when you have a night you aren’t able to grab those extra possessions and it also means you’re probably going to struggle at the end of games.
Think of SEC teams like Kentucky and Tennessee. Here are where those teams have ranked in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency in recent years:
2023 Tennessee: 64th
2022 Tennessee: 35th
2023 Kentucky: 17th
2022 Kentucky: 5th
These were elite teams with high SEC finishes and great seeds in the NCAA Tournament. If you remember watching those teams, you would have thought they struggled mightily offensively. Let’s take a look at where they ranked in terms of half court points per possession:
2023 Tennessee: 194th
2022 Tennessee: 158th
2023 Kentucky: 155th
2022 Kentucky: 57th
As you can see, these numbers aren’t great. How were they able to be so efficient despite the fact that they weren’t very good from a pure execution standpoint (with the exception of 2022 Kentucky)? Let’s take a look at their offensive rebounding rankings:
2023 Tennessee: 6th
2022 Tennessee: 46th
2023 Kentucky: 1st
2022 Kentucky: 4th
Ah, just as expected.
And how did the seasons end for these teams?
2023 Tennessee: Upset loss to Florida Atlantic in the third round
2022 Tennessee: Upset loss to Michigan in the second round
2023 Kentucky: Loss to Kansas State in the second round
2022 Kentucky: Upset loss to Saint Peter’s
In all of these games, the offense failed these teams. Historically, putting up huge offensive rebounding numbers and relying on them heavily for points has been a good recipe for success during the regular season, but when effort in the postseason cranks up and the offensive rebounds aren’t there a lack of ability to execute offensively starts to be extremely detrimental.
It is still early and the Gators have plenty of time to figure out how to execute in the half court but coming off a season where the Gators struggled (139th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, 224th in half court points per possession) there is reason to have some concern. Of course, the Gators have much more talent on their roster this year so it feels like there will be many more possible routes to an effective offense.
Even if the Gators don’t improve from an execution standpoint, their ability to bludgeon teams on the offensive glass is going to have immense value during the regular season. Offensive rebounding gives teams a floor to still be able to put up points when their offense is struggling, and every year there are teams that offensive rebound their way to good regular season records, and therefore NCAA Tournament berths. It might not be pretty, but the Gators have found a way to be solid on the backs of their effort on the glass and if they can figure out how to be an effective half court team they could be a force in the SEC.