When the news dropped that Keyontae Johnson had decided to return to Florida for his junior season fans rejoiced, and for good reason. Johnson was rather unquestionably the team’s most valuable player and most outstanding performer and his return means a lot of production is staying in house as opposed to walking out the door. He was the team’s leading scorer (14 points per game) and second leading rebounder (7.1 boards, only 0.4 behind Kerry Blackshear Jr.), and he did that while tying for second on the team in assists (1.6) and tying for the lead in steals (1.2). Clearly he had his fingerprints on every aspect of the game and not only was he involved in multiple aspects but he excelled in nearly every one of them. Clearly his return is huge for the Gators, but just how big are we talking? What type of impact does his return tangibly have on the trajectory of the 2020-21 season? Here are some statistics to help paint the picture.
Offense
Looking at Johnson’s 14 points per game it’s easy to see why his departure would leave a big hole in offensive production. Now that he’s back it’s likely that something similar to those 14 points will return, but something to think about is that not all points are created equally. What made Johnson’s points so valuable is the fact that he got them so efficiently shooting 54% from the field and 38% from three. That is excellent efficiency, and if those points had to be replaced by any player or combination of players it’s likely they wouldn’t be able to do it on anything close to as few shots as it took Johnson.
An interesting stat regarding Johnson’s sophomore campaign is that of the 401 offensive possessions he logged, only 9 of them were jump shots off the dribble. So many of Johnson’s shot attempts were catch and shoot threes (80), straight line drives off attacking closeouts (94), or from cuts off the ball where a teammate found him (44) and that made him an elite play finisher, something that is extremely valuable for an offense. That’s because when evaluating an individual player’s impact to a game you have to factor in opportunity cost. For example, some of the elite scorers in basketball are ball dominant pick and roll ball handlers, meaning the ball sticks in their hands for much of the game. Some of those players put up big point totals, but there is an opportunity cost. Big men aren’t getting fed, other players that might have skill with the ball are frozen out, and players that would have benefitted from other sets being run are taken out of the offense. In Johnson’s case, because he was a play finisher that didn’t need the ball in his hands, there wasn’t much of an opportunity cost to his offense. His individual scoring didn’t take away from the production of any other players on the team and that’s something that makes his efficient 14 points per game even more valuable.
Let’s go back to what we were talking about earlier—what it would have taken to replace Johnson’s point total, from a very functional standpoint. With a series of calculations you can find a player’s “points above replacement player,” something very helpful for a conversation like this. Essentially, we can take every shot that Johnson took and calculate what would happen if a league-average player took the identical shots.
In Johnson’s case he had a points above replacement of 4.4 per game. That’s a fantastic number, one that easily led the Gators. This number is a helpful one because it really gets to the point of how difficult it would have been to replace Johnson as if you even replaced him with an average offensive player the Gators would instantly be set back 4.4 points per game offensively. When you think of how many close games the Gators were in last year you know how devastating a 4.4 point offensive deficit would be.
There is also an intangible nature to Johnson’s offensive game. He’s an excellent passer, even though it isn’t something that’s reflected by his assist count since he isn’t in a playmaking role in the offense. He throws one of the best low post entry passes on the team and is surgical with his ability to hit cutters with the bounce pass, and his quick swings of the ball on the perimeter are pivotal to offensive success even when it’s not to a player in a scoring position.
When Florida’s offense was at it’s best Keyontae Johnson was a key part of it and his ability to score efficiently will make him one of the most valuable offensive players in the country next season.
Defense
There was much to like about Johnson’s game last season but if it’s possible for one element of his game to be underrated it might be his defense. His scoring and rebounding got most of the praise and lost in that was the fact he had the best defensive rating on the team while playing a switchable defensive forward position. Opponents were at a measly 0.75 points per possession when guarded by Johnson with his athleticism and length making it difficult to shoot over him or get by him with the dribble.
Perhaps most impressive is his rim protection despite being undersized for the position he was playing. Some people will look at his low block numbers (0.3 per game) and think he isn’t using his athleticism to contest shots at the rim but Johnson is a perfect example of why blocked shot numbers aren’t an accurate way of gauging rim protecting. A much better way is to look at field goal percentage allowed at the rim which accounts for the shots contested and the misses forced but a defensive player. In Johnson’s case he only allowed 31.8% at the rim, a magnificent number considering the nation’s average is just over 51% in this area.
That isn’t the only way Johnson has shown he can play bigger than his 6’5” frame defensively. Throughout the year opposing coaches saw Johnson playing power forward and thought they had a mismatch so they worked to get post up opportunities against him with bigger players, something that surely sounded like a good idea at the time. Unfortunately for them, they weren’t aware of just how stout a post defender Johnson is. Players only shot 35% when posting up against Johnson and his aggressive hands and long arms made him adept at stripping the ball and he forced turnovers on 26.5% of these possessions, meaning it was a pretty good chance posting up against Johnson was going to mean a turnover and not a bucket.
Johnson’s ability to play bigger than his frame would suggest while also having some of the quickest feet on the team made him a valuable defender that fit perfectly into what the coaching staff wanted to do defensively. One of the best indicators of his defensive impact are his on/off numbers that can help show some of his intangible impact that doesn’t show up in any individual number. When Johnson was on the floor the Gators allowed 0.93 points per possession and when he was off they allowed 1.03 points per possession, and considering he was almost always on the floor against the other team’s best players this number really helps show his defensive value.
Rebounding
In recent history the Gators have been a below average rebounding team particularly on the defensive end. They were already set to lose their best defensive rebounder in Kerry Blackshear Jr. who had a 22% defensive rebound rate but luckily Keyontae Johnson wasn’t too far behind at 20%. Johnson’s ability to defensively rebound the basketball is important because it allows the Gators to play him at the power forward spot and stay fast and versatile without getting completely demolished on the glass. They definitely still have their struggles at times even with Johnson in the game, but had he gone pro a team that already hurt on the defensive glass would have gotten a lot worse.
With Johnson on the floor the Gators had a net rebound rate of +4.3% (courtesy of Pivot Analysis), a number that on it’s own isn’t that impressive but is made more so by the fact that the Gators were outrebounded in a number of games this season. When he was off the floor that number dipped to +1.7%, so his individual impact on the glass working hard for box outs on the defensive end and attracting multiple bodies on the offensive glass. That 2.6 percent increase with Johnson on the floor might not sound like a lot but when you’re talking rebounding even fractions of a percent are a big deal due to the large number of available rebounds in a given basketball game.
One thing that’s interesting about Johnson’s rebounding numbers is that his individual offensive rebounding rate actually took a rather significant dip this past season from his freshman year from 9.4% (280th in the country) to 6.9%. At 6.9% he was still a good offensive rebounder but not that tremendous offensive rebounder that he was in his first year in Gainesville. Even though he didn’t end up getting a ton of O-boards himself his impact on missed shots was clearly felt and teams had to adjust to box him out. Florida’s offensive rebounding rate went up from 28.7% to 32.2% when he was on the floor, a relatively large jump. For reference on the national level, that’s essentially the Gators going from being the 152nd best offensive rebounding team in the country with him off the floor to the 46th best offensive rebounding team in the country with him on it. For a team that hasn’t rebounded particularly well, getting Johnson back for another year will really help.
Putting It All Together
When evaluating the individual impact of a player it’s always helpful to look at numbers that account for their production as weighted against a league-average player. It’s a fair and accurate way of looking at what a player brings to the table and it makes it easier to conceptualize what impact the loss of a player would have as it doesn’t just treat their production as if it totally vanished, it properly suggests that if a player left that they would be replaced by a league-average player.
A great way to gauge a player’s overall impact on a basketball game is box plus/minus. This is a great stat because it is a composite of two measures of a player’s production over a league-average player—offensive box/plus minus and defensive box plus/minus. Using these two stats you can look at a statistically accurate measure of how many points a player added or detracted to a team.
Most box plus/minus numbers are extracted to be a per 100 possessions number, but I’m going to use some of my special sauce here and make it more accurate by prorating it to Florida’s actual pace of play. By doing that we will get an even more authentic look at the value he brought to the Gators.
Using this box plus/minus number adjusted for the exact number of possessions Florida played this year, his number was +6.2 points per game added. If you were going to boil down Johnson’s value to the Gators into a single number, this 6.2 adjusted box plus/minus number is about as accurate as you’re going to get and is the important one to remember when thinking about his value.
Considering Florida has an average score margin of 5.9 points this season…that value of Johnson over a replacement player is humongous.
Needless to say, Johnson’s adjusted box plus/minus of 6.2 led the way for the Gators and clearly backs up something the eye test would suggest for most fans—he was Florida’s most valuable player. Nationally, he was 21st in the country in adjusted box plus/minus and using that number you can reasonably argue he was the 21st most valuable player in the country last year. That might sound like a bit of an exaggeration and suggesting as much would be totally fair, but it also speaks to just how good of a season he had and the company he belongs in. When you look at the players at the top of this list you’ll see familiar names that dominated college basketball—Xavier Tillman, Udoka Azubuike, Onyeka Okongwu, Malachi Flynn, Freddie Gillespie, and Obi Toppin among others. One familiar trait about almost all the players ahead of him in this ranking—they’re going to be gone next season. For the Gators to get a player back that was in this group of the most valuable players in college basketball is extremely exciting and is one of the reasons that Johnson is going to be rightfully placed on some of the preseason award lists.
Of course, all the numbers referenced are in this article are from what he accomplished last year and spoke to how valuable and irreplaceable he was to the Gators, but it didn’t even speak to the steps he’ll likely make in becoming an even better player. From his freshman to sophomore season he took a leap in nearly every statistical category and did it all while bettering his efficiency against great competition while not sacrificing any of the intangibles like playing tight defense and moving the ball unselfishly offensively. Pointing out his production and how much better he was than a replacement player points out something that’s incredibly comforting—even if he doesn’t make another big step and comes back the identical player, the Gators are getting one of the most valuable forwards in the country back. That isn’t to suggest that he won’t continue to further his game, as he almost certainly will come back an even better player, but his accomplishments as a sophomore were already remarkable and his return will be worth a massive amount.
Like, say, at least 6.2 added points of value over any replacement player.
Or, if you prefer, you could simply say his return is worth a ton.