When Florida got news that star center Colin Castleton wouldn’t be available for Mississippi State due to a shoulder injury, it was concerning.
When Mike White said after the game that the injury was significant, it was terrifying.
Castleton has been putting together an outstanding senior season averaging 15.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks, and he’s the key to both Florida’s offensive and defensive schemes. Luckily the Gators were able to step up in Castleton’s absence against the Bulldogs playing some of their most inspired basketball of the season and coming away with a convincing win.
Is that something the Gators will be able to maintain, or was that a one-off performance of a few players digging deep to make up for the loss of a star?
When a team loses a player to injury, the first place I look is analytics tool BartTorvik. That’s because BartTorvik has a very interesting tool called “Estimate Effect Of Losing A Player.” Simply put, you can look at where BartTorvik has a team ranked regularly, and you can eliminate a player from the roster due to injury and get an estimate of where that team would rank without him.
Bart himself jokes that the analysis is “dubious,” but the theory and the work he has done to quantify the effect of missing a player is fairly expansive. Of course, this should be taken with a grain of salt, or several, but it gives an interesting look to the importance of a single player.
With Colin Castleton in the lineup, BartTorvik has the Gators as the 29th best team in the country.
With Castleton out to injury, he has the Gators 48th in the country.
Truthfully, that number hit me like a ton of bricks. I have been using this tool for years, and am often surprised at how little a single player’s loss changes the complexion of a team. For a Gators specific example, I remember being shocked last year at plugging Keyontae Johnson’s loss into the tool and only seeing the Gators drop 9 spots–if that gives you some indication.
Of course, there is no way of knowing how Florida’s season would have gone if they had Johnson, but the fact the Gators were still able to make the NCAA Tournament as a 7-seed suggests that the tool had a pretty good guess with that one.
Castleton’s injury suggesting the Gators would drop 19 spots was astounding, and somewhat horrifying. But again–this is an algorithmic guess, and not something that needs to be taken as gospel. Digging deeper into the tool and looking through the numbers you can see pretty quickly why the formula would think the Gators were in serious trouble.
Just like the eye test and box score numbers, the advanced stats suggest that Castleton has been tremendous. Nothing shocking there.
Next, you look at the players who Florida also has at the center position–Jason Jitoboh and Tuon Gatkek. Their numbers, according to BartTorvik, are respectfully…not very good. To summarize, BartTorvik’s numbers suggest both are well below average SEC caliber. Take that however you would like, and I’m sure many of you would argue that at least one of these players has performed above that standard, but the numbers are what they are. Because of that, you can see pretty quickly why replacing an All-SEC center with players that project to be lower than SEC average players would very quickly change a team’s outlook.
Both Jitoboh and Gatkek had only had small segments of minutes here and there prior to the Mississippi State game where they both gave good performances. Both were positive in the plus minus, against a team that’s better than SEC average, so you could reasonably suggest that they can give production better than what the numbers would suggest. Of course, as these players get more minutes the data will adjust and give a more accurate picture to their outlook and their impact on the Gators.
After looking at BartTorvik, I next look at a stat called “Net Rating Differential.”
Net rating differential is the team’s net rating (a number encompassing offensive and defensive efficiency) when a player is on the floor versus off the floor.
With Castleton on the floor the Gators have a +19 net rating, which is fantastic. A +19 net rating for a team suggests that they are blowing out an opponent, so with Castleton on the court the Gators have been doing just that.
With Castleton off the floor, the Gators only have a +4 net rating. So, he’d have a Net Rating Differential of +15.
Up until last week, Castleton led the Gators in Net Rating Differential. After torching in the last three games Kowacie Reeves now has the lead with +20, but his sample size is much less than Castleton’s so functionally you can say Castleton leads the Gators in Net Rating Differential.
Overall this season the Gators have a +14 net rating (of course, aided a bit by blowing out mid-major competition). Now remember that without Castleton on the floor the Gators are only +4. That number speaks to how valuable Castleton has been, and is one of the concerning numbers regarding his absence.
Functionally speaking, of the things that will change the most with Castleton out is the offense. So much of Florida’s offense has gone through Castleton in the post, and it’s unlikely they’ll choose to run those same actions for Jitoboh or Gatkek, at least with the same volume. 13.5% of Florida’s offense has been through the post so far this season, and that number is set to seriously dip.
When running plays through a Castleton post up the Gators are getting 1.05 points per possession. That’s higher than their points per possession in pick and roll (0.92), transition (0.96) and guarded catch and shoot attempts (0.93), making it one of their most efficient offensive options. Against Mississippi State the Gators ran a few post ups for Jitoboh and attempted a few times to get it to Gatkek, but the efficiency just isn’t going to be there. So far Jitoboh has been very poor on post ups (0.53 points per possession) and Gatkek is yet to attempt one. For that reason, Florida’s offense will definitely have to pivot largely to other options.
Castleton also had a pretty major impact on the defensive end, particularly around the rim with his shot blocking. His 2.8 blocks per game is one of the best marks in the country, but it’s not just the shots he gets his hands on that are impacted. Opponents are shooting only 25% at the rim when contested by Castleton, and considering the national average for finishing around the rim is around 55%, Castleton has been taking a whole lot of opponent points off the board.
Really, Jitoboh and Gatkek haven’t had enough reps to show what they can be as rim protectors. Jitoboh might not be the fastest recovery shot blocker, but if he gets in the way of a driver his massive frame is going to wall off the rim in a way few players in the country can do. He’s also got good length at 6’11”, so he should be an adequate rim protector.
Gatkek is much more of a wildcard in this area. He’s got downright comical length with a reported 7’6” wingspan, and that should allow him to get his hands on a lot of shots. However, any physical driver is going to be able to bulldoze Gatkek out of his way, and Gatkek may be able to recover with his length at times but also will give up layups.
To really see how much of an impact missing Castleton will have, we’ll have to wait and see in these next couple of games. There is no timetable for his return, and shoulder injuries aren’t something that players usually bounce back from quickly. Some of the numbers suggest the Gators are in a whole lot of trouble without him but there are players on Florida’s roster ready to prove they can fill the hole. It all starts on Saturday against Vanderbilt.