How Concerning Are Xaivian Lee’s Shooting Struggles?

The Florida Gators are off to a 4-1 start, but not everything is sunshine and rainbows.

Their one loss certainly wasn’t a bad one–falling to an Arizona team that in a few short weeks has looked like a team that will compete for a Final Four–but even in the wins the Gators haven’t played a particularly crisp style of basketball on the offensive end. According to T-Rank, the Gators have been the 99th best offense in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is a small sample size and therefore that number should be taken with a grain of salt, but at the same time, no one has watched Florida’s offense and thought to themselves it was looking like a well oiled machine.

Something that has handcuffed the offense so far is the three-point shooting which to this point has completely betrayed the Gators with their 25.7% from behind the arc ranking 337th nationally. While there are several players whose poor shooting has contributed to this mark, none is more notable than Xaivian Lee who is shooting 6-38–15.8%.

Coming into Florida from Princeton, Lee was advertised as a shooter, and Florida’s staff thought he could create some of the big-shot ability of Walter Clayton. Through five games–that hasn’t exactly been the case. With 3-11 against Arizona being his “best” performance of the year so far he has only gotten worse, culminating in 1-10 against Florida State, 0-5 against Miami, and 0-4 against Merrimack. Clearly something is wrong–so what is it? And, could this have been predicted?

First of all, we need to talk about the very different role Lee is in at Florida versus at Princeton. At Princeton, Lee was a ball dominant guard who was initiating most sets and also ending most possessions with the ball in his hands where he could get to the stepback jumper that he was known for. Now at Florida he is playing more off the ball, playing alongside Boogie Fland. When Florida landed Lee it was likely they thought he would be in a true point guard position, but when Denzel Aberdeen chose to leave the Gators were in need of a marquee guard, and seemingly the best one available was another ball handler.

Functionally, this means very different shots for Lee. As much as everyone lumps all three-point shooting into a single category, not all three-point shots are created equally–namely, shots off the dribble versus catch and shoot situations. Most shooters are much better at one than the other, and most are better off the catch than off the dribble–with off the dribble shooters like Tre Mann and Walter Clayton having massive value both in the college game and with their pro potential. This was a big reason why people were high on Lee–he brought some of that off the dribble juice that could bail out a possession with a side step jumper that could find mesh. However, Lee is someone who not only didn’t take many catch and shoot attempts last year–he wasn’t very good at hitting them.

Last season at Princeton, Lee took just 46 catch and shoot jumpers. This year, he has already taken 22–so he is well on pace to crush that number. Here is the interesting part–on those catch and shoot threes last season he hit just 26% of them, making him a well below-average catch and shoot player. Well, now that he’s at Florida taking way more catch and shoot attempts–that deficiency is being exposed. He is shooting 18% on catch and shoot threes now, so while you would still expect that number to improve–it might be wishful thinking to think he’ll ever be an above average or possibly even average catch and shoot player. It’s also notable just how much Lee is struggling to shoot from the wings, both left and right. Last season from the wings Lee shot 3-25 on catch and shoot attempts, or 12%. This year, predictably, he is 1-16 on these attempts. If you are wondering if his shooting will turn around–the catch and shoot history should suggest there should be serious alarm bells ringing. Florida cast Lee into a role he has shown he is not equipped to do well in, and while some turnaround in this area should be expected–there maybe shouldn’t be a ton.

On the positive side of things, Lee seems to be due for some major positive regression when it comes to shooting off the dribble. Right now he is shooting 13% on his off the dribble threes, whereas last year he hit 41%. Not only did he hit 41% of his off the dribble threes, but he did it on 115 attempts. It’s definitely possible that Lee is able to return closer to that form, but will he get those opportunities? As mentioned previously, Lee does not have the ball in his hands as much as he did the year prior, and you can see many of his attempts now are coming off the catch instead of off the dribble.

Here’s the other thing to consider–when Lee was putting up 115 off the dribble threes, he was doing it for a team that was in a very different position than Florida was. Princeton was having a disappointing year that saw them finish 177th in KenPom after entering the season 74th–coming off a tremendous season the year prior where they finished 69th. He was able to get up a lot of these difficult attempts, but in less consequential games for a team that wasn’t contending in the Ivy League (despite the expectations that they would). Lee taking a bunch more of these attempts for the Gators may not be in the best interest of the team, and if he isn’t able to take a lot more of these attempts to regain his rhythm he may not have a chance to get back to putting up some of the highlights he was known for.

It is far too early to make any definitive statements on what Lee’s season is going to look like, and while there is clearly room for improvement and optimism there is also reason to have concern, and whether or not he is able to capture the magic will play a huge role in Florida’s ceiling, as the coaching staff banked heavily on this player that they believed would make a ton of shots.