With Florida’s NCAA Tournament hopes still up in the air the Gators get just what the doctor ordered, a chance to play one of the top teams in the sport and land a marquee win that would completely change the outlook of their NCAA Tournament resume.
On Saturday the Gators (19-11, 9-8 SEC) welcome the Kentucky Wildcats (24-6, 13-4 SEC) to town, giving them an opportunity at a huge win that they desperately need to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.
As things currently stand the Gators are on the wrong side of the bubble according to, well, pretty much every reputable bracketologist. For a team in that position the best thing that can happen is a game against a top level opponent and that’s just what Florida is getting with Kentucky. The Wildcats are currently 5th in the NET rankings and a win would be a gold star on Florida’s resume. Currently Florida’s resume has two negatives working towards it. First, a couple of bad losses–most notably the massive black eye that is the blowout loss at home to Texas Southern. Second, it’s the lack of quadrant-1 wins despite plenty of opportunities. Florida is currently 2-8 in quadrant-1 games, meaning they have had all kinds of opportunities for quality wins but have only been able to get two. While they will never be able to wipe away the bad loss, they can definitely add in more quality wins between the SEC Tournament and Saturday’s game–so it all starts with a quality performance against the Wildcats.
Kentucky and Florida have already battled once this season in Rupp where the Wildcats dominated the Gators 78-57. Florida was able to get the first bucket of the game to make it 2-0 but never led again and the second half saw the Wildcats outscore the Gators 45-29. Kentucky is a physical and athletic team and while the Gators were able to hang in for some of the first half it appears they got worn down and in the second which allowed the Wildcats to run wild.
Since Florida’s first matchup with Kentucky, things haven’t been going quite as well for the Wildcats. They’ve dropped games to Tennessee and Arkansas, which in fairness aren’t bad losses by any stretch, but they’ve played relatively close games with Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU–not showing the same overwhelming talent that was running through the SEC earlier in the season.
One of the huge storylines to the first meeting between the Gators and Wildcats was the utter dominance Kentucky showed on the glass. The Wildcats had 18 offensive rebounds while Florida had only 18 defensive rebounds, and even when the Gators played adequate first shot defense they weren’t able to end the possession with a rebound and it allowed Kentucky to get all kinds of second chance points. Despite scoring only 57 points Florida wasn’t actually that bad offensively, they just simply didn’t get to possess the ball very often as Kentucky had lengthy possessions extended by offensive rebounds.
Oscar Tshiebwe, arguably the frontrunner for player of the year in college basketball, had 10 offensive rebounds and 19 total rebounds. Florida, as a team, had 5 offensive rebounds and 25 total rebounds. Florida will have to do a better job of boxing Tshiebwe out and keeping him from nearly matching their rebounding total on his own, something that is potentially easier said than done since Tshiebwe has dominated pretty much every team he has seen on the glass. Looking back at his 10 offensive rebounds against Florida the first time around there were definitely times where he overpowered a quality box out by the Gators, but there were still plenty of times they simply forgot about him and allowed free runs to the rim and to the free basketball. If Florida bodies him up and still gives up an offensive rebound they can live with it, but what they simply can’t have is arguably the best offensive rebounder college basketball has seen in a decade to go uncontested to the offensive glass.
Florida is entering Saturday’s game 335th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Far worse offensive rebounding teams than Kentucky have dominated them on the glass, so rebounding is a huge point of emphasis in this game.
Unfortunately for Florida, Kentucky might be an even more dangerous team on the glass this time around than in the first meeting. Jacob Toppin didn’t play for the Wildcats in the first meeting against the Gators but he has started getting a lot more minutes, and at 6’9” he brings the ‘Cats even more length at the power forward spot than 6’7” Keion Brooks who played most of those minutes in that first contest. Toppin is a role player who knows what his job is and he defends, runs the floor, and rebounds, bringing relentless energy and contributing to Kentucky’s gameplan of wearing out opponents.
When you think about Kentucky the first things to come to mind might be athleticism and physicality which they definitely have, but a different element to this team has been sharpshooter Kellen Grady who gashed the Gators for 15 points in the earlier meeting. He had four threes early in the game which allowed Kentucky to gain a comfortable lead that they simply had to nurse the rest of the game and Florida needs to find a way to defend the baseline screens Kentucky sets for him much better than they did the first time around where they lost him for wide open corner threes. Grady, a Davidson transfer, is hitting 43% from behind the arc this season and when he starts hitting it can feel like Kentucky is unstoppable.
If there is one element of this meeting that the Gators can feel better about than the first time around it’s having Tyree Appleby who left the game only 8 minutes in with an injury. The Gators ended up having to play Brandon McKissic and Myreon Jones at point for the rest of the game and those two weren’t completely equipped to handle Kentucky’s intense perimeter pressure. Fast forward to now and Appleby is playing excellent basketball averaging 20 points and 4 assists over Florida’s last four games. He has been a key element in each of Florida’s big wins this season and he has always had the ability to step up in a huge game, and Saturday’s meeting with the Wildcats is just that. With the Gators not having a true backup point guard this season things haven’t gone well without Appleby on the floor and him getting to play a full game could make this game’s outcome much different than the first.
Another potential x-factor for the Gators is CJ Felder who isn’t fully healthy but may be in for a significant role against Kentucky. He played 18 minutes in the first meeting and provided excellent defense and was one of only two Gators to have a positive +/- at +3 (Kowacie Reeves was +4). Anthony Duruji’s status for Saturday’s game is unknown, but even if he’s good to go Felder might be the better option to start and help battle with Kentucky on the interior.
This is a massive game for the Gators who would almost certainly find themselves on the right side of the bubble if they were able to get a win. A loss wouldn’t set them back particularly, unless it was a blowout like in the first meeting, but right now the Gators are simply running out of opportunities. Sure, this wouldn’t be a bad loss that would hurt their resume, but when the resume isn’t great to begin with the Gators need positive wins that boost their numbers in the eyes of the selection committee.
This game, the final SEC regular season game for the Gators, takes place Saturday, March 5th at 2 PM ET and will be televised on CBS.