Don’t look now, but the Kentucky Wildcats are looking like a really good team.
Of course, if you just went on how they looked against Florida in the first meeting of the season, you would have thought they were juggernauts. They dominated the Gators in pretty much every fashion of the game on their way to a 76-58 blowout win. Shortly after beating Florida, Kentucky went on to lose to Auburn and Georgia, showing what they really were as a team.
Now, it looks like the Wildcats have legitimately hit their stride which could mean trouble for when the Gators see them for Saturday’s game. They’re on a three game winning streak with their most recent win coming over Tennessee by a score of 70-55. Kentucky blasted Florida earlier in the year when they were playing their worst basketball of the season, so considering that they’re now looking solid, the Gators have to be concerned.
Still sitting at 8-13 on the season, Kentucky is well out of the NCAA Tournament picture from an at-large standpoint. Losing to Richmond, Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame in the non-conference as well as losses to Georgia and Auburn in SEC play have put them way out of the picture, but it doesn’t mean they still aren’t eyeing the Big Dance. Kentucky’s players have made it known that they think they can win the SEC Tournament, and to put themselves in the best position to do so they’re fighting with all they’re worth for every SEC win to put themselves in the best possible position in the bracket.
Kentucky is currently 8th in the SEC, tied with Missouri who is 7th but holds the tiebreaker. However, they’re only 1 behind Tennessee who is 5th in the loss column, meaning if Kentucky wins out and things in front of them change the Wildcats could somewhat likely finish as high as 5th, though there is plenty of chaos that could unfold in an SEC that is very tight.
Florida is currently 4th at 8-5, with Tennessee just behind them at 9-6 and Arkansas ahead of them at 10-4. Right now Florida’s most realistic outcome is likely to stay at 4 if they hold serve and take care of business where they should, something that surely wouldn’t bother them at all.
Of course, taking care of business in games the Gators are favored hasn’t been the easiest thing for them to do this season and the Wildcats on a hot streak are going to be a huge problem.
When Kentucky dominated the Gators in the first meeting of the season it was their ability to get into the paint at will that Florida had no answers for. Keion Brooks, Brandon Boston, and Davion Mintz were impossible for Florida to guard as they continuously got straight line drives to the hoop ending up with layups, fouls drawn, or kickouts to open shooters. Just Florida’s luck, Kentucky also had their runaway best three-point shooting game of the season hitting 46% of their threes. Kentucky is a below average three-point shooting team this season at 33%, and it’s likely they won’t have another game shooting that well this season.
That could play huge into Florida’s strategy on Saturday. Since the first meeting of the season, Florida has made some schematic changes in their man to man defense. Instead of pressuring passing lanes on the perimeter, the Gators have started to have players that are one pass away sit in the gaps a bit more to help on drive opportunities. Considering Florida lacks elite perimeter defenders that can clamp down one on one, they’ve need secondary players to dig down and stunt towards drivers to try to stop them in their tracks.
Playing this style of defense helps guard the paint more but one of the consequences of that is giving up more catch and shoot opportunities. This is something that the Gators will likely live with against Kentucky. The Wildcats have had more poor shooting nights than good, and even though Florida was on the wrong side of one of their strong shooting nights they’d probably be wise to play the percentages and try to take away the paint and live with some outside shots from the below-average shooters in blue.
Something else that will be interesting to watch is how Florida guards Kentucky in the post. The Wildcats play through post players more than just about any team in the country and it’s likely Florida will try to use double teams. When Florida has double teamed in the past they have preferred softer doubles versus hard traps, something that can allow easy pass out opportunities. With the way Kentucky spaces the floor they often have a secondary big on the opposite block looking for a big to big pass, and soft double teams could be exposed by that style of double teaming. If Florida really wants to be disruptive with their double teams, they should be far more aggressive.
Even though it was Kentucky’s offense that won them the game against Florida that’s not even their strength. Statistically, they’re one of the least efficient offenses in the high major ranks and their lack of efficiency has been a big part of why they are struggling so badly.
Where Kentucky does thrive is on the defensive end. Coach Calipari’s Wildcat teams have always been defense first but with their offense so stagnant this season they have had to rely on their defense more than ever.
One player who has been impactful recently on defense is Isaiah Jackson. He had a tremendous showing against Florida in the first meeting with 4 blocks and he was a huge reason why the Gators couldn’t put up points. Florida shot 33% from two-point range in the first meeting, a frankly terrible number that will get you beat on most nights. The Gators couldn’t get anything going in the paint against Kentucky’s rim protectors and after a few early blocks you could see Florida’s players were hesitant to try to take the ball inside. Jackson plays a huge role in the rim protection game, using quick feet to catch drivers and his length and leaping ability to get his hands on the shot.
Currently Florida is second in the country in the country in block rate and Kentucky is fourth, meaning this game could be a huge block party.
While Kentucky has almost always been a man to man defense under John Calipari (he needs to prepare them for the man defense of the NBA, after all) they have been experimenting with zone defenses recently and it wouldn’t be shocking if they deployed one against the Gators. They have used a 2-3 zone recently to keep talented scorers out of the paint, and if Tre Mann is playing like he has recently than Kentucky might use the zone as a deterrent to his scoring.
Mann is going to be a key in this game as many of the other Gators are going to be out-sized or out-athleted by their check on the other side of the floor. Mann can hang athletically with anyone Kentucky puts on him and will also be able to shoot overtop of defenses that are clogging the paint to protect the rim at all costs.
He’ll also be an important player on the glass. Against Auburn he pulled in 12 defensive rebounds and made a focus of getting on the defensive glass considering the Tigers work so hard at offensive rebounding. Kentucky is the same way, a team that really goes after the offensive glass because they aren’t super efficient first shot scorers, so Florida’s guards will have to help out. Don’t be surprised if we see another big rebounding game from Mann who will be looking to get the ball before pushing up court.
This is an awfully important game for the Gators. In terms of SEC seeding, they would really like to stay in the fourth spot and get the double bye. They play their starters hard and Colin Castleton is currently nursing an ankle injury, so getting another day of rest would be fantastic. Additionally, Florida is currently in the NCAA Tournament picture and is playing for seeding. Since Saturday’s game is on the road it would be a quality win opportunity for the Gators and while it’s not the type of game that could gain them a seed line, right now they have to win the games they are favored in and this is one of them.
As well, mentally Florida could really use this game as they desperately don’t want to be swept by Kentucky. This has been the worst year at Kentucky for some time and getting swept by them would be devastating, whether for the Gators that will return to the team next year and see Kentucky again or for Mike White and his staff recruiting. If they’re going after the same kid Kentucky is and Calipari says “even in our worst year we swept the Gators” that’s a heck of a recruiting pitch.
There are plenty of reasons this game will be enjoyable, so be sure to tune in.