Coming off a big road win at Kentucky the Gators are on a three game winning streak that they’ll be looking to extend on Wednesday night against the Missouri Tigers.
Wednesday night is technically slated to be senior night in the O’Dome, but without any true seniors we can’t be totally sure what that’s going to look like. Tyree Appleby and Anthony Duruji are in their fourth years of college, but both have eligibility remaining that they are expected to use.
Whatever the case may be, Florida is heading back home for a game they’ll be looking to win to help secure a double bye in the SEC Tournament and better their resume for the NCAA Tournament.
Florida is currently third in the SEC at 9-5 with LSU just behind at 9-6 with the Gators holding the tie break. Tennessee, who the Gators will close out their season with, is right there at 9-7, and Missouri is 6th at 7-7. Of course, with various cancellations, the standings are looking a bit funky.
As is usually the case, the top 4 seeds will receive a double bye in the SEC Tournament which is something the Gators would love to have to rest tired legs, nurse injuries, and prepare for whoever they might face.
In terms of NCAA Tournament, Florida is somewhere in the jumbled mess that is the 6th to 8th seeds in the eyes of most prognosticators. Playing Missouri at home won’t be an opportunity for a huge win, but it would still be a solid one. Which brings us to a major point of conversation.
How good is Missouri?
This must be discussed, because there are really two minds when it comes to this.
First up–the AP Poll.
If you follow college basketball or even the SEC you’ll know that Missouri is currently ranked #24 in the nation as of Sunday, February 28th (though by the time you’re reading this they may have just fallen out), and that isn’t anything new. The Tigers entered the AP Poll early in the season and have been in it for almost the whole year, getting as high as a single digit ranking. Even if they’re out of the polls by the time they play Florida, they have spent nearly the entire season ranked.
So, that would suggest that they are a very good team.
However.
All the metrics are nowhere near as high on Missouri. According to popular analytics tool KenPom, the Tigers are the 47th best team in the country. That is echoed by the NET Rankings, the official sorting tool of the NCAA, where they are also 47th.
As you can see, there are some major differences between the eye test and the metrics when it comes to Coach Cuonzo Martin’s Tigers.
The case for the Tigers being really good is the number of quality wins they have. They beat Illinois, Oregon, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Alabama, and there aren’t many teams that have collected as many quality wins as that.
The case against them is that they lost to Auburn, Georgia, and Ole Miss, and only barely edged out a couple bad teams in TCU and Bradley, and narrowly beating bad opponents doesn’t do you huge favors in metrics who aren’t going to give you the benefit of “a win is a win.”
For this reason, despite the fact that Missouri has been in the AP Poll for most of the season and Florida hasn’t, the Gators are technically the better team with a #26 Net Ranking and they’ll be favored in this one. You might think that beating a team that has been ranked for most of the season would offer the Gators a chance at a marquee win but unfortunately, playing the 47th NET ranked team in the country is a chance for a decent win, but not a great one.
Under Cuonzo Martin the Tigers have been a team known for their defense, but scoring has always been a bit of an issue. This year, on a team loaded with veterans, their offense has finally come around.
The Tigers are the 12th most experienced team in the country, and the second among high majors. While none of their players came to college known as particularly potent scorers, experience has allowed them to learn ways to score and be effective.
Pick and roll is Missouri’s favorite way to attack and they run a whole lot of them, particularly with Xavier Pinson handling the rock and Jeremiah Tilmon setting the screen. Pinson isn’t a particularly dynamic scorer in the conventional sense, but he’s savvy at reading defenses and making right reads.
Often, the right read is to hit Tilmon who is as good a pick and roll big there is in the country.
What makes him so special is that he can hurt defenses in a number of ways after setting a screen. If he rolls all the way to the hoop and catches the ball in deep there isn’t much the defense can do with his 6’10, 260 pound frame and he’ll finish nearly every time. Missouri also loves to give him the ball on the short roll, having Pinson bounce the ball into him around the free throw line area where Tilmon can become a playmaker. He’s an excellent passer who can dissect a defense from that area, and if they allow him to play one on one and if he gets a smaller defender on his hip he can shield the ball all the way to the rim.
While the Tigers have been better offensively this season than in recent years they still have some limitations and the biggest one is shooting. They’re currently 270th in the country at three-point efficiency at 31.6%, something that can make them a bit easier to defend.
Dru Smith is their best shooter hitting 38% of his attempts, but he doesn’t shoot many of them. If they’re wide open he’ll take them but he’s not looking to run off screens and take shots off movement, so while Florida will want to be aware of him on the outside they don’t have to be concerned with Missouri running much for him.
Mark Smith takes a lot of threes, but he’s only hitting 33% of them. With the volume of threes he takes there is a chance he gets hot, but generally speaking he isn’t a particularly efficient shooter.
Missouri’s shooting issues are interesting considering Florida just played against Kentucky and used a 3-2 matchup zone where they dared Kentucky to shoot from the outside. With the Tigers also being a below average shooting team, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Florida playing the zone again.
On the other end, you know exactly what you’re going to see defensively from the Tigers. Cuonzo Martin has always been a staunch man to man defensive coach and once against that is the case. They play responsible, conservative man defense that doesn’t extend pressure or look to be too aggressive, they simply try to remain in sound position and make offenses score over a set defense.
This should make preparation a bit easier for Florida than some other scouts because they will know with relative certainty exactly what Missouri is going to do defensively and they should know what to do about it. Something that could give Florida problems is Missouri’s pick and roll defense as they will play drop coverage. Drop coverage is what Arkansas and South Carolina did to completely shut down the Gators and if they don’t have an alternative plan they could have issues with their pick and roll attack.
Missouri’s roster is one that is rather stout and muscular, but not long or athletic. They are physical and strong, but they don’t have quick or bouncy defenders. Players like Tre Mann and Tyree Appleby should have a speed advantage over anyone that will be guarding them and Florida should look to get them in positions where they can work on these weaker defenders. Mann is playing really well right now and without a natural matchup for him on the Missouri side he could be in position for another big game.
Whether it’s SEC or NCAA Tournament position this will be an important game for the Gators and most of all, they just want to be playing their best basketball right now and building momentum to postseason play. In recent years they have somewhat stumbled into the finish line with some late season hiccups and this year they’ll want to change that. It all goes down Wednesday in the O’Dome.