Florida had one of their most impressive games of the season on Wednesday coming away with a big win against Mississippi State and they’ll now try to keep the momentum rolling on Saturday against the Vanderbilt Commodores. SEC Scheduling didn’t end up being kind to the Gators who started their season with 4 of 5 games against projected NCAA Tournament teams (aided by a game with Ole Miss being postponed, of course) but they now get a bit of a break with some easier opponents. They’ll play Vanderbilt on Saturday before a quick turnaround to play Ole Miss on Monday, both teams not projected to make the Big Dance. The Ole Miss game is the rescheduled date from the earlier postponement so it was never expected that the Gators would have to play so many games in such a short span, but these are the circumstances and they’ll have to battle through it. After Ole Miss they’ll see Tennessee who is full of talent, so we’ll see how much energy they have left in the tank to compete in that one.
Making things even more difficult is the fact that the Gators will be without star center Colin Castleton for the time being due to a shoulder injury. In the post game press conference following the Mississippi State game Mike White said that the injury was significant, which could mean Castleton is out for a concerning amount of time. Shoulder injuries don’t often have short recovery times, so to hear the injury is significant suggests we likely won’t see him for a while, and with the Gators having so many games bunched together that lack of depth in the frontcourt could be an issue.
But, for the short term, it’s all about Saturday’s game against Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 10-7 on the year and 2-3 in the SEC. After only three wins in the SEC a year ago things are looking up in Nashville and they haven’t been a doormat in the league by any means. So far they have an impressive win over Arkansas and a not quite as impressive win against Georgia, and while they did get stomped by Kentucky who has been Final Four good, they were in close games with Tennessee and South Carolina.
One stunning win on their resume is a neutral site win over BYU, a team that has been in the top-25 of most predictive metrics all season long.
Things are slowly looking up for a Vanderbilt program that has had some rough years recently, and a large part of why is a much improved defense. After finishing 136th, 221st, and 116th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency the last three years the Commodores are up to 50th this year and it has allowed them to stay in pretty much every game they have been in this season.
A large reason they have been so successful is a drop pick and roll coverage that has protected the paint while also limiting catch and shoot three-pointers against. They really exaggerate this drop pick and roll coverage–where the big guarding the screener drops to the free throw line area while the player guarding the ball chases him over the screen, and so far it has been very effective and limiting opponents to lower value midrange attempts. The Gators just saw drop pick and roll coverage from South Carolina and had success against it, so it’s a good opportunity for them to continue that success against a team that plays similar, but even more exaggerated drop coverage.
Vanderbilt will also change up the pace by playing a somewhat aggressive 2-3 zone where their wings play high and into passing lanes. It’s definitely a different look and feel than the average 2-3 zone so they have been able to confuse a couple of teams into throwing the ball around loosely so the Gators will need to be prepared for it. The Commodores will also extend to three quarter court pressure and fall back into the zone, all in an attempt to burn time off the opponent’s shot clock.
Their pick and roll defense might be conservative, but in other elements of their defense the Commodores are very aggressive looking for deflections and turnovers. They’ll gamble a good amount and it has been successful for them but there is always a chance they’ll go all out for a steal and miss it, making the game 5 on 4 for a few seconds while that player recovers.
Offensively the Commodores feature one of the most talented scorers in the country in Scotty Pippen. Last year he toasted the Gators on three occasions, finishing with 23 points and 4 assists, 32 points and 6 assists, and 18 points and 6 assists getting pretty much whatever he wanted against whoever was guarding him. Vanderbilt was not a talented team, yet Scotty Pippen almost willed them to victory in two of those games against the Gators, so slowing him down has to be Florida’s biggest priority. The threat of the pull up three is always there for Pippen but where he is at his best, and where he torched the Gators last year, was his ability to drive the ball. Last year none of Florida’s perimeter options could match up with him on the outside and this year it will be up to some combination of Brandon McKissic, Myreon Jones, Tyree Appleby, and Kowacie Reeves to do so.
Overall Vanderbilt’s offense hasn’t been great, meaning this year’s squad is an inverse of the last couple of seasons where they have been able to score but struggled to guard anyone. They are pretty combustible, however, as they shoot a lot of threes. Even though they are 276th in the country in three-point percentage at 31.3%, they take the 26th most threes in the country, so they’ll live and die with how they either get hot or cold from deep. Given the fact they are going to be out-talented in a lot of their matchups, it’s a strategy built out of desperation that has had some success. Myles Stute is their best shooter at 41% from deep, and while he hasn’t shot well this year (31%), Trey Thomas is a player to watch out for. Thomas was ice cold to start the season but was a 40% shooter last year, so you know he’s ready to come alive. He has hit 42% of his threes in conference play so it appears he’s back to the shooter he has shown he can be, so he is someone to watch out for.
I know one of the questions you’re asking is “how will Castleton likely being out impact this game?”
Luckily for the Gators, Vanderbilt is not a good rebounding team, so they don’t project to hurt the Gators in that area. They do have a big bodied center in 6’10”, 235 pound Quentin Millora-Brown, and he is a quality defensive player but not someone who is a huge threat offensively. As the Gators try to figure out their center rotation without Castleton this will be a good opportunity for a few guys to get their chances to prove themselves.
For Florida’s key to the game, we need to look back to the three matchups last year.
Vanderbilt stayed in two of the three games, and it was all because they picked apart Florida’s pick and roll defense.
For that reason, pick and roll defense is definitely the key to the game for Florida who needs to improve in that area not just for this game, but for every game moving forward. After the Mississippi State game the Gators dropped to 48th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, not at all where the team wants to be. There is still work to be done on that end, and Vanderbilt is a good opportunity to start steering that in the right direction.
This game is on Saturday, January 22nd at 1 PM ET and will be televised on SEC Network.